Category Archives: Finance

Britain, Finance, Government, Middle East, United Nations, United States

Armed intervention in Syria is an agonising decision…

WESTERN INTERVENTION IN SYRIA

Western military intervention in Syria is moving closer. America’s reluctance to admit that its ‘red line’ had been crossed, said yesterday that there was ‘very little doubt’ that Bashar al-Assad’s forces had killed up to 1,500 civilians in a chemical attack last week. This followed statements from Britain that the only ‘plausible explanation’ for the deaths was an attack by Syrian government forces, and from France who said that a ‘reaction with force may be necessary’ if this is proved to be the case.

Though Damascus has belatedly signalled that UN inspectors can access the site of the attack, its prevarication over the last 6-days to allow inspectors in, means the evidence will have deteriorated or possibly even disappeared altogether.

The outcome of military intervention – most likely air strikes or cruise missile attacks from the U.S. naval fleet operating in the region – is impossible to predict. The threat to stability posed by the Syrian regime must now take account of the use of chemical weapons which violates international law, which implicitly undermines the authority of the UN. Whilst President Obama correctly identified it as a line which could not be crossed with impunity, failure to hold the Assad regime to account will only encourage more of the same. Mr Assad is known to have stockpiles not only of sarin gas, but also of the much more potent and deadly vx nerve gas, both types of chemical nerve agents having been moved around at will in the past few months. The strain is intensifying with refugees amassing on the borders with Jordon and Lebanon. Over the weekend, the UN declared that more than one million children have now been displaced in Syria.

The strategic risks of doing nothing are horribly clear. Armed intervention in a disintegrating Syria is an agonising choice, because the domino effect is an important factor in the equation – Iran, for example, will take heart in its pursuit of a nuclear warhead, which would possibly prompt others to follow suit in a Middle East nuclear arms race, including Israel moving closer towards unilateral military action against Tehran’s uranium enrichment programme.

One may hope that the acceptance by Syria’s backers, Russia and Iran, that chemical weapons have been used will lead to a unanimous Security Council resolution at the UN which will force Assad and his opponents to the negotiating table. That hope may well remain a pious one.

Last week’s hideous images of gassed children mean something must now be done. There can be no further delays, and contingencies should be activated in dealing with the flood of refugees pouring over the Lebanese and Jordon borders: quotas, for instance, should be drawn up in granting many of them asylum – as happened in Indochina after the fall of Saigon in 1975. A humanitarian and emergency response is now desperately needed.

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Banking, Britain, Business, Economic, Finance, Financial Markets, Government, Society

Bank of England Governor turns fire on bankers…

BANK REFORM

… The bank governor is determined to prevent a Japan-style economic crisis in the UK.

The new Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has launched a stinging attack on ‘socially useless’ bankers and has called for a ‘change of culture’ in the industry.

The former Golden-Sachs executive, who succeeded Lord King as governor of the Bank of England last month, hit out at self-obsessed bankers who are, he says, detached from reality.

The Canadian has also defended the decision to peg interest rates to unemployment – a move that looks set to see rates remaining at 0.5 per cent for at least another three years.

Mr Carney expressed ‘tremendous sympathy’ for savers who have ‘done the right thing’ but insisted drastic action was needed to ‘secure the recovery’ and prevent a Japanese-style economic crisis in Britain.

This followed his announcement last week that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will not raise rates from o.5 per cent until unemployment falls to 7 per cent or lower. Unemployment is currently running at 7.8 per cent and is not expected to reach the new threshold until the end of 2016.

Turning his fire on the banking industry, Mr Carney said:

… There has to be a change in the culture of these institutions.

He said that ‘finance can absolutely play a socially useful and economically useful function’, but added it must focus on ‘the real economy’. The Bank governor said banking is ‘socially useless’ when it becomes ‘disconnected’ from the economy and society and ‘only talks to itself’.

Mr Carney, who is also chairman of global banking watchdog the Financial Stability Board, added:

… A lot of what we are doing internationally is to strip out this type of behaviour.

The Canadian said the decision to peg interest rates to unemployment – a tactic known as ‘forward guidance’ by central banks – would boost the economy by ‘more than half a percentage point of GDP’ over the next three years.

Amid a fierce backlash from savers he insisted low rates were required to ensure the economy finally recovers from the biggest boom and bust in history.

‘The best way to get interest rates back to normal levels is to have a strong economy,’ he said. ‘We’re in the very early stages of a recovery from the weakest period on record.’

He said Japan made two mistakes after its recession in the early 1990s – failing to fix the banking system and pulling back from measures to stimulate the economy too quickly.

… As a consequence, almost a quarter of a century later, interest rates are still at rock bottom levels in Japan… We don’t want to make those mistakes here in the UK.

COMMENT

Mark Carney’s predecessor, Lord King, started a hard line on the need for banks to reform their cultural practices, by being useful contributors to society and by insisting that they strengthen their balance sheets so they no longer expose the taxpayer to excessive risk.

In some recesses of the banking sector, the appetite for running their operations on wafer-thin levels of capital remained undiminished by the worst financial crisis the world has ever seen.

Some in the City of London had hoped that Mr Carney would administer a snub to King by letting off bankers more lightly.

Given the governor’s role as chairman of the Financial Stability Board, and his personal championing of higher leverage ratios whilst at the Bank of Canada, that always seemed improbable – and so, thankfully, it has proved.

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has defended the decision to peg interest rates to unemployment – a move that looks set to see rates remaining at 0.5 per cent for at least another three years.

