Category Archives: Middle East

Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, United States

Egypt is on the brink of sliding into civil war, but the U.S. is best placed to help…

TENSIONS RISING IN CAIRO

There is a grave prospect that Egypt will descend into a bloody civil war and insurrection following the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi. The situation in Egypt is fast moving but another significant step has occurred with the military being accused of killing 51 protestors on Sunday. The fatalities include women and children, as well as hundreds of others injured.

The army said it opened fire after a group it described as ‘terrorists’ tried to storm a barracks on the outskirts of Cairo, where the deposed Egyptian president is believed to be detained under house arrest in the Officers Mess.

Television footage beamed across the world did identify a number of hooded men in the crowd brandishing weapons and firearms, but the large number of fatalities and wounded casualties will inevitably lead to an increase in tensions in a country that is now on the brink of collapse.

‘Egypt on the edge’: Egyptian military soldiers stand guard atop armoured personnel carriers near Cairo University, where supporters of Egypt's ousted President Mohammed Morsi have installed their camp in Giza, southwest of Cairo. [Photo-credit Manu Brabo]

‘Egypt on the edge’: Egyptian military soldiers stand guard atop armoured personnel carriers near Cairo University, where supporters of Egypt’s ousted President Mohammed Morsi have installed their camp in Giza, southwest of Cairo. [Photo-credit Manu Brabo]

To add to the already simmering tensions the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood has called for a ‘public uprising’ to protest against last week’s military takeover. The Brotherhood is urging Egyptians to revolt against ‘those trying to steal their revolution with tanks’. Supporters of the intervention, however, claim it was necessary to prevent Mr Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood’s political organisation, from mounting an Islamist takeover of the country by stealth.

If Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous nation, is to be spared the catastrophe of succumbing to a Syria-style civil war, urgent action will be required. Britain has called for ‘calm and restraint’, but the country best-placed to help is the United States. It donates at least $1.5 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Cairo each year.

Washington was supportive of Egypt’s first democratically elected government and has, understandably, been dismayed by the military’s conduct. The Obama administration, though, must now overcome its reservations and provide the support to the interim administration of Adly Mansour. Mr Mansour has the difficult task of not only changing the constitution and mandating for new elections, but for steering Egypt back to the path of democracy.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, United States

Egypt’s revolution and the ballot box…

EGYPT MUST COMPLETE ITS REVOLUTION

The events in Egypt led the British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, to say that ‘Democratic change is a process, not an event.’ Mr Hague, addressing a Conservative Middle East Council, last week, following the removal of Mohammed Morsi as Egypt’s prime minister, is supported by history with his argument. The revolution that deposed the dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011 has taken many surprising turns.

Egypt’s election of a president was designed to bring democracy to a country that has been missing for more than 80 years. The democratic legitimacy granted to Mr Morsi, a popular vote of more than 50 per cent at the ballot box just 12 months ago, was a mandate in reshaping the country as an Islamic Republic.

The revolution in Egypt continues following the removal of Mohammed Morsi by the military. But with tensions rising and the Muslim Brotherhood discontent with the democratic process, the revolution that stemmed from the Arab Spring of 2011 is putting democracy in danger.

The revolution in Egypt continues following the removal of Mohammed Morsi by the military. But with tensions rising and the Muslim Brotherhood discontent with the democratic process, the revolution that stemmed from the Arab Spring of 2011 is putting democracy in danger.

But rather than heal the economy or build up secular, civil institutions – a necessary prerequisite given the mix of Secularists, Christians and Muslims in the country – Morsi used his fragile mandate to push through a fundamentalist constitution, while overseeing the country’s descent into anarchy, chaos and economic crisis. The result was that the military stepped in on the pretext of reclaiming the revolution from the country’s democratically elected leader. Whilst its intervention was celebrated by millions who took to the streets, and tens of thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square, the army’s subsequent actions have been a mix of progressive action and of being troubling. The choice of a civilian judge as interim president suggests that the military’s intentions are good, but it has also started to arrest members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a reflection of the dictatorial authoritarianism of the old Mubarak regime.

President Barack Obama said the new government should ‘avoid any arbitrary arrests of President Morsi and his supporters’. That is surely right, for there should always be a space for Islamists in a country on the road to reform and democracy. Exclusion would only lead to sectarian violence.

Yet, some analysts have commented that part of the febrile situation in Egypt rests with President Obama, who has sent convoluted and mixed signals: first supporting the 2011 revolution and then remaining neutral. Mirthfully, or as ironic as the situation has become, the lack of US involvement convinced some in the Egyptian opposition that Mr Obama supported President Morsi. In May, the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, expressed dissatisfaction with Egypt’s commitment to democracy, but, just a month later, the United States agreed to give the Egyptian army $1.3 billion in aid.

American law is clear on restricting assistance to any country whose elected head of government has been deposed by a military coup or decree – a legal provision in U.S. statute which has given Mr Obama an opportunity to show some leadership.

Washington has stated that it will withhold the $1.3 billion if the generals are judged to have staged a coup, and it is difficult to draw any other conclusion. But this threat should be used by Mr Obama as leverage to compel the military to commit to elections as soon as possible, preferably with a clear itinerary and timetable attached. That would be the best outcome and a necessary condition if Egypt is to complete its revolution.

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