ECONOMIC RECOVERY

…The Federal Reserve maintains its quantitative easing programme, but the implications of a taper were felt around the world

The spectacle and irony of the world’s financial markets shooting upwards in response to reports that the global economy is in less than rude health than had been thought appears paradoxical.

The surprise decision this week by the Federal Reserve to maintain its monthly $85 billion quantitative easing programme – the process by which money is artificially printed – indicates that U.S. monetary policymakers are far from convinced by the incipient American recovery. Whilst Washington has reported a much improved unemployment rate of 7.3 per cent, that is still considered to be too high, and more needs to be done before the recovery can be deemed sustainable. The uncertainty of rate-setters on the Fed’s Open Market Committee is undeniable as evidenced through their downgraded growth forecasts up until the end of 2014. Yet, from baulking at the downbeat assessment, investors from Tokyo to London have remained in bullish mood.

Their relief is perhaps not entirely irrational. The implications of Ben Bernanke’s suggestion in June that the Federal Reserve would start ‘tapering’ its Q.E. programme and stimulatory bond-buying some time before the end of the year were felt around the world. Emerging economies, for instance, particularly in Asia, saw their currencies plummet as money was pulled out in favour of newly rising, and much safer, US markets. Nor was the developed world any more insulated. Even though the Fed has not yet done anything, just the prospect of a U.S. taper has sharply sent long-term interest rates upwards in anticipation.

There are two lessons to be taken here. First, for all the new-found economic optimism, whatever green shoots there are (either here or elsewhere in the world), remain about as fragile as they can be. And secondly, the route from where we are now back to (unstimulated) pre-crisis normality will be an uneven and bumpy journey.