Category Archives: Russia

European Union, NATO, Russia, Turkey, United States

Russia and Turkey’s rapprochement

RUSSIA/TURKEY

Intro: For Russia, this is an opportunity to drive a hard wedge between Turkey, NATO and the EU

The unfolding diplomatic rapprochement between Russia and Turkey is likely to become a significant challenge for the European Union and NATO. For centuries now, these two countries have remained implacably opposed to each other. Efforts just a decade ago to forge a strategic partnership were curtailed by the civil war that has been raging in Syria. With Moscow clearly propping up Bashar al-Assad, Ankara either stayed out or implicitly supported his enemies. In more recent times, relations hit another low point last November when Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber near the Syrian border for violating Turkey’s airspace. Russia imposed sanctions and the damage to relations between the two countries seemed irreparable.

But even before events last month in which an attempted military coup failed, President Erdogan had decided he could no longer afford a cold war of attrition and stalemate with Moscow and began making overtures with the Kremlin. The putsch appears to have expedited matters: yesterday Mr Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin to agree the normalising of relations. This will send shock waves through the EU at a time of unprecedented uncertainty.

For Russia, this is an opportunity to drive a hard wedge between Turkey, NATO and the EU and will help to abate Russian anger over the jet incident. President Putin must recognise in Mr Erdogan a leader cut from the same cloth – a democratically elected nationalist who has been behaving more like a despot.

Mr Erdogan’s ruthless purge of opponents after the thwarted coup has alarmed EU leaders who had encouraged Ankara to believe it could join the European Union at some future point and had pledged to introduce visa-free access for Turkish travellers to the Schengen area. No date, however, has ever been set or given for either and several EU countries have made it abundantly clear they would veto Turkey’s accession citing its human rights record, loss of press freedom and other economic shortcomings. Angela Merkel of Germany has been desperate to keep both options open in order to stop Turkey reneging on a deal to keep Syrian refugees from crossing into Europe.

But Mr Erdogan seems to have been cooling towards Europe, none of whose leaders have been to Ankara since the failed coup. Turkey’s leader is seeking alliances elsewhere. Improving relations between Russia and Turkey will have significant implications both for policy on Syria and for NATO itself. The US nuclear base at Incirlik is a key part of western defences, but, if Turkey were to leave its loss would be a serious blow to the organisation.

These developments will be concerning for European leaders. But for the Russian president this is a chance to cause fresh consternation in the capitals of Europe and in Washington. Mr Putin seems certain to grab a gift horse that couldn’t have come at a better time for his own interests.

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Russia, Syria, United Nations, United States

Aleppo is on the brink of annihilation…

SYRIA

Intro: The Syrian government has demonstrated time and again how little it cares for international humanitarian laws

Aleppo is now more at a critical juncture that it has ever been since the start of Syria’s internecine civil war five years ago. Aleppo’s worsening situation comes at a bad moment when western attention has been turned sharply on terrorism in Europe and the impending US presidential election. Syria, however, is now demanding immediate attention too. What has been happening recently in Aleppo could be a decisive turning point in the conflict; any diplomatic hopes of whatever remain in negotiating a solution is fast deteriorating. An estimated 200,000 to 300,000 people are trapped in Aleppo’s eastern neighbourhoods, which are now entirely surrounded by Syrian government forces of Bashar al-Assad.  These troops are being assisted in their offensive by Russian air power and Iranian-controlled militias. Alarmingly, no food, no medical aid, nor any humanitarian assistance has been able to reach the population of Aleppo’s rebel-held territory for several weeks, because of the magnitude and intensity of the ongoing military onslaught.

Aleppo is of historical significance. It was once Syria’s second largest city, and it has become one of the key symbols of rebel resistance to the Assad regime since 2012. It has been a long-held objective of government forces to crush and obliterate Aleppo, and, if nothing is done to stop Assad’s forces advancing such a disaster seems imminent. That would not just be a defeat for the rebels, many of whom which have received western support, but perhaps an irreversible defeat for the uprising. Aleppo is staring into the abyss with the prospect of a new, humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions unfurling in Syria.

Aleppo

Map depicting Aleppo in Syria and surrounding countries.

