Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, Society

Egypt’s future hangs by a thread…

HOPE

The present situation in Egypt looks grim, both in the wider picture and in the detail.

Tensions in Cairo remain high following the deaths outside the Presidential Guard barracks on Monday, fatalities which included women and children among the dead. The prospect of any government being formed soon looks extremely remote.

Hazem el-Beblawi, the 76-year-old former finance minister, named last week as the interim Prime Minister, has struggled in his task to form a cabinet. That task has been made more difficult due to the issue of arrest warrants by the state prosecutor for senior figures in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Following the removal of Mohammad Morsi, Egypt’s deposed leader, it was suggested that the priority for the interim administration was to form a broad-based coalition government, and one that was reflective of Egypt’s political diversity. President Morsi had not sought allies beyond his immediate supporters, a crucial reason as to why he was removed following millions who had taken to the streets in protest. It can hardly have been helpful, then, that a slew of new arrest warrants was the best way to go about fostering peace and reconciliation. The Brotherhood’s political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, had already refused to join a unity government – on the not so unreasonable grounds that it had led a democratically elected government that was unlawfully removed.

On Tuesday, the British Foreign Secretary’s statement in the House of Commons highlighted some of the difficulties. Mr Hague has urged Egyptians to move swiftly to hold free and fair elections, as well as working towards openness, democracy and economic reform. Whilst the sound-bites are sensible, they must ring pretty hollow to those Egyptians who thought they already had a freely elected government following the election of Mr Morsi 12-months ago.

Mr Hague also skirted around the uncomfortable fact that the army had seized power and the refusal by some, notably the United States, in referring to the takeover as a coup. The feeling that the Western world promotes and lauds democracy elsewhere, until it produces something they don’t want, will only have been reinforced with what is happening in Egypt.

In the short-to-medium term at least the situation in Egypt seems likely to remain highly problematic. In the unlikely event that all parties and vested interest groups can be persuaded to take part in amending the constitution, approving it in a government-run referendum will undoubtedly leave some to question the authority of any newly formed government – built as it will on the back of an army takeover.

Over the past week, Egypt’s democracy has not been strengthened. Following the carnage on Monday, descent into a Syria-style bloody civil war seemed inevitable. But whilst the confrontation at the Presidential Guard barracks, in which more than 50 people died and dozens of others were injured, it also seemed to shock all sides into stepping back from the brink. It is too soon to be abandoning hope.

Rather than issuing new arrest warrants, the authorities should be exploiting this pause to offer some kind of peace reconciliation – for example, by starting to release detainees.

Egypt’s compelling sense of national identity is a permanent and immovable asset. Unlike many states in the region, it has a common history going back millennia; it has borders that are well defined, and there are no serious challenges from ethnic minority groups. Egypt’s differences are invariably religious and political which, though it doesn’t make them any less sharp, does still leave Egypt’s national identity intact. The interim administration as well as any new government needs to capitalise on this and should provide a roadmap in helping Egypt to complete its revolution.

However untidy Egyptian society has become of late, the taste that many in Egypt have developed over the past two-and-a-half years for freedom and democracy can be a force for good as well as ill. As we have seen it veered all too easily when Mr Morsi was deposed a week ago, into a rule by a discontented mob. Such proof of political engagement, however, could also deter the military from the excesses to which it is prone.

There are slivers of hope for Egypt’s future, but hope is all that is currently on offer.

Standard
Banking, Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government, United States

Libor handed over to the Americans…

BLOW FOR THE CITY OF LONDON

The owner of the New York stock exchange has been handed responsibility for setting controversial LIBOR interest rates in a move slammed by MPs as a ‘tremendous blow’ to the City of London.

Earlier this week the Treasury confirmed that the key role will pass from lobby group the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) to transatlantic NYSE Euronext from early next year.

The process, which will still take place in London, will be overseen by City watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

But while FCA head Martin Wheatley hailed this as ‘an important step in enhancing the integrity of LIBOR’, John Mann, a member of the Treasury Select Committee, blasted the decision.

The Labour MP said it was further evidence that British banks are being unfairly singled out for rigging LIBOR interest rates – while, he says, their US counterparts escape punishment.

He said:

… This is a tremendous blow to the prestige of the City of London and sends out the message that you can’t trust the British.

… What the Americans have been doing is selectively picking out British banks that have done wrong and selectively ignoring the same scandals that have been committed by their own banks… The Chancellor has failed to stick up for the City. French and Germans will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of stealing other financial markets.

LIBOR – The London Interbank Offered Rate – is a key benchmark rate which is used to set mortgages for millions of homeowners and is linked to $300 trillion of financial contracts around the world.

The BBA was criticised for being asleep on the job as a number of banks, including Barclays, the Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, routinely rigged rates under its nose.

This culminated in huge fines for these banks and the decision by an independent review headed by Mr Wheatley to strip the BBA of its role.

