Category Archives: Russia

Government, NATO, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

Tensions rise in the Crimea…

UKRAINE

Intro: Tensions rise in Ukraine following the storming of a key compound post by Russian troops in the Crimea

The crisis in Ukraine has taken a dramatic turn as Russian troops have stormed a key compound post in the Crimea.

While no shots were fired, it is the first time the Russians have used force to increase their grip on the disputed peninsula. The act of aggression took place in the strategic port of Sevastopol.

Tensions are increasing as a US warship arrived in the Black Sea. The arrival of the guided missile destroyer USS Truxton has officially been described as ‘routine’ by Washington.

The presence of the US warship, however, is seen as hugely significant just hours after the Pentagon unveiled a large increase in air power in the region. Six F-15 Eagle fighters and one KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker have boosted the four NATO warplanes based in Poland. Twelve more F-16 Fighting Falcons will arrive next week.

The US has been dispatching warplanes in an effort to reassure allies alarmed by Russia’s effective seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

The increase in US military muscle, which will join NATO patrols in the Baltics, came as the Turkish Air Force scrambled six F-16 fighter jets after a Russian surveillance aircraft flew along its Black Sea coast. Georgia has also sent up its warplanes, too.

Tensions have continued to rise following a declaration from Ukraine that ‘no one in the civilised world’ would recognise a planned referendum by the Crimean parliament on joining Russia. Vladimir Putin has again rebuffed a warning from US President Barack Obama over Moscow’s military intervention in Crimea, insisting that the Kremlin could not ignore calls for help from Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Mr Putin has said that Moscow and Washington were ‘still far apart’ on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken ‘absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, south eastern and Crimea regions’. ‘Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law,’ he said.

Moscow is now believed to have poured more troops into the southern peninsula where Russian forces have seized control. According to one source there are now 30,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea, compared to 11,000 permanently based in the port of Sevastopol before the crisis began.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stressed that Ukraine was open to talks with Russia as long as it withdrew its troops and abided by international agreements. In a warning to the ‘separatist and other traitors of the Ukrainian state’ he said: ‘Any decision of yours is deliberately unlawful and unconstitutional and no-one in the civilised world will recognise the decision of the so-called referendum by the so-called Crimean authorities.’

Observers from the Organisation for the Security and Co-operation in Europe, including three British Army officers, have been refused entry to Crimea by armed militia which are said to have been growing in numbers in recent days.

It has been reported that Serbian nationalists and paramilitaries had travelled to the area and were now patrolling the streets alongside Russian Cossacks. Reports indicate they were seen wearing ‘Chetnik’ badges of the Serbian nationalist guerrilla force blamed for carrying out ‘ethnic cleansing’ during the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

In a sign of further Russian pressure on the interim government in Kiev, Russian energy giant Gazprom said it would cut off gas exports if a £1.3 billion debt was not settled by Ukraine. Chief executive Alexi Miller warned: ‘We cannot deliver gas for free.’ Moscow last cut off Ukraine’s gas in 2009, halting supplies to much of the EU, which also caused disruptions in Britain.

Russia’s foreign ministry said NATOs decision to curb its co-operation with Moscow showed a ‘biased and prejudiced approach’ over Ukraine.

China has also stepped in to say that a political solution rather than sanctions against Russia was the best way to resolve the crisis.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Russia, Ukraine, United States

Drawing a line with Russia…

THE UKRAINIAN DICHOTOMY

Intro: The West should have concerns, and these should leave Mr Putin in no doubt that his forceful entries in Georgia in 2008 and now in Ukraine, cannot be allowed to extend to those former Soviet countries – such as in the Baltic States – that are now part of the European Union and NATO, but which also have Russian-speaking populations

A meeting of the NATO-Russia council earlier this week to discuss events unfolding in Ukraine was a welcome development in the efforts to defuse the crisis. Dialogue has been important because not only is ‘jaw-jaw’ better than ‘war-war’, but because of the need to minimise the risk of misunderstandings and misjudgements.

