Tag Archives: Mohamed Morsi

Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, United States

Why has the U.S. taken this long to cut aid to Egypt?

U.S. AID TO EGYPT

Washington’s decision to suspend some of its military aid to Egypt is long overdue. By all accounts it should have happened months ago following the military style coup in Egypt that led to the fall of President Mohamed Morsi. America’s decision, however, is still only a symbolic gesture, one that the Obama administration acknowledges will have scant impact on either the regime’s crackdown on the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood or the pace of returning Cairo to democracy. Some commentators may view it as a carefully calibrated balancing act between the need to preserve US interests in the region and the desire to uphold the democratic principles it purports to value.

Had Washington’s decision come three months ago, immediately after the ousting of Mr Morsi, it might have carried some weight. Instead, the American administration refused to use the word coup, and has continued to do so even as it unveiled belated sanctions against the country. At the same time, Egypt’s military-backed regime has moved at its own pace, unhindered and unrestricted in its approach. Yet, whilst measures are being drawn up for a return of normal government – which are likely to be approved in a forthcoming referendum – most of the Brotherhood leadership are behind bars and Islamic media outlets are shut down. Such measures are likely to amount to very little.

Following Washington’s belated reprimand, Cairo announced almost at once Mr Morsi’s trial and declared that Egypt ‘will not surrender to American pressure’.

The US move may even actually boost the regime’s popularity, reducing what many see as a humiliating foreign dependency. Neither will it greatly affect the security balance in the region. Israel is agonised because such a cut in U.S. aid might jeopardise the 1979 treaty upon which its subsequent ‘cold peace’ with Egypt has rested.

The referendum may give the United States a pretext in resuming full military assistance to Cairo, a proviso Washington appears to be calling for. However, this temporary interruption in aid will not only end up pleasing no one, but will demonstrate once and for all how little influence the US wields in the most populous Arab country. To have had any real impact, America should have made its decision months ago.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, Society

Egypt’s future hangs by a thread…

HOPE

The present situation in Egypt looks grim, both in the wider picture and in the detail.

Tensions in Cairo remain high following the deaths outside the Presidential Guard barracks on Monday, fatalities which included women and children among the dead. The prospect of any government being formed soon looks extremely remote.

Hazem el-Beblawi, the 76-year-old former finance minister, named last week as the interim Prime Minister, has struggled in his task to form a cabinet. That task has been made more difficult due to the issue of arrest warrants by the state prosecutor for senior figures in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Following the removal of Mohammad Morsi, Egypt’s deposed leader, it was suggested that the priority for the interim administration was to form a broad-based coalition government, and one that was reflective of Egypt’s political diversity. President Morsi had not sought allies beyond his immediate supporters, a crucial reason as to why he was removed following millions who had taken to the streets in protest. It can hardly have been helpful, then, that a slew of new arrest warrants was the best way to go about fostering peace and reconciliation. The Brotherhood’s political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, had already refused to join a unity government – on the not so unreasonable grounds that it had led a democratically elected government that was unlawfully removed.

On Tuesday, the British Foreign Secretary’s statement in the House of Commons highlighted some of the difficulties. Mr Hague has urged Egyptians to move swiftly to hold free and fair elections, as well as working towards openness, democracy and economic reform. Whilst the sound-bites are sensible, they must ring pretty hollow to those Egyptians who thought they already had a freely elected government following the election of Mr Morsi 12-months ago.

Mr Hague also skirted around the uncomfortable fact that the army had seized power and the refusal by some, notably the United States, in referring to the takeover as a coup. The feeling that the Western world promotes and lauds democracy elsewhere, until it produces something they don’t want, will only have been reinforced with what is happening in Egypt.

In the short-to-medium term at least the situation in Egypt seems likely to remain highly problematic. In the unlikely event that all parties and vested interest groups can be persuaded to take part in amending the constitution, approving it in a government-run referendum will undoubtedly leave some to question the authority of any newly formed government – built as it will on the back of an army takeover.

Over the past week, Egypt’s democracy has not been strengthened. Following the carnage on Monday, descent into a Syria-style bloody civil war seemed inevitable. But whilst the confrontation at the Presidential Guard barracks, in which more than 50 people died and dozens of others were injured, it also seemed to shock all sides into stepping back from the brink. It is too soon to be abandoning hope.

Rather than issuing new arrest warrants, the authorities should be exploiting this pause to offer some kind of peace reconciliation – for example, by starting to release detainees.

Egypt’s compelling sense of national identity is a permanent and immovable asset. Unlike many states in the region, it has a common history going back millennia; it has borders that are well defined, and there are no serious challenges from ethnic minority groups. Egypt’s differences are invariably religious and political which, though it doesn’t make them any less sharp, does still leave Egypt’s national identity intact. The interim administration as well as any new government needs to capitalise on this and should provide a roadmap in helping Egypt to complete its revolution.

However untidy Egyptian society has become of late, the taste that many in Egypt have developed over the past two-and-a-half years for freedom and democracy can be a force for good as well as ill. As we have seen it veered all too easily when Mr Morsi was deposed a week ago, into a rule by a discontented mob. Such proof of political engagement, however, could also deter the military from the excesses to which it is prone.

There are slivers of hope for Egypt’s future, but hope is all that is currently on offer.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Society, United States

Morsi ousted by military in Egypt…

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's insistence he would remain in power, the country's army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi’s insistence he would remain in power, the country’s army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

MORSI REMOVED

Egypt’s military have deposed the country’s first democratically elected president, installing the head of the country’s highest court as an interim leader.

