Category Archives: Government

Britain, Government, Politics, Scotland, Society

A £1bn bung to cling onto power will be very costly

BRITAIN: CONSERVATIVE-DUP DEAL

IT has been frequently said that this month’s general election was an unnecessary political plebiscite. Maybe so for the Conservative Party, with the ballot turning out to be an exercise in damage limitation. But there has been debate over this summation, with some arguing that the ballot was in fact necessary, because Theresa May, up to that point, was an unelected prime minister. She had been put into 10 Downing Street only by her peers and parliamentary Conservative Party. The election was also the most expensive in British political history. The logistics alone is reckoned to be costed at around £140million, but that figure is quickly vanishing into thin air as details emerge of the deal between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. Having flippantly spent £140m from the public purse to achieve nothing short of humiliation, it has now cost Mrs May a further £1billion in securing again the political power she relinquished by calling an election she was so sure she would win.

Enter Scotland and the devolution settlement. There is a black-and-white way of looking at the deal struck with the DUP to give Belfast an enormous bung in exchange for votes: it’s nothing to do with Scotland, so Scotland is not entitled to a financial kickback. In propping up the formal minority Conservative Government of Westminster Northern Ireland won the election lottery. Scotland didn’t.

But this deal highlights a grey area if not a political anomaly. The Barnett Formula was specifically designed to ensure changes to funding in one part of the UK – in effect, England – are applied proportionately in the rest of the UK. Yet, and here’s the bugbear, its application can be discretionary. Funding can be allocated outside the Barnett arrangement (as has happened recently in Scotland with funding for cities development).

Two factors, however, do leave the deal with the DUP compromised. Firstly, the extra funding for Northern Ireland is to be spent on areas such as health and education, where Scotland and Wales have appropriate claims for equivalent treatment for these devolved responsibilities. The second factor arising is how the Conservatives continue to be increasingly damaged. Their Scottish Secretary, David Mundell, has said he would oppose a deal that “deliberately sought to subvert the Barnett rules”. By implication, this suggests that Mr Mundell must have believed that any deal would be subject to the Barnett arithmetic. What other arrangement did he have in mind if the deal announced doesn’t subvert the Barnett rules? There is no other alternative as to what he could have had in mind.

Mr Mundell’s unease is symptomatic of the situation the wider Conservative Party find themselves in. Mrs May’s authority is undermined, her leadership is faltering, and her days as prime minister do look numbered. Clinging onto power now comes at a staggering price of £100,000 per vote in the Commons, and the only part of the UK where this move will be popular is Northern Ireland. Throwing good money after bad could become Mrs May’s political legacy.

ANALYSIS

. Under the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement, the DUP’s ten MPs from Northern Ireland will vote with the Government not just on the Queen’s Speech and the Chancellor’s Budget, but also on security policy and, crucially, all aspects of Brexit.

. They will also back Theresa May on all confidence motions, meaning it is far less likely that her Government will fall. The Conservative Party’s 318 MPs and the ten DUP MPs make 328 – more than half of the 650 MPs in the House of Commons.

. In reality, the support of the DUP will give the Prime Minister an effective working majority of 13, given that Sinn Fein does not take up its seven seats, while Speaker John Bercow and his three deputies – two of whom are Labour MPs – do not take part in votes.

. The DUP will get £1billion in additional funding over two years – equal to a 5 per cent rise in the province’s budget – with the option to come back for more.

. The deal breaks down as £400million for infrastructure, including a new motorway interchange; £150million to provide ‘ultrafast’ broadband; £300million for health and education; £100million to tackle deprivation; and, £50million to be spent on mental health.

. Conservative pledges to scrap the triple lock on pensions and means-test the winter fuel allowance will not go ahead. But both of these measures were already heading for the exit in the wake of the general election result.

. Defence spending will continue to meet NATO’s 2 per cent target and cash support for farmers will remain at current levels until the next election.

. The open-ended nature of the deal could see the DUP coming back for more money in the next few years – or even holding the Government to ransom over key votes.

. Cuts to air passenger duty at Ulster’s airports and special corporation tax status could also be demanded.

. Some Conservatives also fear the alliance with the DUP could prove ‘toxic’ because of the party’s deeply conservative stance on issues such as gay rights and abortion. However, these do not come under the deal as powers are devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

 

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Britain, Government, Politics, Society

The Grenfell Tower tragedy has led to organised panic elsewhere

BRITAIN

Urgent safety reviews have now been ordered on all tower blocks following the Grenfell Tower block fire in London.

