Government, Middle East, Politics, Russia, Syria, United Nations, United States

Calming the violence in Syria…

Intro: The Geneva talks may help to calm the bloodshed in Syria, but there are other practical measures that can be taken

The Syrian peace talks which began this week in Switzerland began dramatically. The original invitation for Iran to join the talks was quickly reversed and the first significant and genuine attempt by the US and Russia to bring an end to the civil war that is tearing the country apart was made. If these efforts cannot be sustained, and many suspect they can’t, it will still be important for definitive steps to be taken into de-escalating the conflict. Such terrible losses and suffering on the Syrian people should not be understated.

The fact that the meeting in Geneva did take place really does matter. For the first time since the conflict began, the government and a faction of the opposition were brought together. This can only be an advance on what has happened between the two sides that have been driven by a need to kill each other. What is more, the energy which Washington and Moscow put into staging the talks is the clearest sign yet of a genuine desire to bring the conflict to an end. When the US and Europe saw such a meeting as a precursor to the inevitable demise of Bashar al-Assad some 18 months ago, the same supposition was not necessarily true. The military balance of power on the ground was such that government forces were never likely to suffer total defeat without a full-scale foreign intervention. That option disappeared when the US and Britain abandoned plans for a military strike last September, after a chemical gas attack was used on civilians in Damascus. Since then, a recipe for continuing the war has been the uncompromising demands for Assad’s surrender.

Practical measures could be taken to calm the violence. Local ceasefires do already exist and could be expanded, with UN observers monitoring on the ground ready and able to mediate on the need for a longer-term solution. Without that, hatred and distrust between the two sides will ensure that ceasefires have a short life-span. UN observers are also needed to help coordinate relief convoys to rebel-held enclaves, where people are starving and in dire need of humanitarian assistance and aid. The same applies to prisoner swaps.

Given that the Iranian and Saudi governments are crucial players on opposing sides of the conflict, it is unfortunate that Iran has been absent from this week’s talks. To have one and not the other present has undermined the credibility of the negotiations. The open willingness of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to see an end to the fighting without victory for the rebels – of whom they are the main financial and military supporters – must be tested.

A reduction in violence might also be achieved by pressuring Turkey to clamp down on jihadi fighters crossing its 500-mile-long border with Syria. Turkey denies any acquiescence, but all the evidence suggests that it has backed rebels of every persuasion.

The gravest challenge in setting up the Geneva conference has underlined just how difficult it will be in the future to get a multitude of players with differing interests, inside and outside of Syria, to agree to anything. But a negotiated peace is the only option in bringing to an end the slaughter in a conflict that is now almost into its fourth year. However far away a solution may seem to be all parties concerned have a duty in bringing the bloodshed and suffering in Syria to an end.

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Foreign Affairs, Government, Politics, Syria, United Nations

Solving the Syrian peace conundrum will be a struggle…

GENEVA PEACE TALKS

It will be a struggle, if not an impossible conundrum, to bring together all the interested parties in Syria’s civil war around the same negotiating table. With peace talks in Geneva due to start tomorrow consider the obstacles to these talks if Iran is present. The Syrian opposition would likely walk out, closely followed by Saudi Arabia. But shun Iran, and the outside power with the greatest influence on events will be freed from any obligation to accept whatever agreement is reached.

It remains uncertain whether all the parties with a vested interest will actually attend the summit. Amid the diplomatic manoeuvring, though, some central and underlying points are worth restating.

Common humanity dictates that all those countries with an interest should, on the face of it, be able to find points of agreement. This should be possible regardless of how their interests differ. For instance, who would deny the need for humanitarian aid to reach the areas sealed off by the regime of Bashar al-Assad? Or, what of his use of barrel bombs – devastating weapons that are packed with nails, petroleum and high explosives.

For Syria’s opposition there is a deeply uncomfortable truth it must accept and come to terms with. Whilst many will not like it, Iran will have to be party to any settlement that is reached. Tehran has sent thousands of troops from its Revolutionary Guard to fight in support of Assad. The Syrian dictator is clearly a leader being kept in power with Iranian backing. Iran’s signature will be needed if any agreement is to work.

All the parties concerned must be aware of the paradox that has stemmed from Assad’s narrative that Syria’s civil war has become a contest between his regime and al-Qaeda, and that Assad himself is the lesser of two evils. The enigma is that Assad has actively encouraged extremists to win influence within the opposition, precisely to confront us with this very choice. That should expose Assad’s derisive cynicism as much as he has become known for his cold-blooded brutality.

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