General Abdel-Fatah El-Sisi of the Egyptian Army said the military was fulfilling its ‘historic responsibility’ to protect the country by ousting Mohamed Morsi, the Western-educated Islamist leader elected a year ago. The country’s constitution has been suspended and new parliamentary elections will be held. The head of the country’s Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, will replace Mr Morsi.

Mansour will have the power to issue constitutional declarations during the interim period and is charged with establishing a government that is ‘strong and diverse’. El-Sisi said that Morsi ‘did not achieve the goals of the people’ and failed to meet the demands of the generals by sharing power with his opposition.

The announcement was met with jubilation and fireworks by opponents who packed Tahrir Square, now the epicentre of two Egyptian revolts.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the long-suppressed Islamist movement whose political arm Mr Morsi led as a candidate, said the coup ‘wastes the will of the people and returns Egypt to tyranny.’

Before last night’s announcement, troops moved into key positions around the capital, closing off a bridge over the Nile River and surrounded supporters of Mr Morsi who had descended onto Rabaa Adawya Square.

Morsi, a U.S.-educated religious conservative, was elected president in June 2012. His approval ratings, though, have plummeted as his government has failed to keep order or revive Egypt’s economy. The chaos and anarchy, including open sexual assaults on women in Egypt’s streets, has driven away tourists and investors, while opponents say Morsi’s rule was becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a leading opposition figure, said Mr Morsi’s removal was a ‘correction for the way of the revolution’ that drove Egypt’s former leader Hosni Mubarak from office in 2011.

Mr ElBaradei says that by having early presidential elections will allow Egyptians to build together by agreeing on a democratic constitution. This, he says, will guarantee the country’s freedoms.

The Egyptian military dominated the country for more than six decades and took direct control for 18-months after Mubarak was deposed. Following a previous demand that Morsi offer concessions to the opposition, it gave him 48 hours at the start of this week to order reforms.

As the ultimatum deadline approached, Morsi offered to form an interim coalition government to oversee parliamentary elections and revise the constitution that was enacted in January.

But shortly after the deadline, an aide to Mr Morsi, Essam El Haddad, said that a coup was underway and warned that the generals risked bloodshed by moving against Morsi.

Others, however, such as Naguib Abadeer, a member of the opposition Free Egyptians Party, said what was under way was ‘not by any means a military coup’ but more of a ‘revolution’. Some have even said Morsi has been beaten by mob rule.

Morsi lost his legitimacy in November, when he declared courts could not review his decrees and ousted the country’s prosecutor-general. And concerns were raised that the Muslim Brotherhood had ‘hijacked the vote of the people’ by running on a religious platform, decrying that elections had not been democratic.

The United States, Egypt’s leading ally, has urged all parties to come to a peaceful resolution to the ‘tense and fast-moving’ situation.

Washington has supplied Egypt’s military with tens of billions in support and equipment spanning more than 30 years. Under U.S. law, that support could be cut off if a coup has materialised, but the State Department has said that a thorough analysis will be required before any decision is made on continued support for Egypt. Washington itself has not described the military takeover as a coup.

Mr Morsi’s government was already crumbling before his departure. Five cabinet ministers had already resigned this week, including Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr. Former Prosecutor-General Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud will meet today with the Supreme Judicial Council to be re-confirmed in the post. Mahmoud had been ousted following the 2011 revolution through changes that Mr Morsi had made to last November’s constitutional declarations. But Mahmoud’s return will signify a tilt towards Mubrak-era officials over Muslim Brotherhood loyalists.

In addition, 30 members of the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament, have resigned.

Mr Morsi’s numerous and adamant supporters point out that he is the legitimate president and say that opponents seeking to depose him are circumventing the democratic process.

A FRAGILE PEACE

The Muslim Brotherhood Islamists will not take kindly to their government being overthrown by a military style coup just 12-months after it was installed by a popular vote. When Hosni Mubarak was toppled from power in 2011, there was always a danger that the West would cheer on the revolution that might unwittingly have unleashed the forces of radical Islam. So it proved.

Yet, the election last year of a Muslim Brotherhood government should not have come as any great surprise. Mubarak had so dismantled the normal political processes inside Egypt that the only two remaining institutions were the army and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, though effectively banned, had worked away for 80 years at the grass-roots level and was the only party in a position to profit from the country’s move to democracy.

Crucially, however, what President Mohammed Morsi failed to understand was that his electoral victory obliged him to reach out to those who did not support the Brotherhood. Mr Morsi was in a position to claim democratic legitimacy, but only up to a point. As the beneficiary of a revolution, he should have led an inclusive administration that recognised and acknowledged the powerful secular instincts of a large section of Egyptian society.

Instead, what had been witnessed was a country being taken on a journey down the road to an Islamist future that alienated many of those who had been at the forefront of the 2011 uprising. The rights of women were curtailed, sharia law was imposed and the tourists on whom Egypt’s economy relied stayed away.

Last weekend, the people once again poured onto the streets and into Tahrir Square demanding reforms. Morsi’s obduracy dug in further and, with the country on the brink, the military stepped in. Once the generals had issued their ultimatum to Egypt’s political leaders to sort out their differences, Mr Morsi’s fate was unquestionably sealed.

The constitution has now been suspended and new elections will be held to form a government of national unity, which might at least spare Egypt the prospect of a ghastly civil war. We should remember, though, that the last time an army in an Arab country overturned the election of an Islamist government was in Algeria in 1991. That ushered in a decade-long civil war in which some 200,000 people died.

Despite the celebrations on the streets, the potential for serious violence in Egypt cannot be dismissed. The Islamists will not take kindly to their government being removed by military force just a year after it was installed with a popular vote of more than 50 per cent – a legitimacy that no government in Egypt had achieved for generations. Why the Islamists might ask, should they now take the ballot box seriously when their mandate has been overturned by force?

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