NATO/RUSSIA

A London-based global security think tank has published a policy brief warning that NATO and Russia appear to be preparing to go to war with one another. The European Leadership Network (ELN) warns that military exercises by Russia and NATO have become part of a dangerous ‘action-reaction cycle’ that could accidentally elevate the chance of war.

The report argues, that: ‘Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia… Both the NATO and Russian exercises show that each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely (have) war plans in mind. Whilst spokespeople may maintain that these operations are targeted against hypothetical opponents, the nature and scale of them indicate otherwise.’

The policy brief says that while each side insists their exercises are defensive, the political fallout between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis has triggered a reactive cycle on either side in terms of military exercises. It suggests that each side is aiming to strengthen deterrence by ‘flexing their military might’, causing the other side to interpret this as provocation and responding with yet more military manoeuvres.

The brief uses two cases to illustrate its point. One is Russia’s snap exercise in March involving some 80,000 military personnel and the other is NATO’s Allied Shield exercise in June in which 15,000 personnel from 19 member states and three partner states took part. The report reads:

‘The focus of the exercises is on what each side sees as its most exposed areas, with NATO concentrating on the Baltic States and Poland whilst Russia is focusing primarily on the Arctic and High North, Kaliningrad, occupied Crimea, and its border areas with NATO members Estonia and Latvia.’

Russia has become increasingly proactive of late and has started calling all branches of its military to take part in active drills, with a strong focus on its Arctic territories and on the Baltic region. In February Baltic defence officials and experts expressed concern that Russia may be deliberately raising the alert level in Europe with its snap drills – by paving the way for an eventual attack on a Baltic capital.

The ELN report highlights repeatedly that NATO’s exercises are significantly smaller than Russia’s, although it points out  that this may be largely due to limited capability rather than a decision not to match Russia, whose entire force is permanently under one command (as opposed to the armed forces of NATO). The report also notes that Russia’s use of conscription allows it to quickly summon greater numbers of troops which ‘the predominantly professional armed forces of NATO countries simply cannot match.’

The authors do not suggest that the leadership of either side has made a decision to go to war or that a military conflict is inevitable, but says the changed profile of exercises is a fact and does play a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe.

Russia will have conducted more than 4000 exercises for 2015, which is over 10-times more than what NATO has planned for over the year. Indicative, too, is that Russia has incorporated nuclear and nuclear capable forces in its recent exercises.

Currently, Russia is hosting a series of international military games. This involves servicemen using its training courses to compete in tank and jet manoeuvres. Earlier this week, the Russian Defence Ministry called on 500 of its servicemen to practice amphibious assault in the Baltic.

NATO, meanwhile, is currently preparing for its Trident Juncture exercise which is set to engage over 36,000 troops in Spain, Portugal and Italy between October and November. NATO has been keen to highlight that it had announced this exercise ‘one year in advance’ and has invited international monitors to observe it through the OSCE.