European Union, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States

Russian troops continue to amass on the Ukrainian border…

UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said there are ‘record number’ of Russian troops on his country’s borders with Russia.

Speaking this week, Poroshenko said that the information came from NATO, US and EU sources as well as Ukrainian intelligence.

Reports of an increasing Russian presence on the border have been recurring since NATO commander Philip Breedlove warned last month of the risk of a return to heavy fighting in Eastern Ukraine. Kiev has repeatedly reported snap surges in violence by Russian backed rebels in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions during this time.

Most recently Ukraine’s defence forces complained of 540 violations of the ceasefire signed between Moscow, Kiev and the rebels in February, all in the space of just a week at the end of June.

As early as May, intelligence was portraying a mass build-up of troops and heavy weapons on the Russian side of the Ukraine-Russian border including tanks, rocket launchers and artillery.

Speaking about the current situation, Poroshenko said: ‘We have information that a record number of Russian armed forces have been stationed on the Ukrainian border.’

‘The evidence we have is not solely from our own intelligence sources, but we have confirmation from NATO and US lines as well as from EU states.’

Poroshenko recently visited some of the easternmost positions held by pro-Kiev forces in Donetsk region, including the port city Mariupol, the outskirts of which have sustained some of the most persistent attacks from pro-Russian separatists since February.

‘We have information about possible key targets of attacks and we regularly perform staff exercises,’ Poroshenko said. ‘We will defend our country. Today we have a completely different army compared with a year ago.’

The Ukrainian president did not give a precise number for how many Russian soldiers he believes are now on Ukraine’s border, but last month defence minister Stepan Poltorak estimated that there were 55,000.

Irrefutable evidence

The Prime Minister of Ukraine has claimed that Vladimir Putin is trying to ‘eliminate Ukraine’ as conflict continues between government-backed troops and rebels.

Russia has persistently denied supporting separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine with money and weaponry but Arseniy Yatsenyuk said there was irrefutable evidence of the presence of Russian fighters and equipment.

He has claimed ‘tens of thousands’ of soldiers and guerrillas were in Donetsk and Luhansk with Russian-supplied tanks and missiles.

‘Putin’s aim is to kill the Ukrainian project, just to eliminate Ukraine — I have no doubt,’ he said. ‘For Putin, Ukraine is the battlefield against the free world.’

Mr Yatsenyuk, who rose to his post after the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych in February last year, said he was ‘absolutely sure’ that MH17 was shot down by ‘Russian-led terrorists’, possibly with the help of Russian soldiers.

Ukraine is among countries including the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium and Malaysia calling for an international tribunal on the disaster that killed 298 people exactly a year ago.

The Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond supported the calls while offering his condolences to everyone affected by the disaster and promising the Government’s support for families of the 10 Britons who also died.

‘Justice must be delivered for the 298 innocent people who lost their lives,’ Mr Hammond said.

‘That requires an international tribunal, backed by a resolution binding all UN member states, to prosecute those responsible.

‘Any attempt to undermine this process would deprive the victims of justice and cannot be tolerated.’

A UN resolution would bind all member states to bring charges against whoever shot down MH17 but Russia is expected to use its veto on the Security Council to prevent the tribunal.

Speaking with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Mr Putin said it would be ‘premature and counterproductive’ before initial investigations were completed, according to a Kremlin statement.

Mr Rutte had said the move would give ‘the best guarantee of cooperation from all countries’ in seeking justice for the families of the victims.

On the day the Boeing 777 went down, a post attributed to a rebel leader claimed separatists had shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane in Donetsk.

The swiftly-deleted post, accompanied by a video of rising smoke, said: ‘We warned them – don’t fly in our sky.’

Separatist forces operating around the crash site in Hrabove have since denied any involvement but Russian rebel leader Igor Girkin has been named in a lawsuit seeking $900 million (£575 million) in damages for the families of 18 passengers – six of them British.

The Netherlands is leading the criminal investigation into the downing of MH17 as most of the passengers were Dutch and a final report on the cause of the crash is due to be released in October by the Dutch Safety Board.

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Europe, European Union, Foreign Affairs, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

Preventing dismemberment of Ukraine requires conciliatory compromise…

UKRAINE

In the aftermath of the Donetsk referendum on independence for the new ‘People’s Republic’, Roman Lyagin, the region’s self-styled electoral commissioner, has proclaimed a charade of an election result. The fact that the total of the yes, no and spoilt votes exceeded 100 per cent, Western observers – including the British Foreign Secretary William Hague – rightly concluded that this contest was ‘illegitimate’ and had ‘zero credibility’.

Despite the surreal nature of the plebiscite, the outcome is nothing other than deadly serious. The most populous regions of Ukraine, with 4.5 million people and the industrial powerhouse of the economy, now stands on the brink of merging with Russia. We should be under no illusion: the shadowy circle of kleptocratic pro-Kremlin leaders who organised this poll, with the resulting 89 per cent ‘yes’ vote, is leading the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk along a road that seems certain to end in union with Russia.

