Category Archives: Financial Markets

Banking, Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government

Lending to small and medium sized firms on course to hit a 7-year low…

BANK LENDING

Bank lending to businesses is projected to slump to its lowest level for seven years, a report from Ernst & Young has warned.

UK banks will lend £422 billion to firms this year – the lowest amount since 2006. This is well below the £575 billion lent in 2008 before the financial crisis.

The figures from the Ernst & Young Item Club underline the crisis facing many companies as banks starve them of the funds they need to grow and prosper. The problem poses a serious threat to the economic recovery.

The Item Club report warns that lending will not return to its pre-recession peak until 2017.

Financial analysts fear small and medium sized firms are struggling to get the funds they need to grow, or by taking on staff that will be needed to drive the economy.

The further fall in lending this year will disappoint officials at both the Treasury and the Bank of England, who launched the £80 billion Funding for Lending scheme last summer.

This scheme was intended to increase the flow of cheap loans for households and businesses.

While there is evidence that mortgage lending is increasing, particularly to first-time buyers, there is little to suggest that small firms are getting access to the money they urgently need.

The Item Club report also showed that around £200 million was lent last year to small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs, through ‘peer to peer’ lending – which allows people to lend directly to businesses.

An economic adviser to the Item Club, said:

… We expect peer to peer lending to grow rapidly in the next few years as demand for funding from SMEs outstrips supply from the banks.

The report does predict, though, that bank lending will pick up as the economy recovers, rising to £452 billion next year, £497 billion in 2015, £545 billion in 2016 and £602 billion in 2017.

A spokesperson for the accountancy firm Ernst & Young, said:

… Corporate lending won’t increase enough in 2013 to compensate for the dire first half of the year. We expect it to pick up in 2014, raising hopes that UK companies may invest some of the cash back into the wider economy.

… The banks should be able to increase their credit supply – regulation permitting.

And, despite the recent pick-up in the economy interest rates look set to remain flat lined. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, which will meet on Thursday, is widely expected to peg interest rates at 0.5 per cent for a 54th month in a row.

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Banking, Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government, United States

Libor handed over to the Americans…

BLOW FOR THE CITY OF LONDON

The owner of the New York stock exchange has been handed responsibility for setting controversial LIBOR interest rates in a move slammed by MPs as a ‘tremendous blow’ to the City of London.

Earlier this week the Treasury confirmed that the key role will pass from lobby group the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) to transatlantic NYSE Euronext from early next year.

The process, which will still take place in London, will be overseen by City watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

But while FCA head Martin Wheatley hailed this as ‘an important step in enhancing the integrity of LIBOR’, John Mann, a member of the Treasury Select Committee, blasted the decision.

The Labour MP said it was further evidence that British banks are being unfairly singled out for rigging LIBOR interest rates – while, he says, their US counterparts escape punishment.

He said:

… This is a tremendous blow to the prestige of the City of London and sends out the message that you can’t trust the British.

… What the Americans have been doing is selectively picking out British banks that have done wrong and selectively ignoring the same scandals that have been committed by their own banks… The Chancellor has failed to stick up for the City. French and Germans will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of stealing other financial markets.

LIBOR – The London Interbank Offered Rate – is a key benchmark rate which is used to set mortgages for millions of homeowners and is linked to $300 trillion of financial contracts around the world.

The BBA was criticised for being asleep on the job as a number of banks, including Barclays, the Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, routinely rigged rates under its nose.

This culminated in huge fines for these banks and the decision by an independent review headed by Mr Wheatley to strip the BBA of its role.

The decision to award the contract to the New York Stock Exchange-owner followed a bidding war orchestrated by an independent committee, headed by former journalist Baroness Hogg – now a senior independent director at the Treasury. NYSE Euronext, which owns the pan-European Euronext market and will pay £1 for BBA Libor Ltd’s assets, said it is ‘uniquely placed’ to restore the international credibility of LIBOR. BBA has refused to reveal how many of its employees work on LIBOR.

Failed bidders are understood to include financial information provider Thomson Reuters, which has calculated LIBOR on behalf of the BBA since 2005.

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COMMENT

The British Bankers’ Association, a wildly discredited organisation given its mishandling of LIBOR, the interest rate that sets the price for trillions of dollars of transactions across the world, has much to answer for. Its sclerotic behaviour under the BBA’s previous leadership failed to respond with any willpower to criticisms made by the Federal Reserve. Had it done so, it is possible that the LIBOR scandal – which wiped out the top management at Barclays – might never have happened.

Not that the Bank of England has totally clean hands in any of this. It may have had no direct responsibility for keeping Britain’s markets honest, but it can be accused of being lackadaisical in making sure the BBA acted on Fed criticisms and forced through reforms designed to erect Chinese walls between LIBOR setters and traders so that opportunities for rigging were stamped out.

Paradoxically, the Libor business that NYSE Euronext will inherit has shrunk dramatically. Post the Great Recession the LIBOR market has been in deep slumber because banks are so distrusting of each other, especially in the eurozone.

It’s possible that among the reasons for awarding the LIBOR contracts to NYSE Euronext rather than the London Stock Exchange is that London’s bid came in association with Thomson Reuters, the financial institution which set the reference rate under the old broken regime.

Thomson Reuters’ independence has been challenged recently by the New York State Attorney Eric Schneiderman who is critical of an arrangement under which premium customers get privileged access – a two second advantage – to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. At a time when the City is under siege from Brussels over a variety of issues, it does seem bizarre that we should allow an interest rate market that grew in London in the 1970s, to escape US tax measures, to head back across the Atlantic.

