Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, Society, United States

Abdulfattah el-Sisi: Egypt’s new political leader…

EGYPT

Once again, Egypt has a senior military officer in charge of the country’s affairs. Field Marshal Abdulfattah el-Sisi, recently promoted from the rank of General, has been elected with the support of 97 per cent of the voters (of a low turnout) and has been inaugurated into office. He officially stood down from his military appointment in contesting the presidency. For the past 60-years, ever since the Free Officers Movement overthrew King Farouk in 1952, the Egyptian government has had a senior military strongman at the helm. Successive leaders – Naguib, Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak – all came from the military, so on that basis el-Sisi’s political victory in now leading his country should come as no great surprise.

For many, though, given the political earthquake and subsequent tremors that have occurred over the past three years, and the way in which power has been handed over, will leave many feeling uncomfortable if not untoward. The high hopes of the Arab Spring and the resulting revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak were undone by the election of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohammed Morsi’s mandate suggested that the Arab world’s most populous country would become increasingly Islamised, and became a significant factor in his eventual deposition that came in the form of a military coup. But now the Brotherhood is proscribed once more and most of its leaders are in prison.

Whether President el-Sisi is to be remembered as another Arab tyrant will depend on how he utilises his unparalleled position of public dominance. Time will tell – and history will record – whether he is able to reform his country’s anachronistic and decrepit institutions and his ability to convert an inward-looking society into one that is more representative of the modern age. In the short-term, his priorities must be to overhaul the police and judiciary and to end the daily charades of how justice is dispensed in the courts.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Society, United States

Morsi ousted by military in Egypt…

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's insistence he would remain in power, the country's army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi’s insistence he would remain in power, the country’s army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

MORSI REMOVED

Egypt’s military have deposed the country’s first democratically elected president, installing the head of the country’s highest court as an interim leader.

General Abdel-Fatah El-Sisi of the Egyptian Army said the military was fulfilling its ‘historic responsibility’ to protect the country by ousting Mohamed Morsi, the Western-educated Islamist leader elected a year ago. The country’s constitution has been suspended and new parliamentary elections will be held. The head of the country’s Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, will replace Mr Morsi.

Mansour will have the power to issue constitutional declarations during the interim period and is charged with establishing a government that is ‘strong and diverse’. El-Sisi said that Morsi ‘did not achieve the goals of the people’ and failed to meet the demands of the generals by sharing power with his opposition.

The announcement was met with jubilation and fireworks by opponents who packed Tahrir Square, now the epicentre of two Egyptian revolts.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the long-suppressed Islamist movement whose political arm Mr Morsi led as a candidate, said the coup ‘wastes the will of the people and returns Egypt to tyranny.’

Before last night’s announcement, troops moved into key positions around the capital, closing off a bridge over the Nile River and surrounded supporters of Mr Morsi who had descended onto Rabaa Adawya Square.

Morsi, a U.S.-educated religious conservative, was elected president in June 2012. His approval ratings, though, have plummeted as his government has failed to keep order or revive Egypt’s economy. The chaos and anarchy, including open sexual assaults on women in Egypt’s streets, has driven away tourists and investors, while opponents say Morsi’s rule was becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a leading opposition figure, said Mr Morsi’s removal was a ‘correction for the way of the revolution’ that drove Egypt’s former leader Hosni Mubarak from office in 2011.

Mr ElBaradei says that by having early presidential elections will allow Egyptians to build together by agreeing on a democratic constitution. This, he says, will guarantee the country’s freedoms.

The Egyptian military dominated the country for more than six decades and took direct control for 18-months after Mubarak was deposed. Following a previous demand that Morsi offer concessions to the opposition, it gave him 48 hours at the start of this week to order reforms.

As the ultimatum deadline approached, Morsi offered to form an interim coalition government to oversee parliamentary elections and revise the constitution that was enacted in January.

But shortly after the deadline, an aide to Mr Morsi, Essam El Haddad, said that a coup was underway and warned that the generals risked bloodshed by moving against Morsi.

Others, however, such as Naguib Abadeer, a member of the opposition Free Egyptians Party, said what was under way was ‘not by any means a military coup’ but more of a ‘revolution’. Some have even said Morsi has been beaten by mob rule.

Morsi lost his legitimacy in November, when he declared courts could not review his decrees and ousted the country’s prosecutor-general. And concerns were raised that the Muslim Brotherhood had ‘hijacked the vote of the people’ by running on a religious platform, decrying that elections had not been democratic.

The United States, Egypt’s leading ally, has urged all parties to come to a peaceful resolution to the ‘tense and fast-moving’ situation.

Washington has supplied Egypt’s military with tens of billions in support and equipment spanning more than 30 years. Under U.S. law, that support could be cut off if a coup has materialised, but the State Department has said that a thorough analysis will be required before any decision is made on continued support for Egypt. Washington itself has not described the military takeover as a coup.

Mr Morsi’s government was already crumbling before his departure. Five cabinet ministers had already resigned this week, including Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr. Former Prosecutor-General Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud will meet today with the Supreme Judicial Council to be re-confirmed in the post. Mahmoud had been ousted following the 2011 revolution through changes that Mr Morsi had made to last November’s constitutional declarations. But Mahmoud’s return will signify a tilt towards Mubrak-era officials over Muslim Brotherhood loyalists.

In addition, 30 members of the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament, have resigned.

Mr Morsi’s numerous and adamant supporters point out that he is the legitimate president and say that opponents seeking to depose him are circumventing the democratic process.

A FRAGILE PEACE

The Muslim Brotherhood Islamists will not take kindly to their government being overthrown by a military style coup just 12-months after it was installed by a popular vote. When Hosni Mubarak was toppled from power in 2011, there was always a danger that the West would cheer on the revolution that might unwittingly have unleashed the forces of radical Islam. So it proved.

Yet, the election last year of a Muslim Brotherhood government should not have come as any great surprise. Mubarak had so dismantled the normal political processes inside Egypt that the only two remaining institutions were the army and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, though effectively banned, had worked away for 80 years at the grass-roots level and was the only party in a position to profit from the country’s move to democracy.

Crucially, however, what President Mohammed Morsi failed to understand was that his electoral victory obliged him to reach out to those who did not support the Brotherhood. Mr Morsi was in a position to claim democratic legitimacy, but only up to a point. As the beneficiary of a revolution, he should have led an inclusive administration that recognised and acknowledged the powerful secular instincts of a large section of Egyptian society.

Instead, what had been witnessed was a country being taken on a journey down the road to an Islamist future that alienated many of those who had been at the forefront of the 2011 uprising. The rights of women were curtailed, sharia law was imposed and the tourists on whom Egypt’s economy relied stayed away.

Last weekend, the people once again poured onto the streets and into Tahrir Square demanding reforms. Morsi’s obduracy dug in further and, with the country on the brink, the military stepped in. Once the generals had issued their ultimatum to Egypt’s political leaders to sort out their differences, Mr Morsi’s fate was unquestionably sealed.

The constitution has now been suspended and new elections will be held to form a government of national unity, which might at least spare Egypt the prospect of a ghastly civil war. We should remember, though, that the last time an army in an Arab country overturned the election of an Islamist government was in Algeria in 1991. That ushered in a decade-long civil war in which some 200,000 people died.

Despite the celebrations on the streets, the potential for serious violence in Egypt cannot be dismissed. The Islamists will not take kindly to their government being removed by military force just a year after it was installed with a popular vote of more than 50 per cent – a legitimacy that no government in Egypt had achieved for generations. Why the Islamists might ask, should they now take the ballot box seriously when their mandate has been overturned by force?

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