European Union, NATO, Russia, Turkey, United States

Russia and Turkey’s rapprochement

RUSSIA/TURKEY

Intro: For Russia, this is an opportunity to drive a hard wedge between Turkey, NATO and the EU

The unfolding diplomatic rapprochement between Russia and Turkey is likely to become a significant challenge for the European Union and NATO. For centuries now, these two countries have remained implacably opposed to each other. Efforts just a decade ago to forge a strategic partnership were curtailed by the civil war that has been raging in Syria. With Moscow clearly propping up Bashar al-Assad, Ankara either stayed out or implicitly supported his enemies. In more recent times, relations hit another low point last November when Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber near the Syrian border for violating Turkey’s airspace. Russia imposed sanctions and the damage to relations between the two countries seemed irreparable.

But even before events last month in which an attempted military coup failed, President Erdogan had decided he could no longer afford a cold war of attrition and stalemate with Moscow and began making overtures with the Kremlin. The putsch appears to have expedited matters: yesterday Mr Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin to agree the normalising of relations. This will send shock waves through the EU at a time of unprecedented uncertainty.

For Russia, this is an opportunity to drive a hard wedge between Turkey, NATO and the EU and will help to abate Russian anger over the jet incident. President Putin must recognise in Mr Erdogan a leader cut from the same cloth – a democratically elected nationalist who has been behaving more like a despot.

Mr Erdogan’s ruthless purge of opponents after the thwarted coup has alarmed EU leaders who had encouraged Ankara to believe it could join the European Union at some future point and had pledged to introduce visa-free access for Turkish travellers to the Schengen area. No date, however, has ever been set or given for either and several EU countries have made it abundantly clear they would veto Turkey’s accession citing its human rights record, loss of press freedom and other economic shortcomings. Angela Merkel of Germany has been desperate to keep both options open in order to stop Turkey reneging on a deal to keep Syrian refugees from crossing into Europe.

But Mr Erdogan seems to have been cooling towards Europe, none of whose leaders have been to Ankara since the failed coup. Turkey’s leader is seeking alliances elsewhere. Improving relations between Russia and Turkey will have significant implications both for policy on Syria and for NATO itself. The US nuclear base at Incirlik is a key part of western defences, but, if Turkey were to leave its loss would be a serious blow to the organisation.

These developments will be concerning for European leaders. But for the Russian president this is a chance to cause fresh consternation in the capitals of Europe and in Washington. Mr Putin seems certain to grab a gift horse that couldn’t have come at a better time for his own interests.

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Russia, Syria, United Nations, United States

Aleppo is on the brink of annihilation…

SYRIA

Intro: The Syrian government has demonstrated time and again how little it cares for international humanitarian laws

Aleppo is now more at a critical juncture that it has ever been since the start of Syria’s internecine civil war five years ago. Aleppo’s worsening situation comes at a bad moment when western attention has been turned sharply on terrorism in Europe and the impending US presidential election. Syria, however, is now demanding immediate attention too. What has been happening recently in Aleppo could be a decisive turning point in the conflict; any diplomatic hopes of whatever remain in negotiating a solution is fast deteriorating. An estimated 200,000 to 300,000 people are trapped in Aleppo’s eastern neighbourhoods, which are now entirely surrounded by Syrian government forces of Bashar al-Assad.  These troops are being assisted in their offensive by Russian air power and Iranian-controlled militias. Alarmingly, no food, no medical aid, nor any humanitarian assistance has been able to reach the population of Aleppo’s rebel-held territory for several weeks, because of the magnitude and intensity of the ongoing military onslaught.

Aleppo is of historical significance. It was once Syria’s second largest city, and it has become one of the key symbols of rebel resistance to the Assad regime since 2012. It has been a long-held objective of government forces to crush and obliterate Aleppo, and, if nothing is done to stop Assad’s forces advancing such a disaster seems imminent. That would not just be a defeat for the rebels, many of whom which have received western support, but perhaps an irreversible defeat for the uprising. Aleppo is staring into the abyss with the prospect of a new, humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions unfurling in Syria.

Aleppo

Map depicting Aleppo in Syria and surrounding countries.

With Aleppo encircled, the tragedy is being exasperated following the tightening of the knot in recent days by government forces whose aim has been to starve or empty it. Aleppo has been so ruthlessly shelled and bombed that it has become an inferno for those desperate people struggling among the ruins. There are hardly any doctors left in the city, and the last remaining hospital has been destroyed. UN agencies say food stocks are barely sufficient to last for more than three weeks.