London’s Grenfell Tower tragedy was always likely to have immediate and wider repercussions. If there was a design flaw in the tower (namely, the combustible cladding) which contributed to the resulting inferno, then other buildings could have a similar problem. If established – as is now the case with other tower blocks in Camden, and likely to be elsewhere too – these buildings would inevitably be deemed unsafe until such time sufficient testing be carried out to establish their fitness for habitation, or until any flaws have been remedied. And in such circumstances, no local authority could take the risk of keeping residents in situ.

Tower blocks in the London borough of Camden have now been ruled to have serious safety concerns. Occupants were evacuated on Friday evening and through the night into Saturday morning following the advice of the fire service who said it could not guarantee the safety of residents in those blocks. While deeply unfortunate, the council faced no option but to move people out.

The situation has appeared to be chaotic, but while that, too, is unfortunate, that is the nature of an emergency evacuation. Long-term tenants who are understandably upset at the upheaval in their lives state there has never been a problem in their building before. Sadly, most devastating fires could be set against the same kind of history and argument.

If one of the possible consequences of failing to act is another disaster, then what we have witnessed in Camden is justified panic. Local authorities cannot fall back on the laws of probability to make a safety judgement on this scale.

Georgia Gould, Camden’s Council leader, said: ‘I know it’s difficult, but Grenfell changes everything.’ She’s right.

The next step, however, is to ensure that all buildings – not simply housing blocks – are fully tested. There will be upheaval, inconvenience and uncertainty, but it is work that must be carried out. There will be repercussions over how this crisis came about – such as through the criminal investigation and public inquiry which have now been launched – but, right now, the number one priority must be the immediate safety for all residents.

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Britain, Government, Policing

Policing formula for England and Wales under review

POLICING

MetCressidaDick

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick says she is facing a shortfall of £400million over the next few years if there is no change to the current police funding model.

GOVERNMENT MINISTERS are said to be considering a U-turn on police funding after the head of Scotland Yard has warned that the force is ‘stretched’ by terror attacks and violent crime.

Home Secretary Amber Rudd is under pressure to boost cash for the Metropolitan Police after Commissioner Cressida Dick said she was facing a shortfall of £400million over the next few years. She is also being pressed to scrap a controversial shake-up of a police funding formula following stark warnings that budget cuts in Britain’s biggest force would put London’s security at risk of a terror atrocity.

Met chiefs were braced to lose millions from their annual budget when the Home Office changes the method by which resources are allocated to forces across the country later this year. Before a previous shake-up was axed in 2015, Scotland Yard said it stood to lose £184million.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned the city has lost ‘thousands of police staff’ since 2010, while the Commissioner has said she would ‘obviously’ be seeking extra resources.

She said: ‘We’re not having any fewer calls from the public, so we’re stretched. We do undoubtedly need a very capable police service in the future for all the reasons people can see. I’m sure we can become more efficient, however, we need the resources to do the job and I am talking to the Government and to the Mayor about that.’

Mr Khan said: ‘I’m pleased that the Government look likely to drop their plans to change the police funding formula. However, this alone is not enough to protect police numbers in London or to ensure we are able to deal with major counter-terrorism incidents and the rise in violent crime.

‘The Home Office has already made the Metropolitan Police find £600million of savings following cuts since 2010. Their plans to make the Met find a further £400million of savings on top of this over the next few years will have a big impact on policing in London.’

The Government faced criticism during the general election over the scale of police cuts since 2010, which led to some 20,000 fewer police officers on the streets south of the Border, following the terror attacks in Manchester and on London Bridge.

A spokesperson for the Home Office said: ‘The Government is undertaking a period of engagement with policing partners and independent experts on the police funding formula. The arrangements are outdated and do not reflect the demands of modern policing.’

And it can also be disclosed that around 2,000 extra Met police officers will be armed with 50,000-volt Tasers to tackle the threat of terrorism and knife crime.

The force will hand more frontline officers with stun guns following a surge in violence – bringing the number carrying the controversial weapons to more than 6,400.

SCOTLAND

HUNDREDS of police officers in Scotland are to be axed despite the growing terror threat as Scottish ministers removes one of its flagship pledges to maintain manpower.

Senior officials in Scotland have published a report spelling out their vision for the future development of Police Scotland over the next decade.

The Policing 2026 document was almost identical to a draft published in February but the final report was handed to Justice Secretary Michael Matheson after a consultation.

A move to axe up to 400 officers remains central to the plan despite the spate of terrorist attacks on Britain’s streets during the consultation – which had a response rate among police officers and civilian workers of only 2 per cent.

