Category Archives: Environment

Britain, Economic, Energy, Environment, Government, Politics, Scotland

The development of hydro-electric power in the Scottish Highlands was a revolution…

A SECOND REVOLUTION?

Intro: An investment appraisal and feasibility study is currently underway between the Scottish Government and Scottish Power for a new development of hydro-electric storage at Cruachan, beside Loch Awe

The development of hydro-electric power in the Scottish Highlands was seen as a revolution. It provided for a big leap in living standards, not just because residents in northern Scotland could have a reliable and dependable supply of electricity to light and heat their homes, but also because it became an engine of growth for industry and commerce.

The First Minister in Scotland, Alex Salmond, has announced a second expansion of hydro power. In conjunction with a feasibility study being carried out by Scottish Power, a major utility company, the aims are to more than double the current generation of electricity. Some suggest this could amount to a second revolution.

The technical feasibility is investigating the costs involved in doubling the generating capacity of Scottish Power’s Cruachan pumped storage plant located beside Loch Awe.

In principle, an expansion of pumped storage would be hugely beneficial, because it is regarded as the only reliable means of storing wind energy – which gets generated at times when there is no demand for it. Increasing the storage capacity would help to make wind a far more reliable source of energy supply, and also by reducing carbon emissions.

However, we should not dismiss the fact that this is a feasibility study that will take up to two years to complete. The associated costs and employment creation potential of the project are, at this early stage, a rough guesstimate. It may turn out that the Cruachan expansion plans, like Scottish Power’s schemes for carbon capture and storage at Longannet, and its proposals for the Argyll Array offshore wind farm, are too technically difficult or too costly for it to go ahead.

For it to work (effectively) as a 1,000 megawatt storage battery for wind power, there is the additional problem that the reservoir halfway up Ben Cruachan will have to be increased in size quite dramatically. The obstacles in overcoming resistance from environmental campaigners should not be overlooked, either.

The Scottish Government appears to regard the project as one that is more likely than not to come to fruition. But, notwithstanding whether the project ever goes ahead or not, this will become an investment decision that will serve a valuable political purpose. That decision is to be made after the referendum for Scottish independence in September.

In this context, energy is a problematic issue for Mr Salmond. Expansion of Scottish renewables – which, undoubtedly, the Scottish Government will see as a major source for employment as well as cutting the country’s carbon footprint – is largely dependent on a subsidy which is mostly financed by energy consumers in England and Wales.

Implicit in the First Minister’s arguments is that, such will be England’s needs, the people and businesses south of the Border will be willing to continue paying their ‘foreign’ neighbour the subsidy in maintaining continuity of supply. That’s a difficult assumption to make and certainly holds no guarantee.

History may be tempted to record that if the hydro revolution being envisaged fails to materialise, Mr Salmond has cleverly waved a diversionary red flag for political purposes. We can only hope, though, that the project investment at Cruachan gets the green light.

Under an independent Scotland, energy policy would be under the direct control of the Scottish Government.

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Britain, Energy, Environment, Government, Politics, Society

Concern over energy firms refusing to pass on price cuts…

ENERGY BILLS

Intro: Millions of energy consumers on fixed deals will lose out

Millions of energy consumers with fixed price energy tariffs will not get a £50 reduction in utility bills as promised by David Cameron and George Osborne. A pledge was given this week in the Autumn Statement that electricity bills would be cut following the decision by the government to roll back some green levies.

The energy giant E.ON has announced that more than one million of its customers will get a reduction of only £12 – or 23p a week.

EDF is taking the same line with its one million fixed rate customers, who include many pensioners and families. Npower, SSE and Scottish Power may follow suit.

The Prime Minister, Chancellor George Osborne and Energy Secretary Ed Davey have made repeated pledges in their efforts to protect customers by rolling back environmental charges.

Mr Osborne said this week: ‘There’s going to be an average of £50 off people’s bills … We are absolutely insistent that this is going to be brought in.’

The smaller reduction of £12 covers the Government’s decision to switch funding of the Warm Homes Discount – a subsidy for poorer families – from energy bills to general taxation. The rest of the decrease was expected to come from changes to the Energy Companies’ Obligation Scheme, a levy applied to all bills to raise money for energy-saving measures for poorer households.

However, the element of the reduction is not being passed on to customers on fixed tariff deals by some companies.

In contrast, British Gas, the largest of the ‘big six’ suppliers, announced that all tariffs and payment methods will get a reduction of £53 from January 1.

A spokesperson for Consumer Futures, a campaign group, said: ‘The message has been that people were going to save £50 on their energy bill, but it seems a fair chunk of people will not get that. This sort of behaviour is not going to do anything to reassure customers … People feel confused and angry about their energy bills. This latest development just adds insult to injury.’

