DEFENCE

IN a stark assessment, the authors of Britain’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) have said that Britain’s Armed Forces aren’t ready to fight a war against a military with similar capabilities.

The report states that our forces are better suited “to a peacetime era” and are “not currently optimised for warfare against a ‘peer’ military state”.

The externally-led SDR, written by former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson, retired general Sir Richard Barrons and Russia expert Fiona Hill, was described as the most profound change to defence in 150 years.

While it leaned heavily into new technologies, it has also recommended an increase in the size of the regular Army from 73,000 to 76,000 in the next Parliament. This follows decades of the Army shrinking from 156,000 at the end of the Cold War. The review also includes a chilling list of the potential effects of conflict on the UK’s way of life and lays bare Britain’s overseas dependencies and threats.

In the event of war, Britain would be subject to attacks on its military bases at home and abroad, long-range drone and cruise missile sorties, cyber attacks crippling national infrastructure, and disruptions to economic interests and international trade routes.

The SDR highlights that the defence medical services couldn’t cope with a mass casualty event and that the military is suffering from a recruitment crisis which means only a small number of troops could be deployed.

The document added: “The UK is entering a new era of threat and challenge. The West’s long-held military advantage is being eroded as other countries modernise and expand their armed forces at speed.” The report also reveals that 95 per cent of the UK’s data is carried by undersea cables that are vulnerable to attack and sabotage and that the UK relies on imports for 46 per cent of its food.

It stated: “Undersea pipelines and data cables are critical for sustaining daily national life. The maritime domain is increasingly vulnerable. The Royal Navy must be prepared to deter maritime incidents similar to the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the cutting of undersea data cables in UK and international waters.”

In the year to September 2024, the UK suffered 89 nationally significant cyber-attacks. The Navy and RAF conducted 374 escorts of Russian Federation vessels between 2020 and 2024. In that same period there were 32 launches of RAF Typhoon aircraft for immediate interception.

The report added: “Defence must prepare for a much more difficult world of heightened competition, more frequent crises and conflict that sees conventional military attacks combined with intensified sub-threshold aggression.

“The UK is already subject to daily sub-threshold attack, targeting its critical national infrastructure, testing its vulnerabilities as an open economy and global trading nation and challenges its social cohesion.

“Changes in the strategic context mean that UK defence must plan on the basis that NATO allies may be drawn into war with – or be subject to coercion by – another nuclear-armed state.”

The SDR will bring about a transformation of the Armed Forces, including the development of a so-called Integrated Force, a coming together of the separate services.

While defence chiefs are determined to meet the Prime Minister’s challenge to become “war ready”, the SDR reveals they are also expected to make savings.

The Army is expected to deliver “a ten-fold increase in lethality” – but without a significant number of regular soldiers, although the report concedes there is a “strong case for a small increase in regular numbers when funding allows”.

The SDR suggests fewer paratroopers will be trained to jump. The report calls on the RAF to become more efficient and use civilian planes when a task “does not require military capability”. The Royal Navy is expected to move towards a “cheaper” fleet. Admirals are expected to use “commercial vessels” for transportation in non-contested environments and to share logistical challenges with allies.

The UK’s £7billion combined-cost aircraft carriers are expected to become more versatile, with adaptations to ensure long-range missiles can be fired from their decks and more unmanned aircraft. Defence Secretary John Healey said: “We must move to war-fighting readiness, to avoid the huge costs that wars create. We prevent wars by being strong enough to win them.

“We will establish a new hybrid-Navy, our carriers will carry the first hybrid airwing in Europe. We will create a British Army which is ten times more lethal, with an aim of 76,000 regular soldiers in the next parliament.

“We will increase the number of cadets by 30 per cent and develop a new strategic reserve by 2030.”

The SDR has made 62 recommendations which government ministers have pledged to implement in full.

Analysis

New face of our modern military

More submarines, soldiers and drones, along with an airborne nuclear strike capability and the exploration of technologies such as lasers, AI and robotics, are among the proposals in the Strategic Defence Review.

These are the key ambitions outlined in the assessment:

Army to be “ten times more lethal”

This ambition relies on the harnessing of new technologies and weapon systems, particularly drones. Lethality is difficult to measure and the claim is strong on political rhetoric. Only a couple of months ago, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, said the ambition was to double lethality by 2027 and triple it by 2030. The new Archer artillery system, the belated introduction of the Ajax vehicle and Challenger 3 tanks will increase lethality. But to what extent?

