THREE

But is there a feasible path to normalisation?

There is a Franco-German plan under way that proposes to facilitate Serbia’s quick accession to the EU in exchange for recognition of Kosovo’s independence. The government of Kosovo is reportedly in favour of the plan, but Serbia has already declared that such an exchange is “unacceptable”.

The EU’s primary plan in resolving Kosovo-Serbia tensions seems unlikely to deliver swift results and, as a result, Pristina is looking towards Washington for any possible remedies to its Serbia problem. But the US, focussed on Russia’s war in Ukraine and its repercussions, also appears unable to draw an easy path for normalisation. There is also the risk that Russia may flame tensions between its regional ally Serbia and Western-orientated Kosovo, either to move attention away from its failures in Ukraine, or to distract NATO countries with yet another European conflict.

Of course, all diplomatic efforts to achieve normalisation should continue, but there is little hope that Serbia will accept Kosovo’s independence and start respecting its sovereignty anytime soon. Given the expectation of continuing strife between the two neighbouring states, three policy steps should be taken to enhance Kosovo’s security.

First, NATO’s presence in Kosovo should be beefed up. With some 3,800 soldiers, KFOR is already a formidable force and a pillar of Kosovo’s stability. By increasing troop numbers even further, NATO can send a strong message to Serbia, Russia and the world regarding its commitment to the region and to Kosovo’s viability as an independent state.

Second, the US should boost its support – in terms of both equipment and training – for Kosovo’s police force. While KFOR is useful now, in the long term, only a strong national police force can ensure the stability of the country and the security of its citizens.

And thirdly, Kosovo should be put on a fast track to NATO admission. Kosovo is a reliable pro-Western partner in Southeast Europe and NATO has already invested significantly in the country’s security. Only NATO membership can ensure that it does not end up in a power vacuum and enter into active conflict with Serbia.

More than two decades after NATO’s intervention and almost 15 years after Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Belgrade is still refusing to recognise the facts on the ground and accept Kosovo’s sovereignty. If Pristina’s Western allies are serious about keeping peace in the region, they should renew their commitment to Kosovo before it is too late.