BRITAIN
If the Prime Minister manages to survive what is undoubtedly the most turbulent period in British political history in over 40 years, the words ‘strong and stable’ will haunt the rest of Theresa May’s career in public office – particularly after promising us stability.
If things weren’t so serious they would be laughable. Several warning signs over the past few years now look in hindsight to have been more like sirens. Mrs May backed the Remain campaign, until she launched her leadership campaign with the slogan ‘Brexit means Brexit’. There was no need for a general election, she insisted, until she changed her mind. In an attempt to garner support from undecided voters, the Conservative Party wheeled out the sensitive subject of social care costs and how they intended to seek a bigger contribution from those who need support. Appearing without warning after the Conservative manifesto had been launched, the policy was then re-written just as abruptly following an outcry from traditional Tory voters.
But what we have in place of stability is inconsistency, and a real sense that Mrs May will do whatever she thinks necessary to protect herself. Whilst her immediate shift on Brexit was a recognition of a scenario she could not change because of the EU referendum result, no benefit of the doubt can be given over her about-turns on holding an election, and the so-called dementia tax. These reversals were motivated by her desire for power, rather than what was best for the country.
May’s self-interest was again to the fore over the last few days as her political advisers paid the price for electoral failure. The threat of a leadership challenge hovered over the Prime Minister if she did not remove them: many questions have been asked over the level of power these unelected advisers have been wielding, who were also central in the writing of the disastrous social care policy. And now we have the Prime Minister attempting to negotiate a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party . . . to keep her in power.
Yet, this posturing and scrambling around to find a way of securing a Commons majority is likely to be her undoing. The DUP maybe popular in Northern Ireland, but many in the rest of the UK will find the party’s values unpalatable. This includes senior figures in Mrs May’s own party, including former prime minister Sir John Major, and Scottish leader Ruth Davidson and Scottish Secretary David Mundell who have both voiced concern over the DUP’s position on gay rights.
Others, too, will likely object to the DUP’s opposition to women’s rights to have an abortion, and the influence of a party which attracts support from a loyalist paramilitary group.
There is a danger for the Conservative Party that the longer Mrs May clings on the more she will alienate the electorate, and the more attractive an opposition Jeremy Corbyn becomes. And with a further general election looking likely, the Prime Minister’s desperate measures are storing up trouble.
Assembling her Cabinet yesterday before attending a 1922 Committee meeting, the Prime Minister has endeavoured to press on with business as usual. Mrs May told her MPs she would serve them as long as they want her. As the full consequences of a deal with the DUP become clear, including the concessions to be given, she is likely to find that her own future, like most of her recent actions, doesn’t have many prospects beyond the short-term.