The Syrian government and its Russian allies have resorted to a tactic of siege and starvation that has been used previously in Syria, but they are now doing it on a much larger and openly deliberate and provocative way. Their announcement of “humanitarian corridors” for civilians and rebels who would want to flee the area must be exposed as a cynical ruse. No one should be surprised that Aleppo’s population has not rushed towards these exit corridors, which have not in any case materialised on the ground. The Syrian government has demonstrated time and again how little it cares for international humanitarian laws. Assad’s machine of repression makes no distinction whatsoever between armed combatants and civilians. Tens of thousands of civilians have died while being held in detention centres. The announcement by Syrian and Russian officials without consulting or even warning UN agencies in advance is implicit proof that they want no external witnesses to their misdeeds.

Aleppo is on the brink of annihilation and the siege must be urgently lifted. International pressure is void of any credibility and its responses to a dire and stricken situation has been pitifully pathetic. It must put proper pressure on Russia to force Syrian troops to retreat, so that lives can be saved. The fate of Aleppo’s inhabitants, however, may now depend to a large degree on how global public opinion can now be mobilised. Saving Aleppo from utter destruction is not only a humanitarian imperative, but also central to any thin chance of a settlement in Syria ever being salvaged.

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Arts, Drama

Lateral Thinking Drama: ‘Going For Gold’

GOING FOR GOLD

The two shiny gold ingots that Rodney and Carla withdrew from the bank’s safe

ONE

CARLA MET RODNEY while she was doing a postgraduate degree at Cornell University. She was studying the formation of atolls around the Pacific Rim, and he was doing research for a doctorate in geology. They had met at a Christmas party that her professor was giving at the end of term. Carla had been bored and was about to leave when she saw Rodney walk in. He had a confident air about him and she felt a strong, overpowering attraction. She threw her coat across the arm of a sofa and went to get a beer out of the fridge.

Rodney was very friendly when she introduced herself and soon they were talking in an excited manner about their respective studies and degrees. Carla told Rodney about her interest in the circular reefs formed by sunken volcanoes, and Rodney told her about his passion for what he called “the cooling rock”. He told her about a grant he was applying for which would allow him to complete his thesis in Tahiti.

“Tahit!” Carla exclaimed. “It’s a dream of mine to go to Tahiti. It’s a hot spot for atolls because of all the volcanic activity on the islands.”

“If I get this grant,” Rodney said, fuelled by alcohol and inspired by a growing sense of curiosity about the woman he was speaking to, “I’ll take you with me.”

“Is that a promise?” Carla asked.

Rodney put a hand over his heart and raised two fingers. “Scout’s honour,” he said, then bent down and kissed her on the forehead.

TWO

EIGHT MONTHS LATER, Carla and Rodney were married; and in the Autumn of that year, they moved to Tahiti.

Carla and Rodney rented a small, secluded bungalow tucked away in the jungle at the foot of an extinct volcano. They would set out in the morning to climb to the top and gather lava samples, then Carla would lay out a lunch of sandwiches and fruit salad. On one of their excursions, they discovered a deep gorge with a river flowing through it not far from the house. They came across an old tattered rope bridge suspended eighty feet above the raging water.

“This must be the bridge the old man was telling me about,” Rodney said.

“Oh, let’s cross it,” Carla pleaded.

“I can’t,” Rodney said. “I’m too heavy. Apparently the bridge can only hold a maximum of 125 lbs.”

“I don’t weigh that much,” Carla said and stepped out onto the bridge.

“Please come back, Carla,” Rodney pleaded. “You’re making me nervous.”

THREE

ONE DAY, a parcel arrived in the mail. It contained a letter from a solicitor informing Rodney that his father was dead. Carla was shocked.

“You told me your father died eight years ago,” Carla said to Rodney.

“In a manner of speaking, he did,” Rodney replied. “We fell out over money, which was typical because my father is a miser.”

“Was a miser,” Carla corrected him.

“We could have been very rich,” Rodney said.

“What do you mean?”

“My parents had a lot of money,” he explained. “When my mother died, I became the sole inheritor of my father’s wealth. I was nineteen and in my first year at college. I was already studying geology. My father wanted me to give up my studies and work as an apprentice is his textiles factory. He wanted to pass on the business, but I refused. I had no interest in textiles, or working for my father for that matter. Things escalated, and we came to blows. That was the last time I saw him. The papers came later, but he legally disowned me.”