The decision to award the contract to the New York Stock Exchange-owner followed a bidding war orchestrated by an independent committee, headed by former journalist Baroness Hogg – now a senior independent director at the Treasury. NYSE Euronext, which owns the pan-European Euronext market and will pay £1 for BBA Libor Ltd’s assets, said it is ‘uniquely placed’ to restore the international credibility of LIBOR. BBA has refused to reveal how many of its employees work on LIBOR.

Failed bidders are understood to include financial information provider Thomson Reuters, which has calculated LIBOR on behalf of the BBA since 2005.

libor

COMMENT

The British Bankers’ Association, a wildly discredited organisation given its mishandling of LIBOR, the interest rate that sets the price for trillions of dollars of transactions across the world, has much to answer for. Its sclerotic behaviour under the BBA’s previous leadership failed to respond with any willpower to criticisms made by the Federal Reserve. Had it done so, it is possible that the LIBOR scandal – which wiped out the top management at Barclays – might never have happened.

Not that the Bank of England has totally clean hands in any of this. It may have had no direct responsibility for keeping Britain’s markets honest, but it can be accused of being lackadaisical in making sure the BBA acted on Fed criticisms and forced through reforms designed to erect Chinese walls between LIBOR setters and traders so that opportunities for rigging were stamped out.

Paradoxically, the Libor business that NYSE Euronext will inherit has shrunk dramatically. Post the Great Recession the LIBOR market has been in deep slumber because banks are so distrusting of each other, especially in the eurozone.

It’s possible that among the reasons for awarding the LIBOR contracts to NYSE Euronext rather than the London Stock Exchange is that London’s bid came in association with Thomson Reuters, the financial institution which set the reference rate under the old broken regime.

Thomson Reuters’ independence has been challenged recently by the New York State Attorney Eric Schneiderman who is critical of an arrangement under which premium customers get privileged access – a two second advantage – to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. At a time when the City is under siege from Brussels over a variety of issues, it does seem bizarre that we should allow an interest rate market that grew in London in the 1970s, to escape US tax measures, to head back across the Atlantic.

And while several European banks, including Barclays, RBS and UBS, have paid a heavy price from US regulators for LIBOR manipulation, so far there has not been a single successful prosecution or settlement with an American bank. That in itself should raise many previously unanswered curious questions, as LIBOR setting now moves to the United States.

Standard
Government, Scotland, Society

Police stations in Scotland face threat of closure to save £190m…

POLICE BUDGET CUTS

POLICE station offices across Scotland face closure or reduced opening hours following a major national review.

Victims of crime may have to report to police officers in libraries or housing association offices if a cost-cutting strategy by Police Scotland is agreed.

Some police in rural areas already speak to members of the public in the officers’ own homes because of a lack of police buildings.

Police Scotland needs to cut its budget by £190 million over the next two years as a result of the unification of regional forces which took place on April 1.

The single national force is reviewing its office buildings ‘in light of the challenging budget’, according to a letter sent by Police Scotland to politicians.

Consideration will now be given to cutting the force’s costs by sharing space with councils, housing associations and other public agencies.

Police Scotland is also assessing the traffic warden service, which could see parking enforcement transferred to the control of councils. This would allow local authorities to keep parking fines which at present are transferred to the UK Treasury.

Lib Dem justice spokesman, Alison McInnes, responding to the police review, said:

… In many communities the local (police) station is the most visible police presence and the easiest way for people to access justice.

… For people in rural areas in particular the prospect of reduced opening hours of public counters will be a real concern. Coming so soon after the SNP’s court closures this would come as another blow to locally delivered justice in Scotland.

South of the Border, Scotland Yard has plans to move its officers into post offices and supermarkets as part of a £500 million budget cutting programme.

Police Scotland already has officers in civic centres and other community buildings, such as Drumbrae Library in Edinburgh, where a safer neighbourhood team is based. Others could be moved into libraries and housing associations to make officers more visible and accessible.

Police Scotland’s letter to MPs, MSPs and councillors states:

… Recent experience has shown there is a decrease in the volume of visitors who actually attend at public counters at police stations.

… Taken in the context of an increasingly challenging financial climate and the need to make best use of all our staff, it is now prudent to examine this aspect of service delivery to the public.

Police Scotland has guaranteed a consultation to give the public a say when the review is published.

Taken together, the review of the 230 police front counters (with some facing closure) along with a review of the traffic warden service, are expected to be the first in a huge overhaul of the police force in Scotland.

Police Scotland is reviewing its policing operations across the service to deliver efficiencies. By doing so it aims to have the right structures in place to deliver local priorities. It is understood that any significant changes will be subject to local engagement.

The letter from Police Scotland concludes:

… Policing continues to face unprecedented financial challenges, with a requirement to find savings and provide best value for public services.

Standard