Category Archives: Society

Donald Trump, Government, Politics, Society, United States

The 58th presidency of the United States looms

UNITED STATES

donald-trump

President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated on January 20, 2017, at the United States Capitol.

Intro: Donald Trump now needs to be presidential. From January 20, what he says and how he acts will soon no longer be a preamble or rehearsal in garnering support.

DONALD TRUMP made some extraordinary pronouncements during the U.S. election campaign. Alongside his current Twitter feed, one which gives insight into his thinking and intentions, Americans will be awaiting his anointment as president with a mounting sense of either delight or dread.

The Trump show will shortly begin. As the most powerful man in the world he will be under the spotlight as never before, holding centre stage, with everyone watching. From January 20, what he says and how he acts will soon no longer be a preamble or rehearsal in garnering support.

Following the announcement in November of his election victory, the president-elect gave a surprising reaction after meeting the man he will replace at the White House.

He spoke of his “great respect” for Mr Obama and said he very much looked forward to taking his counsel in the future.

Fine words, and we should hope they are true. Mr Trump would do well, too, to pay equal deference to the US’s top intelligence officials who have briefed him over Russia’s interference in the presidential election.

Many observers, not just in America, but elsewhere, will have reacted with dismay and disbelief to Mr Trump’s previous attempts to rubbish the case as a political witch hunt by people smarting from being “beaten very badly” in the election. If this is a sign to come, Mr Trump needs to battle against his own instincts.

Being president is entirely different from being a presidential candidate, when the objective – as we have clearly seen – is to discredit your opponents and come out on top.

The Oval Office is all about nurturing allies and building alliances. Whilst the Republicans will hold more of the cards than the Democrats did under the current administration, a position in which Mr Trump is likely to get all his policies enacted, he will soon find out that no one person can do it all.

The new White House communications director Sean Spicer has pledged that the incoming president will listen to intelligence briefings with a “100 per cent” open mind. We trust that will be the case. Mr Spicer implicitly stated that Donald Trump would be prepared to listen and understand how the intelligence services reached their conclusions. He also stressed that a rush to judgment was not in the US’s best interest.

Many will hope that the president-to-be will also take that counsel. Standing up against the establishment and the political machine during the election campaign is one thing, which might win a few votes from the disaffected; but, as president – or more importantly commander in chief – Mr Trump is going to have to work with these people.

Trust will need to go both ways. Otherwise the world will undoubtedly become a more dangerous place.

There have already been many questions over Mr Trump’s relationship with Russia, no more so than the business interests he and other members of his government have there. There is expectation that Mr Trump will do things no previous president has done.

But, he must also understand there are things he has to do and ways he has to act. Mr Trump will have many advisers, though many will wonder whether he can take their advice on important matters of the state.

As global insecurity increases, Mr Trump cannot be allowed to be a loose cannon.

Standard
Arts, Government, Politics, Russia, Society, Technology, United States

The terrifying era of internet warfare

CYBER WARS

russian-hackers

America’s CIA says Vladimir Putin was behind Russian hackers’ bid to swing the U.S. presidential election. As the fallout continues, cyber wars are only at the infancy stage of the internet-war era.

SINCE the presidential election result was announced in November, America has become an embittered battlefield. The role of Russia in securing Donald Trump’s victory has caused fierce controversy.

The CIA, America’s intelligence agency, has asserted with “high confidence” that Kremlin-directed hackers were responsible for the revelation through Wikileaks of thousands of Democratic Party emails, derailing the Hillary Clinton campaign wagon just at a crucial moment during the election when Trump was in trouble over his misogynistic attitudes and appalling treatment of women.

In sensational developments last month, intelligence officials said that Russia’s President Putin was personally involved in the hacking campaign.

If that was not enough to spark intense unease in Western capitals, a spokesperson for President Obama launched an extraordinary attack on Mr Trump, saying that it was “obvious” he knew about the Russian interference in the election.

