Category Archives: United States

Foreign Affairs, Iraq, United States

Iraqi casualties of war continue to rise…

IRAQ

Recent research suggests that around half-a-million Iraqis died as a result of the war and occupation of their country between 2003 and 2011. Reliability of data on war deaths will always raise questions of a dubious nature because of the difficulties of conducting and reporting a comprehensive survey in a war zone.  Equally, too, there will always be political controversies over the figures presented. In the case of Iraq, a lower-than-expected death toll may be co-opted by those who wish to maintain that intervention was justified, the reverse holding true for detractors who will naturally imply the toll is far too high. Opposing views, however, should not distract from the fact that the tally- count is overly ghastly either way.

Much blood is still being shed in Iraq. The war itself may have officially ended when the U.S. withdrew its troops in 2011, but the death toll continues to rise. The situation is steadily worsening because of the cold-bloodied civil war in Syria. Events over the border have added to the abiding strains on Sunni-Shia relations, as well as providing extremist groups that are active throughout the region – particularly in unstable Iraq – with an incentive to push their own agendas.

Sectarian violence in Iraq reached its peak five years ago, but by any reckoning it is now back on the rise. With more than 5,000 deaths since April, this year is already the bloodiest since 2008.  In September alone, close to 1,000 people were killed – the majority of whom were Shia civilians wiped out by insurgent bombs exploding at public events like funerals or at markets. Such tactics are being used to cause maximum bloodshed.

Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s Prime Minister, has not helped either. By failing to conciliate Iraq’s Sunni majority, his corrupt, Shia-dominated government has pushed the disaffected into the embrace of murderous terrorist groups. So long as the conflict in Syria continues, Iraq will continue to endure the painful repercussions.

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Economic, Financial Markets, Government, Politics, Society, United States

A US default would trigger financial-armageddon…

AMERICA ON A PATH OF SELF-DESTRUCTION

For weeks, now, the world has watched anxiously as the richest and most powerful nation on earth has set itself on a definite course of self-destruction. First came the partial shutdown of the government over Congress’s refusal to agree a budget resolution; now, with even more seriousness, America is approaching the point at which it will reach the ceiling for its national debt, and will, presumably, have to default because no money is available for the U.S. to pay its debts.

The seriousness of the situation is such that the global financial system is built around the idea that America’s debt is the safest of all – usually in the form of bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. It is this underpinning that makes the dollar the world’s main currency reserve, with Japan and China having each bought more than $1 trillion of U.S. bonds. Other nations around the world have also invested heavily, with hundreds of billions tied up in U.S. treasury debt. The thought now that such borrowing might not be secure has sent tremors through financial markets.

The consequences need to be understood. In a worst-case scenario, a U.S. default would trigger a financial-armageddon, and one that would match or eclipse that of the 2008 financial crisis. More likely, though, is a selective default, with individual bonds failing to be recognised (as each rolls-over). Whilst that would not immediately undermine the dollar’s currency reserve status, it would chip away at the faith and confidence the world has placed in America, accelerating the decline that many feel is already under way. Beijing’s repeated calls to ‘de-Americanise’ the world economy is eroding America’s prestige and prosperity, but, that said, there is no alternative reserve currency waiting to take the dollar’s place, as there was when the pound fell from global prominence.

Then there are the economic ramifications. Once the debt limit has been reached, the U.S. would be forced to live within its means. In the long-term that would be a good thing as expenditure could only be pared against tax receipts. The immediate constriction of government spending, however, on such a scale – given the current levels of American borrowing – would prompt an immediate and severe recession. The world economy would be brought to a shuddering halt.

One wonders whether the current antics, particularly that of the Tea Party, is appreciated to such an extent that it is undermining America’s image, power and credibility. The willingness of Tea Party Republicans to renege on fiscal promises that Congress has already made does raise questions far exceeding political gerrymandering.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, United States

Why has the U.S. taken this long to cut aid to Egypt?

U.S. AID TO EGYPT

Washington’s decision to suspend some of its military aid to Egypt is long overdue. By all accounts it should have happened months ago following the military style coup in Egypt that led to the fall of President Mohamed Morsi. America’s decision, however, is still only a symbolic gesture, one that the Obama administration acknowledges will have scant impact on either the regime’s crackdown on the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood or the pace of returning Cairo to democracy. Some commentators may view it as a carefully calibrated balancing act between the need to preserve US interests in the region and the desire to uphold the democratic principles it purports to value.

Had Washington’s decision come three months ago, immediately after the ousting of Mr Morsi, it might have carried some weight. Instead, the American administration refused to use the word coup, and has continued to do so even as it unveiled belated sanctions against the country. At the same time, Egypt’s military-backed regime has moved at its own pace, unhindered and unrestricted in its approach. Yet, whilst measures are being drawn up for a return of normal government – which are likely to be approved in a forthcoming referendum – most of the Brotherhood leadership are behind bars and Islamic media outlets are shut down. Such measures are likely to amount to very little.

Following Washington’s belated reprimand, Cairo announced almost at once Mr Morsi’s trial and declared that Egypt ‘will not surrender to American pressure’.

The US move may even actually boost the regime’s popularity, reducing what many see as a humiliating foreign dependency. Neither will it greatly affect the security balance in the region. Israel is agonised because such a cut in U.S. aid might jeopardise the 1979 treaty upon which its subsequent ‘cold peace’ with Egypt has rested.

The referendum may give the United States a pretext in resuming full military assistance to Cairo, a proviso Washington appears to be calling for. However, this temporary interruption in aid will not only end up pleasing no one, but will demonstrate once and for all how little influence the US wields in the most populous Arab country. To have had any real impact, America should have made its decision months ago.

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