“I can’t believe you never mentioned this to me,” Carla said and sat down. “Is that all the letter says?”

“No,” Rodney said. “There’s a receipt from the bank and a key. Something’s been transferred to a safety deposit box here, but it doesn’t say what it is.”

FOUR

THAT AFTERNOON, Carla and Rodney went down to the bank and handed the slip to a teller. She escorted them into a safe and withdrew a long shallow box and handed it to Rodney. It was very heavy. Rodney looked at the bank teller and she excused herself so they could be in private. Rodney placed the box on a shelf and inserted the key. He opened the lid and his eyes grew wide in amazement.

“What is it?” Carla asked.

Rodney withdrew two shiny gold ingots from the box and held them up for her to see. He turned them over in his hands. On the bottom was etched the weight of each bar of gold. They weighed nine pounds each.

Carla put the ingots into her bag. They thanked the bank teller and drove to their favourite restaurant. Rodney ordered a bottle of champagne and placed the two ingots on the table where he could get a better look at them. When the waiter glanced at the gleaming bars on the table, Rodney grabbed him by the arm and said, “God, man. It’s pure gold.”

The waiter was stunned. He asked if he could hold one, then he called the bartender over. Soon everybody at the restaurant had got up to take a look. Carla had never seen so many greedy eyes. She started to feel penned in by the crowd, unable to breathe. She wriggled out of her seat and pushed her way out of the circle of people that had gathered at their table. She went to the bathroom and splashed cold water on her face. This was bad news; she wished the letter had never arrived.

That night, Rodney and Carla had a fight. Rodney didn’t feel like sleeping so he took the car and drove down to the ocean to walk along the beach. He was ashamed of his reaction to the gold, and the sea had always had a calming effect on him. He promised to take the ingots back to the bank the very next morning and sell them. He decided to donate half the money to an environmental charity, and to put the rest into a separate account for when he and Carla had children.

Back at the bungalow Carla paced the porch waiting for Rodney to return. It had started to rain and Carla held her hand out to catch the cool drops in her palm. She felt nervous being left alone with the gold ingots and waited impatiently for her husband to come home.

While Carla was out on the front porch, two men broke into the house. They had heard about the gold from a friend who had been at the restaurant earlier that evening. They had been watching the house and seen the car speed down the driveway and figured that nobody was home. Carla jumped when she heard their voices, then crouched down under the living room window. She heard a man say, “Where do you think they put it?”

“How am I supposed to know?” another man answered.

“Try the bathroom,” the first man said. “I’ll check the bedroom.”

Carla wanted to jump off the porch and run away, but then she remembered what Rodney had said earlier that evening. For the last year Carla had been wanting to get pregnant, but Rodney always said they couldn’t afford a baby. That night, he had agreed that now was a good time. Carla knew that the only reason he had said this was because of the gold, and she had become mad at him for being so materialistic. But now she understood why it was so important to him; the money would allow them to start a family. Suddenly the gold became very important to her too.

Carla crept back inside the bungalow and down the hall towards the kitchen. She had put the gold ingots back inside her bag after Rodney had stormed out, and left it on the kitchen table. Carla seized her bag and ran back down the hall towards the front door. As she passed the doorway to her bedroom, one of the robbers looked up and saw her.

“It’s her!” he yelled. “Don’t let her get away!”

Carla burst through the front door and out into the dark night. She could hear the robbers close on her heels, yelling and stumbling through the undergrowth. She found herself running down the path towards the gorge and could hear the flowing river in the distance ahead of her. She needed a way to elude the robbers and thought of the old rope bridge that crossed the chasm. She remembered that the bridge could only withstand a maximum of 125 lbs. She had weighed herself recently and knew that she weighed 110 lbs.

When Carla got to the bridge, she stopped. The robbers were quickly gaining on her. She took her shoes off, then rummaged through her bag and withdrew the two gold ingots. She knew they weighed 9 lbs each. She didn’t want to part with them but she couldn’t carry both bars across at the same time or the bridge would break. She realised that she didn’t have enough time to make two trips, and she couldn’t throw the bars because the ravine was too wide. Carla held her breath and listened to the river roaring eighty feet below.

She looked back towards the jungle. She could just see the two men emerging from the trees. Suddenly she had an idea; it was easy after all. She was going to escape.

How did Carla manage to cross the gorge with both gold ingots?

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