Category Archives: Middle East

Government, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Politics, United Nations, United States

Israel widens the war. Iran could soon be the arch enemy

MIDDLE EAST

NOT since the Saxon nobility were wiped out in the Battle of Hastings, including King Harold and his brothers, almost 1,000 years ago, has one side annihilated the leadership of its arch enemy so suddenly and thoroughly.

First the Israelis killed, blinded, and maimed thousands of middle-ranking Hezbollah fighters, by triggering explosions in their pages and walkie-talkies.

Then, in the last few days, in a series of surgical strikes – precise as they were powerful – Israel’s air force dropped up to 16 bunker-busting bombs onto the underground lair where Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was huddled with his top brass.

They must have believed they were safe in their reinforced concrete hideaway, but for so many essential figures to be gathered in one place displayed reckless hubris which was ruthlessly punished.

Around 20 senior militia commanders were killed, including the security head of the organisation, Ibrahim Hussein Jazini, and Nasrallah’s closest confidante, Samir Tawfiq Dib. Nabil Qaouk, a key figure in Hezbollah’s central council, was killed in a separate air attack.

By any sane rationale, the war between Israel and Hezbollah should be over. But fanatics are neither sane nor rational.

This is a fighting force whose lower ranks are obsessed with martyrdom. They have been comprehensively defeated, but that does not mean they will surrender.

Until now, the Islamist militia was rigidly disciplined, with Nasrallah wielding supreme control. But with the decapitation of their leadership and the destruction of their communications network, the minions of Hezbollah will have nothing to guide them but their own maniacal – and perhaps suicidal – initiatives.

As much as half their stockpiles of rockets, shells, and artillery has been destroyed, but there is still a mass of weapons at the disposal of local commanders eager to burnish their own combat reputations and leadership ambitions.

Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu will probably feel he has no choice but to order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to stamp out the smouldering remains of Hezbollah. But that is a high-risk strategy for three reasons.

Firstly, Israeli casualties will be higher. In the featureless plains of Gaza, their enemy has nowhere to hide. But in the hilly terrain of Lebanon, it can dart in and out of cover and wreak havoc with its armour-penetrating missiles.

Secondly, a ground invasion will create a huge refugee crisis. In the past week alone, some 80,000 civilians have fled Lebanon for makeshift camps in Syria. The Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati has warned up to a million people could be displaced.

This exodus could be the perfect cover for Hezbollah’s scattered remnants to spread insurgency across Europe. Unable to attack Israel, some might prefer to increase international pressure by exporting misery and violence to Israel’s supporters – with Britain chief among them.

Thirdly, perhaps ominously, the sheer effectiveness of Israel’s megaton assassinations is likely to accelerate the Iranian nuclear weapons programme.

Israel has already shown it has no compunction about killing enemies on Iranian soil, with the elimination in July of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Now, the knowledge that no underground bunker is safe will galvanise Iran’s leaders. While under huge internal pressure to retaliate against Israel directly, they fear the consequences – be they their own assassinations, or airstrikes against their nuclear facilities.

The mullahs will not want to provoke such an attack, especially as they are only weeks away from producing enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

They are likely to conclude it makes more sense to challenge Israel using its proxy militias, such as the Houthis in Yemen, whose rocket attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are designed to strangle Israel economically.

For Iran to create a viable nuclear weapon, it will also need a detonator – not an easy piece of technology to build. But this project, too, could be near completion, possibly with North Korean help.

If Iran does successfully test an atom bomb, international efforts to avert nuclear war will become increasingly hysterical. The UN Security Council could attempt to persuade Iran to freeze its nuclear programme in return for a ceasefire, but this would have little chance of success without the cooperation of the US, who might take the view there is no way to put the nuclear genie back in the bottle once a test has been conducted.

It appears that Israel has won a spectacular tactical victory over Hezbollah. But the main strategic enemy could soon be a nuclear-armed Iran. Armageddon beckons for one side – or both.

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Government, History, Intelligence, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Technology

Hezbollah’s indignant fury

MIDDLE EAST

THE terrifying attacks this week on thousands of pagers operated by Hezbollah across Lebanon is being perceived as the Pearl Harbour of the 21st century.

When the Japanese Navy Air Service bombed Pearl Harbour in 1941, their aim was to knock out America’s air power in the Pacific and prevent the US from joining the Second World War.

But, as history shows, they achieved precisely the opposite. Roused to indignant anger, the American public were instantly committed to the Allied cause – and Japan found itself facing a new and mighty enemy.

The operation carried out against Hezbollah and the Lebanese was spectacular on its own merits (despite the wickedness of the attacks) – with at least nine fatalities and more than 3,000 seriously injured.

Yet its wider significance is certain to resonate in the months and years to come.

If Israel, like Imperial Japan before it, thought this massive attack would serve to dissuade Hezbollah’s fighters from entering a full-scale war with the Jewish state, many should fear they will be disappointed.

Already the Islamists will be plotting their revenge – and Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu has been locked in talks at his defence ministry’s HQ in Tel Aviv over how to respond to a potential escalation.

Critically, however, many will be asking how did Israel actually achieve this?

There are several competing theories. The Israelis could have planted old-fashioned booby traps in the thousands of pagers – which are said to have been delivered to Hezbollah fighters only in recent days.

More likely, is that the pagers were pre-loaded with a sophisticated computer virus that caused them to deliberately overheat, resulting in their lithium batteries catching fire.

This is a known risk of the batteries used in many electronic devices – and is part of the reason why airlines refuse to let passengers carry laptops in their checked luggage.

In whatever way Israel carried out the operation, it’s ironic that Hezbollah’s militants only recently swapped mobile phones for pagers in the belief that they were more secure.

