NATO/RUSSIA

Photograph taken over Baltic airspace by RAF Typhoon pilots, intercepting Russian Mikoyan MiG-31 aircraft on 24 July 2015 during a NATO patrol.

AMID a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia, many of the world’s powers have reported a surge in airspace violations where aircraft are scrambled to intercept foreign warplanes. No more so than within NATO where members were forced to conduct more than 500 scrambles over Europe in 2014 – a fourfold increase on the previous year.

Nearly 85% of these NATO scrambles were to intercept Russian aircraft. This year alone, there have been more than 300 scrambles to date. Not since the end of the cold war has the West witnessed such high numbers.

Russia has also alleged that NATO sorties near its borders more than doubled last year. NATO responded by calling the claim ‘deliberately vague’.

Despite the increase in interceptions, NATO will be halving the number of aircraft used in its Baltic air-policing mission later this year. Several incidents reveal there is a risk of escalation because of the sheer volume of incidents arising.

A scramble doesn’t necessarily imply a breach of sovereign airspace or military aviation rules. In most cases, it was deemed there had been no breach. During 2014, there were 10 incursions by Russian aircraft into airspace belonging to NATO members. Eight of these were over islands belonging to Estonia, and the others were into Norwegian and Polish airspace in March and April respectively (and both lasted seconds).

Russian aircraft did briefly enter airspace belonging to Finland, which is not a NATO member, on 26 June. Sweden has reported nine incursions into its airspace so far this year, with the country’s airspace being breached 12 times in 2014.

It is difficult to establish exactly what motivates Russia or to know for certain if these events were provocations, a test of alertness or other factors.

But what isn’t in doubt is the increase in Russian activity. In comparison with current levels of activity, there were, for example, only seven Russian incursions into Estonian airspace between 2006 and 2013.

Russian manoeuvres have also included several more provocative, albeit isolated, incidents. These have included aircraft flying several times over military ships and Russian bombers taking unconventional paths in proximity to US and British airspace. According to Russia, though, this has all been driven by an increase in the activities of ‘NATO countries and their partners’ that have freely encroached on its airspace.

Russia insists that its air force flights, which consist mostly of training sorties in international airspace, needed to be seen within the context of a ‘drastic increase in the activity of foreign reconnaissance and combat planes near Russian borders’.

Russia insists that NATO carried out more than 3,000 tactical aviation sorties near Russian borders in 2014, more than double the previous year. NATO patrols over Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia increased 3.5 times.

However, a spokesperson at NATO’s Supreme HQ Allied Powers Europe, said that Russia is regularly using disinformation and propaganda to confuse the public regarding current events. The source acknowledged: ‘Scrambles are launched in response to Russian activity. The sole aim is to preserve the integrity of NATO European airspace and to safeguard NATO nations from air attacks.’ Also acknowledged was the fact that NATO had increased the numbers of surveillance flights in recent months, but that those flights had remained ‘hundreds of kilometres from Russia’s borders’.

Despite the increasing frequency of interceptions with Russian aircrafts, NATO will be scaling back the number of the Baltic patrolling mission’s aircraft to eight this autumn, from 16. Prior to events in Ukraine, the patrolling and surveillance mission consisted of four aircraft. NATO insists the reduction was appropriate to the scale of the task.

It is also important to understand that there are mitigating factors at play in the surge of airspace incursions. National aviation boundaries are tight in Eastern Europe, and the Ukraine conflict has heightened political and military sensitivities.

The single biggest reason for the huge increase in the number of scrambles is because Russian aircraft often do not abide by international conventions. Russian military aircraft often keep their transponders switched off and, as a result, cannot be identified by air traffic controllers. The practice is dangerous and could cause a mid-air collision. The Russian military does not share their flight plans, either.

In an analysis by the European Leadership Network (ELN) of 66 incidents, one of the three ‘high risk’ incidents recorded between March 2014 and March 2015 involved a near-collision between a Scandinavian airline 737 with 132 passengers taking off from Copenhagen and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft. This was due to the latter not broadcasting its position or squawking a code from its transponder.

The Russian government said: ‘Russian pilots are training under strict orders to follow the requirements of international and national laws and rules. The flights take place over uninhabited areas, mostly open seas, without violating the state borders. Russian aircraft are constantly shadowed by NATO fighters. Russia respects all international and national restrictions imposed on such activities, and will do so in the future.’