Mr Matheson insisted recruitment would not be slowed until there was evidence officers had been prised away from desk-based roles and sent to the frontline.

But Scottish Labour said this was ‘barely credible’ given the financial constraints the force faces as it tackles a looming deficit of nearly £200million.

Andrea MacDonald, chairman of the Scottish Police Federation, representing rank-and-file officers, said: ‘The world has changed since February after the terror attacks, but Policing 2026 hasn’t.

‘The concerns of our officers have not been taken into account and the report is full of shorthand for cutting officer numbers.

‘We are also very concerned about the money being spent on this report and on implementing it, with high-salary jobs being created to make it possible, at a time of huge financial constraints.’

The Policing 2026 report was drawn up with the help of consultancy firm Deloitte, which was paid nearly £700,000 of taxpayers’ money.

It is a blueprint for the next decade that looks at how police should respond to new threats such as cybercrime.

The core of the plan is that more civilian workers will be needed for these tasks rather than uniformed officers.

But it comes as some violent crime continue to rise, which critics say will require more officers on the beat. Police and ministers insist that beat policing will not suffer because of the move to shift more officers away from their desks back onto the streets to mitigate the decline on overall officer numbers.

The final strategy was signed off by Chief Constable Phil Gormley.

Police Scotland outlined the initial plans in February to cut officer numbers by up to 400 as part of a ten-year policing plan.

Mr Gormley said recruitment levels would begin to slow between 2018 and 2020, while more specialist civilian staff in areas such as cybercrime will be recruited. He also pledged better use of technology such as body-worn video cameras, more effective deployment and releasing officers from ‘back office’ and corporate roles.

Mr Matheson said the Policing 2026 programme was ‘ambitious and challenging’, with measures to counter the threat of cybercrime and a greater emphasis on addressing vulnerability and mental health issues.

He said: ‘The Chief Constable has assured me that operational policing capacity will be increased and I have made it clear that officer recruitment should not be slowed until clear independent evidence is provided that this increase has been delivered. Officer numbers will remain well above the number we inherited in 2007.’

His comments end the SNP’s commitment to keep officer numbers 1,000 above the level inherited in 2007.

Scottish Labour justice spokesman Claire Baker said: ‘Police Scotland must plug the black hole at the heart of its budget.

‘The reality is that many of the difficulties experienced by Police Scotland sit at the door of an SNP Government that tied itself to a policy of extra officers that it didn’t properly fund, with support staff being cut and officers back-filling roles.’

Tory MSP Margaret Mitchell said recorded crime figures – which are at a record low – were not an accurate measure of demand on the force. She asked: ‘What is the Cabinet Secretary doing to ensure more accurate recording of demands on police time and how can the level of police numbers required to cope with the demand be decided without this accurate data?’

Mr Matheson said the Policing 2026 strategy was designed to reflect the fact 80 per cent of police calls do not relate to a crime.

Seven priorities – except crime

SEVEN ‘priorities’ have been published for the next decade of policing – which failed to mention crime.

A diagram in the Policing 2026 report showed the priorities printed on blue circles, with ‘localism’ at the top.

The others are inclusion, prevention, response, collaborative working, accountability and adaptability.

Last October, police published an earlier list of future ‘priorities’ – with catching criminals ranked in only fourth place.

‘Localism’, ‘inclusion’ and ‘prevention’ all came above ‘improving the well-being of individuals and communities by tackling crime’ – now ostensibly under the heading ‘response’. The list has been replaced by a circle in an apparent bid to show all of the priorities are now equally weighted.

The ‘main purpose of policing’, according to the latest Policing 2026 document, is to ‘improve the safety and wellbeing of persons, localities and communities’.

More local policing is included in the list despite station front desks being closed and fears of a reduction in officer numbers.

The list of priorities follows earlier Scottish Government figures showing 40 per cent of Scots lack confidence in the ability of police to ‘catch criminals’.

Earlier this year, Chief Constable Phil Gormley said officers should be judged on their compassion when they respond to vulnerable people in trouble and needing help. He said an average of 84 people a day go missing and a ‘significant proportion’ of them have dementia, while about 260 calls a day concern problems other than allegations of crimes.

But the comments come at a time when sexual crime and some forms of violent crime are rising.

Mr Gormley added: ‘Another issue for us is a broader understanding of what the nature of policing is, because it is often reduced to crime-fighting and of course crime-fighting is what we must and will do.

‘But so much of what the public call the police about is not crime. We have 260 calls a day from people who are worried about other people and that’s what policing does.

‘I need to create a service with colleagues that understands those challenges.’

 

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