With Aleppo encircled, the tragedy is being exasperated following the tightening of the knot in recent days by government forces whose aim has been to starve or empty it. Aleppo has been so ruthlessly shelled and bombed that it has become an inferno for those desperate people struggling among the ruins. There are hardly any doctors left in the city, and the last remaining hospital has been destroyed. UN agencies say food stocks are barely sufficient to last for more than three weeks.

The Syrian government and its Russian allies have resorted to a tactic of siege and starvation that has been used previously in Syria, but they are now doing it on a much larger and openly deliberate and provocative way. Their announcement of “humanitarian corridors” for civilians and rebels who would want to flee the area must be exposed as a cynical ruse. No one should be surprised that Aleppo’s population has not rushed towards these exit corridors, which have not in any case materialised on the ground. The Syrian government has demonstrated time and again how little it cares for international humanitarian laws. Assad’s machine of repression makes no distinction whatsoever between armed combatants and civilians. Tens of thousands of civilians have died while being held in detention centres. The announcement by Syrian and Russian officials without consulting or even warning UN agencies in advance is implicit proof that they want no external witnesses to their misdeeds.

Aleppo is on the brink of annihilation and the siege must be urgently lifted. International pressure is void of any credibility and its responses to a dire and stricken situation has been pitifully pathetic. It must put proper pressure on Russia to force Syrian troops to retreat, so that lives can be saved. The fate of Aleppo’s inhabitants, however, may now depend to a large degree on how global public opinion can now be mobilised. Saving Aleppo from utter destruction is not only a humanitarian imperative, but also central to any thin chance of a settlement in Syria ever being salvaged.

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European Union, Iran, NATO, Russia, United Nations, United States

Moscow says the United States should drop its European Missile Shield…

EUROPEAN MISSILE SHIELD

Russia has urged the United States to scrap plans to station parts of its European missile shield system now that Iran has reached agreement with world powers to limit its nuclear program.

Moscow has long opposed the plan, which it sees as a threat to its nuclear deterrence, and has pledged to retaliate if the missile shield in Europe goes ahead. Washington has previously assured Moscow the shield was meant as a protection from ‘rogue’ states like Iran, and not directed against Russia.

Since the agreement in July was made, under which Tehran has agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for an easing of UN, US and EU sanctions, Moscow has stepped up its rhetoric against the missile shield.

The latest diplomatic spat threatens to further worsen relations between Moscow and Washington, now at their lowest point since the cold war because of the conflict in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said in the last few days that Barack Obama ‘was not telling the truth’ in comments he made in 2009 linking the need for a missile shield to what the president called the ‘real threat’ from Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile activity.

At the time of making those comments, Mr Obama said: ‘As long as the threat from Iran persists, we will go forward with a missile defence system that is cost-effective and proven. If the Iranian threat is eliminated, we will have a stronger basis for security, and the driving force for missile defence construction in Europe will be removed.’

Moscow insists those comments mean that with the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, Washington should now walk away from the missile shield plan.

However, sceptics in America (and elsewhere) will argue that even if the agreement was fully implemented it did not annul the threat from Iranian ballistic missiles that Mr Obama referred to back in 2009. Under the July deal, UN sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missiles program will stay in place for eight years.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Government, said: ‘As long as Iran goes on developing and deploying ballistic missiles, the U.S. together with its allies and partners will be working to ensure protection from this threat, including through deploying the NATO missile shield system.’

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has ruled out the possibility of using mid-range ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads to target Europe. Mr Ryabkov said: ‘So I conclude that the U.S. administration is artificially stitching arguments together behind a decision to continue and increase the pace of creating the European missile shield that was in fact taken for different reasons.’

If the shield goes ahead, Russia has said it would retaliate, including by deploying short-range Iskander ballistic missiles in its enclave of Kaliningrad, on the border with NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

Mr Ryabkov also said Russia and Iran had agreed on two bilateral deals as part of implementing the wider nuclear agreement, and were now discussing the details.

He said Russia would take in some 8 tonnes of low-enriched uranium from Iran in exchange for supplies of natural uranium. Moscow and Tehran would also produce medical isotopes at Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility.

NATO is constructing a missile defence system in the Mediterranean Sea and in the territories of several European member states.

NATO is constructing a missile defence system in the Mediterranean Sea and in the territories of several European member states.

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