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has defended the decision to peg interest rates to unemployment – a move that looks set to see rates remaining at 0.5 per cent for at least another three years.

In his first public pronouncement on the subject Mr Carney made it crystal clear that he, no less than King, wants the banks to start serving the real economy instead of just themselves. He made a point of praising King’s work in improving bank balance sheets and of name-checking Andrew Bailey, who heads the Prudential Regulation Authority, the body that controversially forced Barclays and Nationwide to raise more capital.

The governor’s backing for the moves to make these two financial institutions formulate credible plans to increase their base capitals can longer be in question.

The great myth put about by the banking lobby is that higher levels of capital automatically constrain their ability to lend to households and firms and so hold back growth at a time when the economy is weak.

Whilst this seems to be a notion that has been swallowed wholesale by some in the Treasury and the Department of Business, it is not true.

Banks can improve their capital position by retaining earnings, scaling down bonuses and cutting back on other types of less socially useful business.

The new rules will, over the long-term, increase lending to the real economy, not harm it, and will give us safer and more secure banks, which can only be good for stability and growth.

Undoubtedly, there are plenty of questions over Mr Carney’s big idea of forward guidance, from the impact it will have on savers and on pensions, the risks to inflation and the distinct absence of a clear message due to the get-out clauses.

But on bank reform and conditions for capital holdings, Mr Carney should be applauded.

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Banking, Britain, Economic, Finance, Government

Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards…

The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards has said that bosses of failed banks should face jail or lose the right to claim bonuses for up to ten years for ‘reckless misconduct’.

The new criminal offence would make sure that top executives paid for their ‘shocking and widespread malpractice’, according to a report by the commission which makes a number of recommendations on banking standards to the government.

Not a single British banker has been sent to prison since the financial crash began in 2007, but the proposed legislation seeks tougher disciplinary measures against errant bankers.

As well as prison terms, bankers could face heavy fines and bans from the financial services industry, as well as curbs on bonuses and the threat of pensions being cancelled.

Commission chairman Andrew Tyrie MP said:

… Under our recommendations, senior bankers who seriously damage their banks or put taxpayers’ money at risk can expect to be fined, banned from the industry, or, in the worst cases, go to jail. That has not been the case up to now.

In its 527-page report, the commission found that ‘deep lapses in standards have been commonplace’. Mr Tyrie highlights that it is not just bankers that need to change. The actions of regulators and governments have contributed to the decline in standards, too, he says.

The commission of MPs and peers calls for a sweeping overhaul of top pay, with city regulators given new powers to cancel pension rights and payoffs for the bosses of bailed-out banks.

It also wants watchdogs to be able to force banks to defer bonus payments for up to a decade, in order to prevent bosses reaping large rewards for risky, short-term strategies that subsequently lead to losses.

According to Mr Tyrie the rewards for fleeting, often illusory success have been huge, while the penalties for failure have been much smaller, or non-existent.

However, the director general of the CBI, John Cridland, said:

… There are tough criminal sanctions in the UK for those who engage in fraudulent behaviour. Enforcing those must come before the introduction of new sanctions.

The findings of the parliamentary commission, set up last summer in the wake of the LIBOR scandal, are not binding, but the Government is being urged to implement its recommendations ‘in full’. The proposals have been handed to ministers.

The reforms will aim to prevent a repeat of the bailouts and scandals such as the LIBOR rate-rigging, where some bankers have walked away with large payoffs and pensions.

But bankers will not be targeted retrospectively. The disgraced banker, Fred Goodwin, who left the Royal Bank of Scotland in ruins but is still receiving a pension of £342,000 a year for life, will be unaffected.

Nor will any legislation ensnare former HBOS chief James Crosby, who will collect £406,000 of his £580,000-a-year retirement deal.

Under current rules, senior bankers have been able to evade punishment by claiming they were not responsible for collapses and that they had not committed deliberate fraud, with the onus on financial authorities to prove wrongdoing.

In the proposed regime, though, senior managers could be held individually accountable and would have to show they took ‘all reasonable steps’ to avoid a failure.

Mr Tyrie said that a lack of personal responsibility has been commonplace throughout the industry, and added:

… Senior figures have continued to shelter behind an accountability firewall.

The commission also wants a new licensing system to stop traders involved in setting LIBOR rates and prevent area managers who oversee the sale of financial products from slipping through the net.

The report also recommends that City watchdogs should be able to force badly-behaved banks to sign a formal agreement to improve their culture and standards.

The commission – whose members include the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and former Chancellor Lord Lawson – also demands the dismantling of UK Financial Investments (UKFI), the body that is supposed to manage taxpayers’ holdings in RBS and Lloyds at arms’ length from ministers.

It said the Government, which denies forcing the recent resignation of RBS boss Stephen Hester, has interfered in the running of the two banks and that UKFI is seen as a ‘fig leaf’ for ‘the reality of direct government control’.

Ministers must also make an immediate commitment to analyse whether RBS should be split up into a ‘good bank’, that could lend more to small firms and personal customers, and a ‘bad bank’ to dump its toxic assets, the commission said.

A study of high street lenders by competition watchdogs and an independent panel of experts to look at measures to help bank customers were also part of the recommendations.

Lord Oakeshott, a former LibDem Treasury spokesman, said:

… We must stop the subterfuge of UKFI and put the Treasury on the spot to make the banks we own, lend. RBS, our biggest business bank, has failed the nation that rescued it at £1,500 for every taxpayer. It must be broken up with new management and tough net lending targets for the good bank so small business can grow again.

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