Tag Archives: Mosul

Britain, Government, Iraq, Islamic State, Politics, Terrorism, United Nations, United States

The West has a responsibility in Iraq

mosul

Mosul: Violence in Iraq continues to escalate.

IRAQ

Intro: Recognising the huge human cost that the war is having on Iraq, we must accept and understand that we have an ongoing responsibility to help bring the bloodshed to an end.

Violence still engulfs Iraq. The United Nations has said that at least 6,878 Iraqi civilians were killed in 2016, a number that is most certain to be on the low side because of the unverifiable number of civilian deaths in war zones. And we do not know the full death toll from the ongoing fighting in that country because the Iraqi government has not published the causality figures for government troops and paramilitary forces fighting in Mosul and elsewhere in northern Iraq. It is a tragic toll.

In December alone, 109 civilians perished and 523 injured in Baghdad. These are largely attributed to Islamic State who have claimed responsibility for a string of bombings. But, as IS get shifted out of Mosul and other areas they have controlled, the bombings will only get worse. Fanatics will carry on the fight on the streets of the country’s cities.

Recognising the huge human cost that the war is having on Iraq, we must accept and understand that we have an ongoing responsibility to help bring the bloodshed to an end. Along with the United States we were at the forefront of the regime change invasion of Iraq that has unleashed such a violent insurrection since. Britain cannot be allowed to wash its hands as if now the mayhem has nothing to do with them. It does.

The conclusions of the Chilcot Inquiry found many failings of the UK but was specifically critical of the way in which the U.S. dismantled the security and intelligence apparatus of Saddam Hussein’s army, as well as describing the whole invasion as a strategic failure. Whilst the immediate violence is largely being perpetrated by IS and its fanatics, the West could have served the Iraqi people much better after getting involved.

It is always difficult to stand back and watch merciless dictators with no compunction committing butchery on their own people, but the long-term costs of not thinking through action from the start is now all too clear. Western intervention and the lack of proper military plans in Iraq – in dealing with all that has happened since that ill-fated invasion of 2003 – explains much of what we are witnessing now. Hideous incompetence.

A lesson we still seem not to have learnt in Syria.

Standard
Britain, Iraq, Islamic State, United Nations, United States

The future of Mosul depends on winning hearts and minds

MOSUL, IRAQ

mosul3

The UN has predicted that at least 200,000 people will flee in the coming days as Mosul comes under attack from warring factions.

Intro: This is an opportunity to win the hearts and minds of young and old alike

Dramatic television footage from within the city of Mosul depict not only the advancing of troops but of life-and-death battles between warring factions. It is easy to be distracted from yet another flood of refugees seeking shelter and safety.

While aid agencies may be experienced in what they do, however, even they cannot cope with the sheer numbers involved. In the last 10 days, more than 5,000 men, women and children have fled their homes in Mosul and crossed the border into Syria.

Aid and Relief agencies are now attempting to provide makeshift homes for displaced families in the al-Hol refugee camp which was meant to give refuge to 7,500 people but currently holds over 9,000.

Save the Children says the camp has only 16 latrines, with human waste littering the ground. The site also has no clean running water for the refugees to drink or cook with.

The camp is in the process of being expanded to take 50,000 people, but the biggest focus now must be on what we can do to ensure that the people living in the camp, and others like it, are treated with dignity and respect.

The UN has predicted that at least 200,000 people will flee in the coming days as the city comes under increasing attack, and head for camps being constructed in the north, south and east of the city. Given these huge numbers, we should be preparing to help this tide of people who will be living in tents during the winter (and most likely for some time to come).

This is not just a humanitarian crisis which should appeal to our conscience by ensuring that each individual in the camp is treated properly and fairly by being given more than just the basics of survival. It is one that should also be at the forefront of our minds that many of these people will return to Mosul and will take with them the memory of what life was like there.

This is an opportunity to win the hearts and minds of young and old alike. Among the thousands in the camps will be impressionable young men and women, fired by a sense of injustice. While their older relatives may be more accustomed and schooled in the realities of war, the young still have the potential to make up their own minds by what they see in front of them. Once Mosul is liberated, these people need to have affinity with the West and believe it acted to help them in their time of greatest need. It is not inconceivable to believe that if the camps are filled with horror then we will not have them on our side, leaving a vacuum that could be filled by IS.

Large scale military operations could be used in getting aid to the camps.

We should remember the recent damning lessons as published in the UK’s Iraq War Enquiry, which was chaired by Sir John Chilcot. This found that one of the major failings was the failure to plan and prepare for the future following the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

We cannot be allowed to fail again.

Standard
Britain, Iraq, Islamic State, Terrorism, United Nations, United States

The ramifications of liberating Mosul

IRAQ

IRAQ-CONFLICT-MOSUL

Iraqi Peshmerga fighters fire a multiple rocket launcher east of Mosul as part of a broad coalition to retake the city from Islamic State.

Intro: The long-awaited attack on the Iraqi city of Mosul has begun. Taking Mosul will force IS to change its tactics.

Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, is the last big prize that Islamic State hold. It is the city from which they announced the creation of their caliphate in 2014. The city means a lot to them and they might well decide that this is a last stand. That will mean a long and arduous battle, close-quarter urban and asymmetric warfare which will become bloody and slow. Civilian casualties are likely to be high as IS seek to be protected through the use of human shields.

The UN will have been making plans for this contingency and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees has issued an appeal for an additional $61m (£50m) to provide tents, camps, and winter items such as blankets for displaced people inside Iraq and the two neighbouring countries. The fears that residents could be used as human shields – by, for example, being placed on rooftops in an attempt to deter airstrikes – and, that as many as a million people could be forced to flee their homes, has the makings of another humanitarian tragedy. Surely the governments involved in the broad coalition in the war against IS will ensure that the UN have the money and supplies that they need.

Worryingly, there may be another tactic that is more attractive to IS. There is likely to be a realisation within the organisation that the caliphate will not remain, which is likely to suggest that in pursuit of their long-term goals it would be better to flee in to the desert. That could involve as many as 10,000 fighters who could re-group and re-build. If they stand and fight in Mosul what may be left? The threats to Western societies are very real.

Regardless of tactics and time, however, there are two virtual certainties in this situation. The first is that Mosul will be re-taken by pro-government forces, it is only a matter of when and at what cost. The second is that IS will not be wiped out, but will turn in to an even more hardened terrorist organisation, not merely a territory-holding army, and be capable of conducting a campaign of insurgency. The big question here is just how effective it could be and what resources it could command.

When IS first took over its towns and cities there were local reports of at least some support for the organisation’s objectives: a deep distrust of the government and its supporters existed. But, by many accounts, that tacit support has now disappeared, and IS’s brutal regime has been uncovered for what it actually is. It is imperative that the disaffection with Islamic State be maintained, as all insurgent groups need the help and support of at least some of the indigenous population to be effective.

That is why it is vitally important that no sectarian violence occurs when towns are liberated from IS, and the undertakings given on this aspect must be delivered.

Equally as important is that there is a long-term plan to ensure the governance of these areas is as inclusive and equitable as possible.

It is in the interests of all the nations currently ranged against IS that these longer-term plans are instigated and that they continue. History clearly tells us that structures set up in the aftermath need to be adequately robust to ensure that any remnants of IS is not allowed to thrive.

Appendage:

mosul-map

Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, is the last stronghold of Islamic State. The threat now is that IS fighters may flee to the desert.

 

Standard