Tag Archives: Theresa May

Britain, Government, Politics

General Election 2017: A Government in crisis

ANALYSIS

BRITAIN-VOTE

The Prime Minister on the steps of 10 Downing Street issues a statement following the verdict of the British electorate after the General Election result. Mrs May insists she will carry on as prime minister, will form a minority government and will seek the help of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party in pursuing her agenda.

Theresa May’s hand is neither strong nor stable. The rapid reappointment of five top Cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Phillip Hammond, is evidence that the Conservative Party retain office but not much in power. A minority Government in the making is the worst possible outcome for a Prime Minister about to enter negotiations with the EU over the Brexit settlement.

An extensive reshuffle had been planned. It did not happen. There was no ceremonial walk down Downing Street.

It is worth noting where we were just before the PM called the snap election.

The Prime Minister had inherited David Cameron’s 12-seat majority. She has now lost that. Expectations that Mrs May was hopeful of more than a 100 seat majority just seven weeks ago after calling the election has spectacularly backfired that has left the Prime Minister embarrassed and in free-fall.

She had a manifesto that had been voted on by a majority, limiting the House of Lords capacity to interfere on manifesto promises.

Now the House of Lords is free to use its legislative block on Tory manifesto promises that have not won majority support from the electorate, such as leaving the single market and the customs union.

The PM needs to pass a Queen’s Speech in the next few days – with the help of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Doing a deal with the DUP has created acute concern among some Conservatives, in particular Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, over climate change denial and gay rights.

The PM had promised to strengthen her hand in negotiation with the EU.

Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now well aware that her hand is weaker not stronger.

We might well be tempted to ask as to what will happen if the first thing being demanded is an exit bill from the EU of tens of billions of pounds as the first procedural step in extricating ourselves from the EU.

Does Mrs May have a mandate to threaten leaving with no deal? If time ran out would Parliament extend the deal? Does the House of Lords feel obliged to pass the Great Repeal Bill?

The PM has immediate problems because of her lack of MPs within her own party.

Many are also furious with a campaign lacking in vision and positivity, but also a strategic mistake.

The May strategy was to alienate “citizens of nowhere” and win over Labour working class heartlands. It failed.

On Thursday, probably a majority of voters were Remain voters, and yet Mrs May targeted her Brexit efforts at a subset of Leave voters.

Tory MPs report a wave of hostility from young voters and Tory voters too over Mrs May’s Brexit plans.

In London, some Tory councillors and Tory aides to ministers voted Lib Dem.

Kensington and Battersea went to Labour. Even Cambridge, a staunchly held Conservative seat since the 1940s, went to Labour.

In Downing Street Mrs May said only the Conservatives “have the legitimacy” to form a government.

And yet she said at almost every election campaign rally that if she lost just six seats she would have lost the election.

She is still in Downing Street – mainly because the Tory backbenchers can think of no better option.

There is a myriad of pitfalls that await her. Any number could catalyse her exit from Downing Street.

One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.

Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.

The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.

It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.

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Britain, Government, Politics

Are the Conservative Party about to form an alliance with the DUP?

GENERAL ELECTION 2017

As Prime Minister Theresa May proceeds with forming a minority Conservative Government, consideration is being given of forming an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. A shock General Election outcome resulted in the Conservative Party losing dozens of parliamentary seats and will now need the support from elsewhere.

At this juncture, it is apt to ask what the DUP will demand to prop up Theresa May.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s hard-line stance against gay marriage and its opposition to a hard Brexit are issues that could be stumbling blocks in any attempt to forge a coalition with the Tories.

Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party has in the past been condemned by former prime minister David Cameron for its long opposition to allowing gay marriage in Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland is the only remaining part of the UK where same-sex marriage is not legal and the DUP has used a controversial veto mechanism to block any change to legislation. Senior figures in the party have called the issue a “red line” for power sharing talks at Stormont.

Former Northern Ireland Health Minister Jim Wells earlier this year claimed he and other members of the assembly would split from the DUP if it relaxed its opposition to same-sex marriage.

He vowed in April: “Peter will not marry Paul in Northern Ireland.”

The DUP’s stance was previously condemned by David Cameron when the prospect of a coalition with the DUP was raised before the 2015 General Election.

The then Prime Minister said he “profoundly disagreed” with the DUP’s policy on gay rights and would “never validate” it.

The DUP’s stance on Brexit could also cause tension.

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, is keen to avoid a hard border with Ireland and has spoken against a “hard Brexit.”

She has said: “No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that’s what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that.

“However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland.”

The DUP manifesto says the party wants a “comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union.”

The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments.

The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.

Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.

Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.

She said last year that she would “not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England”.

 

 

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Britain, Government, Politics, Society

The Conservative Party manifesto leaves us little wiser

GENERAL ELECTION 2017

During this election, Theresa May has conducted such an anodyne campaign that there was an earlier suspicion that she may have felt she could get away with not presenting a manifesto. After all, did she really need too? Riding high in all opinion polls, and with the Labour Party in no proper or fit state to present a genuine challenge, she has been able to glide through on soundbites and rhetoric. Why risk inviting trouble?

In the last few days, that manifesto was delivered. There is little in its pages that really rocks the boat. There is little about Brexit, other than a few broad details we are already aware of. Considering that this snap election was called purely because Mrs May wanted Brexit negotiations to be done her way, the lack of clarity is disappointing if unsurprising.

Whilst not entirely risk-free from voter desertion, the elderly will have good reason to feel hard done by. The triple lock on pensions will no longer be guaranteed, and worryingly for those in England and Wales, a greater proportion of the cost of social care is being passed on to individuals. Many will fear the loss of their home and other capital assets in paying for it.

Aside from that, Mrs May has pledged a ‘mainstream government that would deliver for mainstream Britain’, a slogan which appears accurate for a set of proposals which aren’t too far off centre. It is here where she is likely to succeed in securing victory on June 8, by deliberately moving into the area Labour had to occupy to get Tony Blair into Downing Street (just as Labour under Jeremy Corbyn vacate the middle ground to set up camp on the far left).

The stance taken by the prime minister represents astute politics, and much the same can be said of her handling of the Scottish Government’s request for a second independence referendum. Again, Mrs May plays the ‘now is not the time card’ which kicks another ballot anytime soon into the long grass. No doubt she will try to avoid the matter until after the next Holyrood elections – in the hope that, by that time, the SNP will not be in a position to call a referendum. It’s hard and timely politics at work.

If Mrs May’s advisers can keep her out of trouble, the manifesto should be enough to secure the majority she seeks. By aiming for the middle ground, she has started a process of countering the Tories ‘nasty party’ image. Yet, this manifesto tells us very little about what life will be like under Mrs May, because our future will be determined by Brexit. Until we know what that is, we cannot really judge on whether the Conservative Party has changed for the good.

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