ENERGY RESERVES

NEVER in history have modern societies relied so heavily on secure supplies of electricity. Half a century ago, when the nation was last subjected to major power cuts, the effect was mainly on heating and lighting.

Now, however, the computer revolution has changed that completely.

People shop online, we work online, and much study is also done online. International trade and financial transactions depend entirely on a functioning computer network.

The same is true of everything from the police to the transport system. And a power shutdown or outage of only a few hours, even if scheduled, could do lasting damage.

In the same period, we have grown accustomed to a more or less regular and reliable power supply.

Thanks partly to investments made decades ago, the country still has a significant amount of reliable nuclear-generated electricity, plus a small, dwindling reserve of coal generation.

But both these sources are shrinking, because we have phased out coal for a greener environment and because we have failed to plan effectively to replace ageing nuclear plants. A great deal of our remaining energy now depends on gas, much of it imported.

The revolutionary switch to renewable energy, made in response to global warming and the climate change crisis, has been for some years the main focus of planning and building.

This is excellent when it works, but it is completely dependent on the caprice of weather, or on the simple realities of climate.

Solar power, predictably, is of little use here in winter. Wind power can vanish without warning or can be made unusable because the wind is actually too strong for safe generation. Proud announcements that the country has generated 50 per cent of its power through wind on any given day should be greeted with caution. On a windless day, that figure could be tiny.

Some of these problems are alleviated, but not solved, by connectors from our neighbours.

These can rescue us at awkward moments, but France, for instance, has run into major maintenance problems with its elderly nuclear generators, and winter weather simply increases pressure on scarce resources, everywhere. Up to a point, sudden shortages may be dealt with by paying large consumers to switch off, or by bringing in banks of costly and far-from-green diesel generators.

But the risk of actual power cuts, especially in weather such as we have recently been experiencing, is worryingly high.

We really are not very far away from imposed power cuts in our homes and offices, which – as well as leaving the old and vulnerable in the cold and the dark – will do serious damage to the economy.

So, it is perplexing to find that the Government has been relying on predictions by the Met Office in making its plans and calculations. Not only is the Met Office honest about the difficulty of long-distance forecasting, but winters in the UK can be very severe indeed.

Who knows what we would do if Britain once again faced a relentless long-term freeze such as that of 1962-63, itself the coldest since that of 1895?

Events such as the “Troll of Trondheim” often come with little warning. So do interruptions in supply, hugely important now we are no longer self-sufficient in gas.

The one thing that the Government can do is to be prepared for all eventualities. It has been many months since the poor state of our reserve capacity was revealed.  Let us hope that Ministers and officials have not wasted a single second in getting ready.