Three forces to be integrated into one

The Integrated Force, unveiled as part of the SDR, is not a merger of the Armed Forces, but they will lose much of the traditional independence as they are moulded into a centralised Integrated Force. The SDR suggested the services were “siloed”. The need for them to train together and prepare for war shoulder to shoulder was essential in the months and years ahead.

£15billion boost for nuclear warheads

Britain’s nuclear deterrent has long been in need of recapitalisation. The £15billion will pay for these weapons to be upgraded or replaced. It will also see the significant modernisation of infrastructure at the Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston, supporting more than 9,000 jobs at the Berkshire site.

Up to 12 new nuclear attack submarines

The as yet uncosted pledge to develop “up to” 12 new attack submarines has been welcomed by military observers but the first boat is not expected to enter service before the late 2030s. The submarines will support the AUKUS security alliance between the UK, Australia, and the United States, and will be used to protect the Pacific from Chinese aggression. Over the decades ahead, the boats will replace the Royal Navy’s current fleet of seven Astute-class submarines. They will be built at key sites such as BAE in Barrow-in-Furness.

Six new factories to make munitions

The SDR proposes at least six factories making munitions and energetics such as explosives and propellants for weapons.

The SDR recommends creating an “always on” munitions production capacity in the UK, allowing production to be scaled up at speed if needed. Britain’s military warehouses are bare after £5billion in weaponry and munitions was provided for Ukraine since the start of the conflict in 2022. The programme will create more than 1,000 skilled jobs, according to the assessment.

Robotics, cyber warfare, and AI

The review says AI will improve the quality and speed of decision-making and operational effectiveness for Britain’s military, its allies… and its enemies.

It should be an immediate priority to “shift towards greater use of autonomy and AI within the UK’s conventional forces”. This has shown to be transformational in Ukraine. Defence chiefs will launch a Defence AI Investment Fund by February 2026.

The report warns cyber threats will become harder to mitigate as technology evolves, with government departments, military hardware, communications, increasingly vulnerable. Hardening critical defence functions to cyber-attack is crucial. Directed Energy Weapon systems, such as the UK’s DragonFire, a world-leading laser ground to air system being developed at Porton Down, can save millions of pounds in expenditure on ordnance systems. The review also calls for the Ministry of Defence to seize the opportunities presented by technologies such as robots and lasers.

£4billion expansion of the drone force

The Government unveiled a £4billion investment package for drones and autonomous systems. Drones are dominating the conflict in Ukraine and in Russia, following the audacious Ukrainian attack on Russian airfields in Siberia just days ago.

They provide lethality at minimal financial cost and would spare the lives of British troops because they are not required to engage with the enemy at close proximity. Cheap to produce drones can be effective against “legacy” military systems worth billions of pounds and are necessary to protect and augment the UK’s manned military systems, such as aircraft, helicopters, and armoured vehicles.

Fighter jets to carry nuclear bombs

Britain is exploring the potential return of air-delivered nuclear weapons in collaboration with the United States. The US’s F-35A Lightning II is capable of carrying tactical gravity nuclear bombs.

The proposal marks the most significant shift in UK nuclear posture since the Cold War. Currently, this country’s nuclear deterrent is carried by the Royal Navy’s “bomber” submarines. The air-launched nuclear weapons would carry a much smaller payload. The lower yield B61 munitions are already integrated into US aircraft stationed on continental Europe and could be brought to Britain.

Thousands of new long-range weapons

At least 7,000 long-range weapons will be made to restock UK military warehouses and to prepare for an extended conflict against an adversary such as Russia.

Children taught value of the military

Defence chiefs will work with the Department for Education to develop understanding of the Armed Forces among young people in schools, by means of a two-year series of public outreach events across the UK, explaining current threats and future trends.

Schools and community-based cadet forces will also be expanded, with an ambition of a 30 per cent rise by 2030 with a view to the UK having 250,000 cadets, many of whom will go on to enlist in the forces.

More reservists and investment in them

To meet the challenge of engaging in a lengthy conflict, the report identified the need to boost the number of reservists.

These part-time personnel, many of whom are former regulars with operational experience, would join full-time troops on the frontline. The report identified the need to increase the size of the UK’s Active Reserve forces by at least 20 per cent “when funding allows, most likely in the 2030s”. The UK has around 25,000 Army reservists, 3,500 Royal Navy and Royal Marine reservists, and 3,200 RAF reservists. There have also been proposals to create a home guard to protect airports and power plants.