Famously, mobiles carry GPS software that allows the devices – and therefore their users – to be tracked anywhere in the world.

A few weeks ago, Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh was hunted to a guesthouse in the Iranian capital of Tehran – and eliminated. Experts believe his assassination was possible only because his phone was being tracked.

The truth is that Israel excels at precisely this kind of warfare. Decades of facing down hostile neighbours that vastly outnumber its own citizens has led to the embattled Middle East developing a fearsome array of sophisticated military tools, from nuclear missiles and tanks to cyber-weapons.

Combined with this is the ruthlessness of its famed secret intelligence agency, Mossad, in tracking down and eliminating its enemies, from the perpetrators of the Munich Olympics massacre onwards. As we have seen, Mossad always gets its man – or men – in the end.

So, what comes next? If reports are right, and one in 30 of Hezbollah’s fighters have indeed been put out of action due to the pager attack, that will present a severe impediment to the group’s operational capability. The leadership will also be asking questions about how to communicate securely with its fighters in future.

With Hezbollah’s military organisation disrupted, the Israelis might decide to invade a portion of southern Lebanon to create a “buffer zone” that could protect civilians in northern Israel from rocket attacks.

Some experts will have concerns about this “contained” approach. For all the brutal ingeniousness of the pager attack, the consequences for regional security could be dire.

Instead, the pager operation is far more likely to be the prelude to another all-out Israel-Lebanon War – with grim consequences for world peace and stability.

Hezbollah’s allies, Iran and Syria, will inevitably be anxious and worried that Israeli intelligence could do the same to them. But even those Arab countries with diplomatic relations with Israel, such as Egypt and Jordan, must now be asking themselves how safe they really are – and whether or not their communication networks are secure. This will weaken Israel’s ability to build friendships in the region.

And there could be consequences for us, too. Western democracies will already be assessing what this novel form of warfare means for them – and how they might be able to copy Israel’s methods.

History teaches us that no new military technique remains a monopoly of its inventor for long. How long before Putin or Xi Jinping works out how to make millions of iPhones around the world burst into flames in the pockets of their foes?

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Britain, China, Government, Intelligence, Middle East, Russia, Society, United States

Spy chiefs give joint-interview at Festival

US-UK INTELLIGENCE

IN a rare public appearance, Richard Moore, the head of MI6, has warned that Russia’s intelligence services have become “feral” and “reckless” in the way they are plotting attacks in Britain and across Europe.

In an historic joint interview with the head of the CIA, Mr Moore said Moscow is now using criminal gangs for state-sponsored terror attacks in Europe. The attacks are “more amateurish” and are endangering more lives.

His CIA counterpart William Burns said coordinated operations between UK and US intelligence services are thwarting the plots across the Continent and in mainland Britain. The intelligence chiefs were appearing before a Festival in north London, where they spoke of the long-standing relationship between MI6 and the CIA.

Mr Burns also revealed how the CIA feared Vladimir Putin was going to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the autumn of 2022, after falsely accusing Volodymyr Zelensky of amassing nuclear materials for such an attack against his troops.

The CIA chief also said 90 per cent of a new peace deal between Israel and Hamas is complete, adding that its details may be published in the “next few days”.

Mr Moore, known as C by his officers, spoke about how the two services often conduct intelligence operations together. “We will sometimes decide who is better-placed to go first – we call it the best athlete model. Whoever is best placed to do it, we work in a non-competitive way to get the result,” he said.

The MI6 boss said Russia’s intelligence services have conducted sabotage and criminal acts in Britain and in Europe, becoming “a lot more feral”. He added: “The fact they are using a criminal element shows they are becoming a bit desperate – they can’t use their own people. They’re happy to use criminals. It’s just a bit more reckless.”

Mr Moore referred to an arson attack in Leyton, east London, on a Ukraine-linked business, which is suspected of being directed by Moscow. Two men have since been charged for helping Russian intelligence after the Metropolitan Police used terrorism powers to investigate.

He also said the Salisbury poisoning in 2018 was “emblematic” of the recklessness of Russian agents.

“They left a large phial of a deadly poison lying around to be picked up,” he said. “It could have killed an entire school – in fact, it killed an innocent British civilian.”

Two Russian agents daubed Novichok nerve agent on the doorknob of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, which nearly killed him and his daughter. But the perfume bottle with the poison in it was later picked up by a woman, who later died.

Speaking publicly for the first time about how the CIA feared Russia was close to using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine months into the conflict, Mr Burns said: “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 that I think there was a genuine risk of potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. I felt we should not be intimidated by Putin.”

He was dispatched to the Turkish capital Ankara to tell the head of the FSB, Sergei Naryshkin, how the West would respond “militarily” if Russia used nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The CIA chief said: “We cannot afford to be intimidated by that sabre-rattling and bullying. The record shows the United States has provided enormous support to Ukraine, and I’m sure we’ll continue to.”

Mr Burns has been intimately involved in the difficult negotiations in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel, with Qatar and Egypt acting as intermediaries.

He said 90 per cent of a peace deal is complete, adding: “The last 10 per cent is the last 10 per cent for a reason… it’s the hardest part to do. But we will make this more detailed proposal, I hope in the next several days, then we’ll see.”

And he warned that Hamas cannot be entirely defeated. “You can severely degrade their military capabilities, but it is a movement and an idea, and the way you kill an idea is with a better idea.”

The intelligence chiefs – who gave a public interview to the editor of the Financial Times on the grounds of Kenwood House in Hampstead – said China was their main preoccupation, with 20 per cent of the CIA’s resources being devoted to the Beijing regime.

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