Europe, Government, Military, National Security, NATO, Russia, Society, United States

Russia announces its intention of bolstering its nuclear arsenal in 2015…

AN EMERGING NEW COLD WAR

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has pledged to add more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles to Russia’s nuclear arsenal in 2015, sending a clear warning message to NATO amid escalating tensions with the West.

Mr Putin made the announcement during his opening address at the Army-2015 Expo, an international military forum based near Moscow.

Mr Putin said that ‘more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems’ would be added to Russia’s nuclear arsenal this year.

The Army-2015 fair is held to show off and parade the latest developments in Russian military hardware, and Mr Putin promised his generals an array of other new weapons – including the advanced Armata tanks that were shown off at a Red Square ceremony last month.

The president also announced that the military was beginning testing a new system of long-range early warning radar ‘to monitor in the western direction’.

Few countries in the world are known to possess land-based missiles capable of crossing continents. The US operates 450 Minuteman missiles across three bases, while Russia’s existing arsenal is believed to be slightly greater. Russia’s pending upgrade will alarm the West as stipulations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are specifically aimed at reducing arsenals.

ICBMs are needed to deliver nuclear warheads over long distances, and some are capable of delivering more than one. Though Russia is less than open about its military stockpiles, it is thought to possess more than 8,000 warheads in total.

Mr Putin’s announcement, which included a general pledge to continue Russia’s ‘massive’ military rearmament programme, comes amid the worst tensions between the West and Russia in decades.

Russian defence ministry official General Yuri Yakubov has said that US proposals to bolster an allied army on Polish soil would be ‘the most aggressive step by the Pentagon and NATO since the Cold War’.

He said: ‘Russia will have no option but to build up its forces and resources on the Western strategic front.’


18 June, 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia would have to defend itself if threatened, adding that NATO is ‘coming to its borders’.

At a meeting outside of Moscow with Sauli Niinisto, his Finnish counterpart, Mr Putin said: ‘If someone puts some of our territories under threat that means we will have to direct our armed forces and modern strike power at those territories, from where the threat emanates.’

After being asked about Moscow and NATO both boosting their firepower in the region, Mr Putin said: ‘As soon as some threat comes from an adjoining state, Russia must react appropriately and carry out its defence policy in such a way as to neutralise a threat against it… It’s NATO that is coming to our borders and not us moving somewhere.’

But he added that observers should not ‘blow anything out of proportion’ with regard to the perceived threat from NATO.’

‘Of course we will analyse everything, follow this carefully. So far I don’t see anything that would force us to worry especially.’

The earlier announcement by Mr Putin that Russia will boost its nuclear arsenal by more than 40 intercontinental missiles this year was slammed by NATO as ‘sabre-rattling’.

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Defence, Government, National Security, NATO, Politics, Society

Enlarging NATO will be problematic. But Poland wants new members…

NATO

At a conference in the Polish city of Wroclaw on 12 June, the Polish defence minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, said that Macedonia and Montenegro should be invited to join NATO at next year’s summit in Warsaw. The two former Yugoslav nations want to join the 28-country military alliance, but any move to do so could increase already high-tensions between the Western alliance and Russia.

Any invitation, however, is likely to draw scorn from Moscow. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has opposed any expansion of NATO that includes the former communist nations in eastern and southeast Europe, claiming that it is a purposefully provocative move. Russia’s foreign minister has repeatedly warned against NATO approaching Bosnia, Macedonia and Montenegro, saying that NATO allowing those countries to join would be solely aimed at undermining Russia.

This type of disagreement – asking countries to choose allegiance to either the West or East – was the ideological barrier that fuelled the Cold War for more than 40 years and lies at the heart of the current conflict in eastern Ukraine. Some believe that the war in the contested region of Donbas, Ukraine, is deliberately designed to stop the country from being eligible for NATO selection, as the alliance does not typically allow nations to join while a conflict remains unresolved. Experts say this tactic, known as a ‘frozen conflict’, was used in the 2008 war in Georgia.

In 1999, former communist countries began joining NATO en masse, including the former Soviet states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania who all joined in 2004. In the Balkan region, Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Slovenia and Romania are members of the alliance.