And while several European banks, including Barclays, RBS and UBS, have paid a heavy price from US regulators for LIBOR manipulation, so far there has not been a single successful prosecution or settlement with an American bank. That in itself should raise many previously unanswered curious questions, as LIBOR setting now moves to the United States.

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Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government, Politics

UK economy: Growth is returning and the signs are promising…

SPENDING REVIEW

The Chancellor, George Osborne, is determined to stick to his guns, with yet another £11.5 billion of budget cuts to be delivered in an election year. Some may say this is a massive gamble for a Conservative Chancellor who will wish to see his party elected at the next general election.

But the Chancellor has to retain the confidence of the financial markets by showing he is willing to tackle the legacy of deficit and vast levels of debt left by Labour.

If the markets no longer have confidence in the economy, Britain’s low interest rates, which are so vital a component to recovery and growth, will come to a shuddering-halt. If that was to happen, many would face financial disaster.

The first fruits of Mr Osborne’s determined approach is seen in the latest publication from the Office of National Statistics which has presented its revisions of gross domestic product (GDP), the key measure of the total output of the economy.

After a dreadful couple of years, the economy appears to be genuinely on the mend. In the first three months of this year it recovered healthily, despite some poor weather which usually slows down performance, but this trend is confirmed by all the major economic indicators and surveys.

The influential National Institute of Economic and Social Research, an often stringent critic of the government, says that output expanded by 0.6 per cent in the last three full calendar months.

This means that the ‘modest recovery’, often referred to by the retiring Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, is well and truly underway.

Earlier estimates of GDP underplayed the actual health of the economy. Early estimates of construction activity, for example, fell short of the true picture. Building programmes ranging from shopping centres in Leeds, to new office towers in the City of London, as well as new homes being built across the land is evidence of that.

The building industry certainly looks to be doing much better than was previously thought. It is this improvement – together with a formidable robust service sector, sharply better production from the North Sea, and higher export levels (especially to America) – that is turning the economy round.

According to fund managers Henderson of the City of London there has been a strong pick-up in the amount of money circulating in the economy. They suggest that, on current trends, the UK could be among the fastest-growing leading Western nations this year, expanding by a remarkable 2 per cent.

In his House of Commons address, Mr Osborne hinted at the underlying strength of the economy. He pointed out that for every one public sector job that has been lost as a result of austerity and cost cutting, another five have been created in the private sector.

Essential to the delivery of continuing growth, however, will be the discovery of new markets for Britain’s goods and services – not least because of the appalling health of the economies of our major trading partners in the European Union.

The Chancellor said that one of the keys to this will be a ‘strengthening of trade and investment links with China’. As a spending priority, the Government is planning to work with Britain’s exporters to set up a series of centres to promote British goods and services in China’s fastest-growing cities. Switching the focus from Europe to the new wealth-creating economies of Asia is going to be critical for our continuing recovery.

In the meantime, however, it is Britain’s close trading and financial relationship with the United States and its recovering economy that is proving most important to export-led growth. Exports of both goods and services to the U.S. have been climbing strongly in recent months.

Amid the intense interest with what is going on in Brussels and the eurozone, it is often forgotten that America is by far our most important single marketplace. The UK exports to the U.S. everything from Rolls-Royce engines to defence equipment as well as music made by British iconic figures in our pop industry.

No one, though, should underestimate the task of what the government is faced with in building up the economy to the peak it reached before the 2008 financial crisis.

The UK’s debt is continuing to climb despite the cuts and will not reach its height until 2016, when it will be the equivalent of an alarming 93.2 per cent of the nation’s output according to the latest IMF forecast.

If items such as public sector pension liabilities, which are hidden from the country’s balance sheet, are included, our debts will actually exceed national output in 2016. The Chancellor’s latest reductions in spending, in fact, represent less than 0.1 per cent of the national debt as projected in the year 2015-16.

The Chancellor’s trimming of the national budget, despite the hysteria of hard-hitting cuts, is no more than a holding operation designed to stabilise market confidence between now and the election.

The arrival nest week of the new Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, poached from the Bank of Canada, has the task of not just keeping inflation close to the Government’s 2 per cent target but also to support growth.

Now that the housing market finally appears to be recovering from the shock of the financial crisis, and more small and medium-sized businesses are taking out bank loans to expand, any increase in interest rates by Mr Carney would be the last thing the Treasury needs. Mr Carney will chair his first meeting of the interest-rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee next week and will set in place the new mandate for the Bank of England as outlined in the budget.

Mervyn King has warned of the dangers this would pose in terms of homeowners struggling to pay mortgages and the loss of confidence in business circles.

The financial markets, it should be remembered, are still extremely jittery. The mere suggestion last week that the United States might curb its huge amounts of quantitative easing (Q.E.) – or printing money – sent share prices crashing across the globe. Mr Carney will want to prevent that happening at all costs, as will the Chancellor.

State spending reductions, while necessary and essential to calm the markets, can only make a small dent in Britain’s deficit and debt. It is higher-than-expected growth that could radically alter the picture.

The greater the output of the economy, the more taxes are paid – and the less money is paid out in welfare benefits because so many more people are employed.

If Mr Osborne can deliver sustained growth by the election, he would then be in a strong position to be even more radical, by taking a long-overdue axe to Britain’s mammoth social security bill – by removing, for example, many generous benefits to wealthy pensioners – and put the economy on a path to true prosperity.

 

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