The spokesperson added: ‘I think in the current climate, bearing in mind how people are struggling, the right thing to do would be to apply the full reduction across the board. That is the expectation that the Government has created.’

Following the Autumn Statement, E.ON immediately announced a price rise of almost £60 a year for customers on standard tariffs. The changes will take effect from January 18.

The provider says that cutting the bills of fixed price customers by only £12 was justified because many of these people were already on relatively good price deals and tariffs.

EDF took a similar line and said its short-term fixed deal is some £90 a year cheaper than its new standard prices.

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Environment, Global warming, Government, Research, Society

The catastrophe in the Philippines is not due to global warming…

EVIDENCE BASED ARGUMENT

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines with devastating and deadly effect a few days ago, is overshadowing the UN climate summit in Warsaw. A group of delegates along with some climate campaigners have been quick to suggest that global warming was to blame for the disaster and catastrophe that is unfolding. Nothing, though, could be further from the truth.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which many forecasters predicted would be more active in 2013 than normal, has turned out to be inaccurate. Take a closer inspection of the cyclones and tropical storms this year and an observer would easily conclude that something quite remarkable has happened. For the first time in 45 years, no major hurricane made landfall. This year, too, has been marked by the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, and the first since 1994 when no major hurricane formed. Indeed, U.S. weather experts have confirmed that 2013 has been one of the weakest hurricane seasons since modern record-keeping began some 50 years ago. Paradoxically, then, if the alleged cause, global warming, has inhibited hurricanes on one side of the world how has it managed to trigger typhoons on the other side?

Empirical evidence is important here. Whilst climate activists claim that tropical cyclone activity (including the frequency and intensity of typhoons) has increased as the global temperature has gone up, scientific observations published in many journals show that despite the moderate warming during the 20th century, the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in the Philippines did not increase and has remained unchanged for more than 100 years.

Just hours before the typhoon hit the Philippines, authorities moved almost 1 million people to evacuation centres. Sadly, many of these structures collapsed when the tropical storm hit coastal towns and villages. As many as 10,000 people, including 4,000 children, have been killed. The death toll could yet be much higher. Much of the initial destruction that killed so many was caused by winds blowing at 235 kilometres per hour. In retrospect, however, it didn’t really have to be that way.

A superstorm of similar magnitude, Cyclone Yasi, hit Queensland, Australia, in February 2011. The cyclone hit Queensland with an eye of 100km in diameter and wind speeds of up to 285km/h. Crucially, however, local disaster management plans had been implemented long in advance. Evacuation, including that of hospitals, was completed more than four hours before the cyclone struck. Because Australia is an advanced and prosperous nation that can afford to implement highly effective disaster warning systems, not a single person died as a result of this destructive cyclone.

Many people around the world who are exposed and susceptible to natural hazards are increasingly relying on the effectiveness of warning systems. Disaster warning systems are most effective for natural catastrophes that develop gradually and relatively slowly, such as floods or tropical cyclones. Just two months ago, a fierce and ruthless cyclone ripped along India’s east coast. It only killed 25 people as millions of people were evacuated in advance of the tropical cyclone, minimising greatly the number of fatalities. 14 years earlier, more than 10,000 people were killed in a similar cyclone that arrived without much warning.

Even some poor countries known for their vulnerability to cyclones have learnt how to prepare for the recurrent threat and have succeeded in significantly reducing cyclone-related deaths. Bangladesh is one such example. The two deadliest cyclones in Bangladesh’s history occurred in 1970 and 1991, killing 500,000 and 140,000 people respectively. In the last two decades, Bangladesh has introduced better warning systems that have helped to substantially reduce deaths and injuries from cyclones. In 2007, for instance, Bangladesh suffered a severe cyclone that claimed the lives of 4,234 people, a 100-fold reduction compared with the devastating cyclone that hit the country in 1970.

Research carried out by the eminent US scientist, Indur Goklany, with his findings published and documented in numerous papers, states that the average annual deaths and death rates from all extreme weather events has declined by more than 90 per cent since 1920. This decline occurred despite a vast increase in the population at risk and more complete coverage of extreme weather events. Goklany also shows that, globally, the number of deaths and death rates due to storms – including hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes and typhoons – have declined by 47 per cent and 70 per cent respectively since the 1970s.

Economic development and technological advancement has allowed many countries to become increasingly better at coping with and adapting to the effects of extreme weather events. Goklany highlights that many advocate the spending of trillions of dollars to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gases, in part to forestall hypothetical future increases in mortality from global warming. But, as he says, spending even a fraction of such sums on the numerous higher priority health and safety problems plaguing humanity would provide greater returns for human well-being.

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