The President-elect dismisses as “ridiculous” the charges that the Russians helped to place him, their avowed friend, in the White House. Few even among his foes suggest that he won solely thanks to the hackers. But the 2016 U.S. election has highlighted the extraordinary influence now wielded by the internet upon every aspect of our world.

The former U.S. Secretary of State, Dr Henry Kissinger, wrote presciently in his 2014 book World Order: ‘Presidential elections are on the verge of turning into media contests between master operators of the internet . . . whose intrusiveness would have been considered only a generation ago the stuff of science fiction.’

What is most chilling, however, is the speed with which cyber conflict is now evolving.

America’s Information Operational Technology Centre was created in 1998 to spy on actual and potential enemies, corrupt their digital networks, and even by controlling their computers. Its early operations were unimpressive. During the 1999 bombing of Kosovo, its geeks made Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic’s telephone ring incessantly, which seems merely to have annoyed him.

Before one anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the Americans took down an Al Qaeda website, blocking the planned release of a propaganda broadcast by Osama bin Laden. Afterwards, however, counter-terrorist officers bitterly protested that all that had been achieved was to alert Al Qaeda to the vulnerability of its communications.

Continue reading →

Standard
Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society, Terrorism, United States

2017 will be a year of major challenges

CHALLENGES, RISKS & CHANGE

Intro: There is a sense that the unglamorous hard grind will start to bear down on the detailed practicalities of change during 2017

Following the shocks and political reverberations of 2016 it should come as no surprise that relatively few have jumped forth with confident predictions for the year ahead. Yet apprehension over the future is high as the effects of the past 12 months crystallise in the weeks and months ahead.

Identifying the reasons as to why many are fearful will not be difficult. Nonetheless, buoyant financial markets in both America and the UK over the last few days have seen record highs. Businesses are sensing opportunities under a Trump administration that is pledging a boost to federal government spending on infrastructure as well as a major overhaul to the tax code in the United States. This is likely to lead to tax cuts for households and firms alike. Here in the UK, estimates for third-quarter growth have been revised up to 0.6 per cent on quarter, while household and consumer spending has been boosted by high employment and a relatively modest growth in real incomes. Hitherto, while a notable slowdown is expected over 2017, the dire predictions of economic recession in the wake of the EU referendum vote have proved overly pessimistic and we are starting the New Year from a much firmer base than many had predicted.

But major uncertainty persists over Brexit. The calls by the Scottish Government for Scotland to remain in the Single Market, and the issue as to whether beneficial trading relationships can be established with other EU countries, are clear examples of the muddle and disarray. Whilst lack of detail is frustrating, there is a notable mood across the business world to make the best of our situation and by getting on with the job. The depreciation and fall in the value of sterling offers opportunities for UK firms to boost exports and for many firms in the food and drink sector to build a presence in overseas markets. In Scotland, our tourism and events sector, spanning hotels, hospitality and conference catering, stands to benefit.

There is a sense that the unglamorous hard grind will start to bear down on the detailed practicalities of change during 2017. The focus is likely to be upon legislative changes. However, we also face an elevated degree of geo-political risk. Recent terrorist attacks across Europe and elsewhere are indicative of the challenges facing government and the intelligence agencies.

Barbaric attacks such as those in Istanbul cannot but heighten tensions across Europe. Adding further to security precautions in many European capitals, the woes and fears that governments have across Europe for their people is becoming distinctly palpable.

Fear of further such attacks, including the use by Islamic State of chemical weapons, will undoubtedly increase public anxiety and growing voter mood of unease across Europe. The British Government has already warned that ISIS could unleash such devastating weapons on our streets. Voter discontent is also threatening to bring major election upsets in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, the ever-belligerent North Korea has taken another step towards long-range nuclear strike capability. The country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has claimed that the country is now close to testing long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

A febrile 2017 seems likely to pose challenges as big as anything we have faced before.

Standard