Category Archives: Russia

Government, Military, NATO, Russia

A policy brief warns that NATO and Russia are preparing for conflict…

NATO/RUSSIA

A London-based global security think tank has published a policy brief warning that NATO and Russia appear to be preparing to go to war with one another. The European Leadership Network (ELN) warns that military exercises by Russia and NATO have become part of a dangerous ‘action-reaction cycle’ that could accidentally elevate the chance of war.

The report argues, that: ‘Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia… Both the NATO and Russian exercises show that each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely (have) war plans in mind. Whilst spokespeople may maintain that these operations are targeted against hypothetical opponents, the nature and scale of them indicate otherwise.’

The policy brief says that while each side insists their exercises are defensive, the political fallout between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis has triggered a reactive cycle on either side in terms of military exercises. It suggests that each side is aiming to strengthen deterrence by ‘flexing their military might’, causing the other side to interpret this as provocation and responding with yet more military manoeuvres.

The brief uses two cases to illustrate its point. One is Russia’s snap exercise in March involving some 80,000 military personnel and the other is NATO’s Allied Shield exercise in June in which 15,000 personnel from 19 member states and three partner states took part. The report reads:

‘The focus of the exercises is on what each side sees as its most exposed areas, with NATO concentrating on the Baltic States and Poland whilst Russia is focusing primarily on the Arctic and High North, Kaliningrad, occupied Crimea, and its border areas with NATO members Estonia and Latvia.’

Russia has become increasingly proactive of late and has started calling all branches of its military to take part in active drills, with a strong focus on its Arctic territories and on the Baltic region. In February Baltic defence officials and experts expressed concern that Russia may be deliberately raising the alert level in Europe with its snap drills – by paving the way for an eventual attack on a Baltic capital.

The ELN report highlights repeatedly that NATO’s exercises are significantly smaller than Russia’s, although it points out  that this may be largely due to limited capability rather than a decision not to match Russia, whose entire force is permanently under one command (as opposed to the armed forces of NATO). The report also notes that Russia’s use of conscription allows it to quickly summon greater numbers of troops which ‘the predominantly professional armed forces of NATO countries simply cannot match.’

The authors do not suggest that the leadership of either side has made a decision to go to war or that a military conflict is inevitable, but says the changed profile of exercises is a fact and does play a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe.

Russia will have conducted more than 4000 exercises for 2015, which is over 10-times more than what NATO has planned for over the year. Indicative, too, is that Russia has incorporated nuclear and nuclear capable forces in its recent exercises.

Currently, Russia is hosting a series of international military games. This involves servicemen using its training courses to compete in tank and jet manoeuvres. Earlier this week, the Russian Defence Ministry called on 500 of its servicemen to practice amphibious assault in the Baltic.

NATO, meanwhile, is currently preparing for its Trident Juncture exercise which is set to engage over 36,000 troops in Spain, Portugal and Italy between October and November. NATO has been keen to highlight that it had announced this exercise ‘one year in advance’ and has invited international monitors to observe it through the OSCE.

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Canada, Climate Change, Environment, Russia, United Nations, United States

Russia renews its claim on vast amounts of Arctic territory…

RUSSIA AND THE ARCTIC

In an application to the United Nations, Russia has renewed its claim on 436,000 square miles of Arctic territory. Russia’s previous claim was rejected in 2002 by a UN commission on the grounds of insufficient evidence.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry now says it has ‘ample scientific data collected in years of scientific research.’ The area which Russia claims extends 350 nautical miles from beyond its shoreline.

The move is likely to be diplomatically fraught as it seems certain to provoke the ire of other Arctic-bordering nations. The United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark also have territorial ambitions in the Arctic region and have rejected Russian claims to the area, which is thought to hold up to a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves.

Reacting to Russia’s claim The Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade & Development, said: ‘All Arctic Ocean coastal states are committed to the orderly resolution of any overlaps of continental shelf and reaffirmed this commitment in the Ilulissat Declaration in May 2008.’

The declaration referred to by Canada was enacted to block any new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean, and contains an additional pledge and caveat for ‘the orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims.’

There have been increasing rivalries in the region, exacerbated by climate change, as melting northern ice caps have allowed more opportunities for nations to explore and expand in contested areas.

These renewed territorial claims come in the midst of what has been described as the worst state of relations between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, particularly with the ongoing conflict and tensions in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist rebels and the pro-European Ukrainian government. NATO has openly accused Russia of actively sending troops to support the rebels.

Russia’s expansionist ambitions in the north are not new. In 2007, a Russian submarine dropped a canister containing a Russian flag on the ocean bed of the North Pole in what appeared to have been a provocative publicity stunt to rile its Arctic neighbours.

  • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the treaty that delimits continental shelf claims, allows countries to claim an exclusive economic zone up to 200 miles from their coastline or as far as their land territory naturally extends from shore beneath the sea.
  • Russia is seeking to demonstrate that two underwater features, the Lomonosov Ridge and the Mendeleev ridge, are natural geological extensions of the Russian continental shelf.
  • Vladimir Putin has described the Arctic as a region of Russian “special interest,” and has expanded Russia’s military presence in the high north to secure its claims in the region.
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Military, NATO, Russia

NATO intercepts of Russian aircraft have significantly increased…

NATO/RUSSIA

Photograph taken over Baltic airspace by RAF Typhoon pilots, intercepting Russian Mikoyan MiG-31 aircraft on 24 July 2015 during a NATO patrol.

Photograph taken over Baltic airspace by RAF Typhoon pilots, intercepting Russian Mikoyan MiG-31 aircraft on 24 July 2015 during a NATO patrol.

AMID a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia, many of the world’s powers have reported a surge in airspace violations where aircraft are scrambled to intercept foreign warplanes. No more so than within NATO where members were forced to conduct more than 500 scrambles over Europe in 2014 – a fourfold increase on the previous year.

Nearly 85% of these NATO scrambles were to intercept Russian aircraft. This year alone, there have been more than 300 scrambles to date. Not since the end of the cold war has the West witnessed such high numbers.

Russia has also alleged that NATO sorties near its borders more than doubled last year. NATO responded by calling the claim ‘deliberately vague’.

Despite the increase in interceptions, NATO will be halving the number of aircraft used in its Baltic air-policing mission later this year. Several incidents reveal there is a risk of escalation because of the sheer volume of incidents arising.

A scramble doesn’t necessarily imply a breach of sovereign airspace or military aviation rules. In most cases, it was deemed there had been no breach. During 2014, there were 10 incursions by Russian aircraft into airspace belonging to NATO members. Eight of these were over islands belonging to Estonia, and the others were into Norwegian and Polish airspace in March and April respectively (and both lasted seconds).

Russian aircraft did briefly enter airspace belonging to Finland, which is not a NATO member, on 26 June. Sweden has reported nine incursions into its airspace so far this year, with the country’s airspace being breached 12 times in 2014.

It is difficult to establish exactly what motivates Russia or to know for certain if these events were provocations, a test of alertness or other factors.

But what isn’t in doubt is the increase in Russian activity. In comparison with current levels of activity, there were, for example, only seven Russian incursions into Estonian airspace between 2006 and 2013.

Russian manoeuvres have also included several more provocative, albeit isolated, incidents. These have included aircraft flying several times over military ships and Russian bombers taking unconventional paths in proximity to US and British airspace. According to Russia, though, this has all been driven by an increase in the activities of ‘NATO countries and their partners’ that have freely encroached on its airspace.

Russia insists that its air force flights, which consist mostly of training sorties in international airspace, needed to be seen within the context of a ‘drastic increase in the activity of foreign reconnaissance and combat planes near Russian borders’.

Russia insists that NATO carried out more than 3,000 tactical aviation sorties near Russian borders in 2014, more than double the previous year. NATO patrols over Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia increased 3.5 times.

However, a spokesperson at NATO’s Supreme HQ Allied Powers Europe, said that Russia is regularly using disinformation and propaganda to confuse the public regarding current events. The source acknowledged: ‘Scrambles are launched in response to Russian activity. The sole aim is to preserve the integrity of NATO European airspace and to safeguard NATO nations from air attacks.’ Also acknowledged was the fact that NATO had increased the numbers of surveillance flights in recent months, but that those flights had remained ‘hundreds of kilometres from Russia’s borders’.

Despite the increasing frequency of interceptions with Russian aircrafts, NATO will be scaling back the number of the Baltic patrolling mission’s aircraft to eight this autumn, from 16. Prior to events in Ukraine, the patrolling and surveillance mission consisted of four aircraft. NATO insists the reduction was appropriate to the scale of the task.

It is also important to understand that there are mitigating factors at play in the surge of airspace incursions. National aviation boundaries are tight in Eastern Europe, and the Ukraine conflict has heightened political and military sensitivities.

The single biggest reason for the huge increase in the number of scrambles is because Russian aircraft often do not abide by international conventions. Russian military aircraft often keep their transponders switched off and, as a result, cannot be identified by air traffic controllers. The practice is dangerous and could cause a mid-air collision. The Russian military does not share their flight plans, either.

In an analysis by the European Leadership Network (ELN) of 66 incidents, one of the three ‘high risk’ incidents recorded between March 2014 and March 2015 involved a near-collision between a Scandinavian airline 737 with 132 passengers taking off from Copenhagen and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft. This was due to the latter not broadcasting its position or squawking a code from its transponder.

The Russian government said: ‘Russian pilots are training under strict orders to follow the requirements of international and national laws and rules. The flights take place over uninhabited areas, mostly open seas, without violating the state borders. Russian aircraft are constantly shadowed by NATO fighters. Russia respects all international and national restrictions imposed on such activities, and will do so in the future.’

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