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Britain, Europe, Foreign Affairs, Government, NATO, Politics, Society, United States

Britain’s shrinking influence on the global stage…

BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY

SOME two decades ago the British foreign secretary, Douglas Herd, decreed that Britain should aim to ‘punch above its weight in the world’. Today the country seems hesitant, reluctant even, to enter the ring. Some, such as a recently retired British NATO chief, have even complained that the prime minister, David Cameron, has become a ‘foreign-policy irrelevance’. America continues to despair of Britain’s shrinking armed forces and has openly criticised Britain’s ‘constant accommodation’ of China. Allies are worried, and so they should be given world events as they are. For example, consider Britain’s non-adoptive approach over events between Russia and Ukraine.

Yet, despite the world’s tensions, the country’s politicians, who are fighting to win a general election on May 7th, appear unbothered by those expressing concern. That is a mistake. Britain’s diminishing global clout and influence has become a big problem, both for the country and the world.

A powerful force in relative decline, Britain’s propensity is to veer between hubristic intervention abroad and anxious introspection at home. Following Tony Blair’s expeditionary misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, conflicts which cost us heavily, Britain’s coalition government was always going to shun grand schemes. Now, it would seem, is that our ruling politicians are not so much cautious, but apathetic, ineffective and fickle.

The prime minister did make a brave and passionate case for armed intervention and assistance in toppling the Libyan regime of Muammar Qaddafi. But like so many other examples concerning foreign intervention he did not reckon for the day after and Libya is now in a state of internecine civil war. He led America to believe that Britain would support it in bombing raids over Syria, only to find that his parliamentary vote was bungled by strong political opposition. Britain may have been one of the moving forces behind the workings of the 1994 Budapest memorandum, which ostensibly guaranteed Ukraine’s security when it gave up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, but the prime minister has been almost absent in dealing with Russian revanchist aggression against it. Last year, too, as host of a NATO summit in Wales, David Cameron urged the alliance’s members to pledge at least 2% of their GDP to defence. Just months later, a fiscally straightened Britain intent on deficit reduction at all costs looks poised even to break its own rule.

David Cameron’s pledge of an in-out referendum on Europe if he wins the election has given the impression of Britain being semi-detached. Rather than counteracting that position through vigorous diplomacy, the prime minister has reinforced it. In European Union summits, for instance, he has often been underprepared and zealously overambitious. His rather humiliating and embarrassing attempt to block Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming EU president of the Commission left him with only Hungary for company as a dissenting voice. Mr Cameron’s insistence of pulling the Conservatives out of the EU’s main centre-right political group has had the unintended effect of cutting Britain out of vital discussions with other centre-right leaders, such as Angela Merkel of Germany.

And what of Labour? Ed Miliband, the party’s leader, may well be pro-European, but he has no more connection of American foreign policy than Mr Cameron does. He apologises for Labour’s interventionist history so strenuously and unreservedly that he leaves little or no room for liberal intervention. And, of course, differing arguments abound from all political parties over the submarine-based nuclear-missile system that is seen by the Conservative Party as a pillar of Britain’s relations with America and NATO – an argument that swings to total rejection when it comes to the Scottish Nationalist Party, a position which rankles right-wing politicians as the SNP could end up propping-up a potential Labour minority government through confidence and supply motions.

Those who defend the prime minister say that Britons are war weary and impoverished. What do they say, then, of Mrs Merkel and François Hollande, the French president, who have shown that you can have an active foreign policy while dealing with an economic crisis?

Liberal values and promoting international co-operation require defending, especially so just now. New emerging powers, particularly China, want a far bigger say in how the world works. By seizing Crimea at will, and invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has challenged norms of behaviour that were established after the Versailles Treaty and Second World War. If Britain now refuses to stand up for its values, it will inherit and become part of a world that will be less to its liking.

Britain is still well placed to make a difference. With a great diplomatic tradition, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and reasonably strong ties to Europe and America, Britain ought to be pushing hard to extend open trade, human rights and international law as well as providing impetus towards new agendas against crime, terrorism and climate change.

If Britain is to make its voice heard, it needs to bulk up its diplomacy and armed forces. Pledging to spend 2% of GDP on defence may seem arbitrary but it is a crucial sign to America and other countries that Britain is prepared to pull its weight in exchange for NATO’s guarantee of joint security. This should make more sense than the obscure commitment to spend a lavish amount of 0.7% of GDP on foreign aid.

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