NORTH KOREA

While most Western political and diplomatic attention is currently focused on Syria, both in terms of the chemical weapons attack and in the aftermath of the U.S. missile strike, a potentially greater drama is taking place thousands of miles away in the East China Sea. A U.S. battle group, headed by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, has arrived off the Korean peninsula in a show of military strength intended to warn Kim Jong-un of the consequences of his continued provocations and sabre-rattling.

President Donald Trump has indicated that Syria is less of an issue for the United States than North Korea, which continues to pose as a nemesis and direct threat to American allies in the region and even to the US west coast. In view of what transpired in Syria, the world needs to be prepared for the unexpected here, too. Mr Trump has hardly hidden his anger or intent in dealing with Pyongyang. Using his preferred vehicle for issuing executive statements – social media networking site Twitter – he stated: ‘North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them.’

In another message, he appeared to link a trade rapprochement with China if Beijing were willing to help contain the threat posed by North Korea. Since Chinese president Xi Jinping was in America for trade talks with Mr Trump last week it must be assumed that part of their discussions involved tactics for dealing with North Korea. The U.S. have a clear national security interest in stopping further conflagration and proliferation of its nuclear weapons programme and China has a clear regional interest in averting the chaos that would be caused by a war on the peninsula.

A common approach, however, does appear to be developing: talks between Chinese and South Korean ministers have agreed ‘strong additional measures’ if Kim Jong-un conducts further nuclear or missile tests. China has already imposed economic sanctions including a ban of all imports of North Korean coal.

Pyongyang’s irrationality makes it essential that America does not act unilaterally. This cannot be allowed to happen. President Xi was sufficiently concerned to telephone the White House and assure Mr Trump that China was fully ‘committed to the goal of denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula’ but has also emphasised the need to resolve problems through peaceful means. A flashpoint could come within the next 48 hours, birthday of the state’s founder Kim Il-sung, or later this month when the ruling party celebrates its 85th anniversary. If the regime decides to fire missiles to mark one of these occasions, China and America must respond in concert.

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