Ukraine’s new post-revolutionary government has no answer to the challenge. In what was described as a military offensive by the Ukrainian army prior to Sunday’s vote in restoring control over Donetsk, that strategy can only be deemed a fiasco upon reflection. The city of Mariupol, with its half-a-million residents, has effectively been conceded to the pro-Russian movement.

A chink of light may, however, provide a way out of the crisis. One of the referendum’s absurdities was a vague and indiscreet question that asked voters to assent to ‘self-rule’, clearly something which should have been clarified as to meaning. If Kiev were now to open proper talks and dialogue with the pro-Russian movement and make a generous and specific offer of regional autonomy, that might allow both sides to step back from the brink. Those hardliners in Kiev will no-doubt have difficulty in negotiating with a motley collection of Russian allies, particularly as Moscow is once again ramping up the threats to turn off Ukraine’s gas supplies, but the alternative will only exasperate an already tense and bitterly volatile situation.

It seems certain now that, given the events in Ukraine over the past few months, unless a bold and conciliatory move is made by Kiev, the dismemberment of Ukraine looks inevitable.

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Europe, European Union, Government, Politics, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

As Ukraine relaunches an anti-terrorist operation against rebels, Russia provides a stern warning…

Eastern cities and towns of Ukraine

UKRAINE

Russia has promised to retaliate if its interests are attacked as Ukraine’s leaders relaunched their ‘anti-terror’ offensive and threatened to ‘liquidate’ armed pro-Russian rebels.

With tensions continuing to rise and the much heralded Geneva peace deal in tatters, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Vitaly Yarema said security agencies would target Kremlin supporters in key eastern cities, driving them from buildings they have occupied for several weeks.

Mr Yarema said:

… Security agencies are working to liquidate all the groups operating in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and the other towns in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

His declaration came after two men, including a pro-Kiev politician, Volodymyr Rybak, were said to have been tortured to death by pro-Russian forces near the flashpoint eastern city of Slaviansk.

A disturbing video has emerged showing Mr Rybak, a member of the Batkivschhyna party led by former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, surrounded by a mob before being manhandled by several men, including a masked man in camouflage. Mr Rybak had attempted to remove the flag of the separatist Donetsk Republic. It is believed both men had been tortured and thrown in a river to drown.

Interim Ukrainian leader Oleskander Turchinov cited the deaths as a reason to relaunch the previously ineffective ‘anti-terror’ operation. He insists that terrorists have effectively taken the whole Donetsk region hostage and have crossed a line by starting to torture and murder Ukrainian patriots. Mr Turchinov says these crimes have been carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation. The aim of the anti-terrorist measures is to protect Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from such violent acts. Armed separatists have already been flushed out of an eastern town on the outskirts of Sviatogorsk as part of this anti-terror drive.

But that brought an immediate rebuke from Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who said Moscow will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked. Mr Lavrov said that Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation and has accused the United States of ‘running the show’ in Ukraine. The Russian foreign minister claimed it was ‘quite telling’ that Kiev had relaunched its anti-terrorist operation during a high profile visit by US vice-president Joe Biden.

Mr Yarema, speaking a day after meeting Mr Biden, said:

… We have obtained the support of the United States… that they will not leave us alone with an aggressor. We hope that in the event of Russian aggression this help will be more substantive.

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk has warned that the risk of eastern regions of Ukraine becoming detached is real. He fears that we will not have to wait long before we see more acts unfolding in Ukraine.

Russian gas giant Gazprom has said it will turn off supplies to Ukraine next month unless Kiev pays its debts. That would have a knock-on effect on deliveries to Europe, because much of the gas transits through Ukrainian territory.


  • 25 April, 2014

As two more pro-Moscow separatists have been killed in shoot-outs with Ukrainian troops, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has warned that the escalating violence would have ‘consequences’.

With some 40,000 Russian soldiers on the border, he did not specify what action he would take, but warned that Ukraine was committing a crime by carrying out a ‘punitive operation’ against pro-Russian insurgents. They have been occupying buildings for several weeks now in ten eastern Ukrainian cities.

The Ukrainian government and many in the West fear Russia is seeking a pretext for a military intervention in eastern Ukraine, where Mr Putin insists he has the right to protect ethnic Russians.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has warned that the situation in Ukraine ‘could quickly spin out of control’.

Within hours of Mr Putin’s warning, Russia began military drills near the Ukrainian border with defence minister Sergei Shoygu declaring: ‘If this military machine is not stopped, it will lead to greater numbers of dead and wounded.’ Ukraine’s acting interim president Oleksandr Turchinov called for Mr Putin to stop the drills, pull his troops away from the border and to end the Russian ‘blackmail’ of the country.

Ukrainian forces are now stationed around the eastern city of Slaviansk in an ostensible preparation for an assault. Stella Khorosheva, a spokesperson for the pro-Russian insurgents, insisted fighters would ‘repel the troops’, and said they are ready to ‘repeat Stalingrad’.

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