URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
According to a new study, cities will be hit the hardest by climate change because of the ‘urban heat island’. This is the effect that traps warmth, with the consequence of cities being several degrees warmer than rural areas due to the heat trapped by dark-coloured roads and buildings. The research, first published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that world cities will potentially face costs twice as big compared to their surroundings.
The study states that the phenomenon is so pronounced that it ‘enables olives to be grown next to a south-facing stone wall as far north as Aberdeen.’
Through an analysis of temperature data dating back to 1950 for 1,692 cities, the researchers predicted through extrapolation techniques that one in four of the world’s biggest cities might be up to 7C warmer by the end of this century.
Such a steep increase would likely have dire consequences for the health of city-dwellers, deny companies and industries of able workers, and put great pressure on already strained natural resources such as water.
Alarmingly, the study also predicts that the worst-affected cities could lose as much as 10.9 per cent of their GDP, the annual amount of national output.
Cities cover only one per cent of the earth’s surface, but are home to 54 per cent of the world’s population.
The authors say, however, that the unique environmental factors attributed to urban landscapes are often overlooked in climate change studies.
The researchers document that studies on climate change and its impacts are mostly focused on a limited set of countries and risks. They specifically cite sea-level rises and natural water resources, but do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect.
Professor Richard Tol of Sussex University says the team’s findings highlight the pressing need for locally-tailored responses to climate change.
Professor Tol has signalled that any hard-won victories over climate change on a global scale could be wiped out by the effects of uncontrolled urban heat islands. He has also highlighted that ‘city-level adaptation strategies’ to limit local warming have important economic net benefits for almost all cities around the world.
The research paper suggests modifications to urban construction to minimise heat absorption, including using ‘cooler’ alternatives to asphalt for pavements, painting roofs with a reflective coating and the planting of more trees.
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