The West appears to have allowed the Russians to annex Crimea without the slightest of physical restraint, a position that has immediately led to the Kremlin redrawing the map of Russia that now contains and subsumes the southern region of Ukraine. The perception that the West was rather relaxed was reinforced when a document photographed in the hands of a British government security adviser appeared to rule out any direct response to Russian aggression in Crimea, whether military action or economic sanctions. There is also irony in the fact that Vladimir Putin says he did not aim in annexing the Crimea, a portrayal that will be impossible for some to untangle.

A political anomaly arose, too, when the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said that Washington was reaffirming its guarantee of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and integrity as set out in the Budapest Declaration of 1994, which the UK is also a party and signatory to. How, though, this can possibly extend to keeping Crimea within Ukraine is not clear. Even if sanctions are off-limits – for the Government will be acutely aware that any British sanctions could soon backfire, such as energy supplies from Russia to Europe being curtailed or Russian capital outflights from the City of London – it is difficult to see Mr Putin being cowed by diplomatic isolation or the cancellation of the planned G8 summit in Sochi in June. No doubt, the Russian leader can probably have confidence in the quickly arranged referendum planned for March 30, which will aim to grant greater autonomy for Crimea, to do his annexation for him.

But the West should have concerns, and these should leave Mr Putin in no doubt that his forceful entries in Georgia in 2008 and now in Ukraine, cannot be allowed to extend to those former Soviet countries – such as in the Baltic States – that are now part of the European Union and NATO, but which also have Russian-speaking populations.

John Kerry said the United States did not seek a confrontation with Russia, but will stand-by Ukraine. How, when US sanctions on Russia has already led to Mr Putin selling billions of dollars’ worth of his country’s gold in propping up the Russian Rouble? Further volatility on the Russian currency could have a devastating effect on the livelihoods of almost all Russians.

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Economic, European Union, Foreign Affairs, Government, Russia, Society, United Nations, United States

Diplomacy can help Ukraine survive. A military intervention by the west in Crimea is not an option…

Intro: The hard fact is that Russia, while a major part of the problem, also has to be part of the solution

The Russian defence ministry denied issuing an ultimatum to the Ukraine military positioned in Crimea that they would be attacked if they did not surrender by 3 am today. Russia claims this is but one of a number of provocations that has been issued, by whom it is not entirely clear. For many observers, though, this is a clear signal that Russian forces are intent in pushing into Crimea by having a head-on confrontation with Ukraine’s military. Quite probably, it is a Russian manoeuvre which sends out a blunt and sinister message – we are here to stay in Crimea to protect Russian interests and any calls for us to depart will fall on deaf ears.

Indeed, the strategic importance of Crimea to Russia is difficult to understate. It contains Russia’s main Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol. Without it, sea-lane transit to the Mediterranean becomes a lot harder, and any loss of such an asset would make Russia look a lot more vulnerable. Despite what others may wish for, Russia is not going to give up Crimea under almost any circumstances. While Europe and the United States can only hope that Russia will relinquish its Crimean stranglehold, many will acknowledge the lack of leverage the west has. Vladimir Putin can claim to be protecting his citizens in eastern and southern Ukraine against what has become a chaotic state where law does not rule. The history of Crimea clearly shows that this is a state which is hostile and threatening to its people.

Diplomacy is the west’s only tool and it has to recognise this. There is no question that military action can be taken in response. The hard fact is that Russia, while a major part of the problem, also has to be part of the solution. For how will restoring a lasting normalisation of life in Ukraine be possible unless Russia is part of that process?

Whilst tacticians will surely be right in their riposte that before normalisation can begin, the sabre-rattling has to stop and the military manoeuvring ended. But it is hardly something now that can be stopped overnight.

Coupled with the risk of military fighting breaking out, there is also the possibility that civilian groups might start attacking each other. Crimea is a state of some six religions and encompasses a wide and ethnic diversity. With ethnic and national tensions already inflamed, and with the rule of law so fractured, police forces would struggle to cope given that they are already notoriously distrusted. Restoring calm is urgently needed.

This is where western diplomacy can play a major role. Mr Putin can be threatened with diplomatic and economic isolation, such as those already issued by the United States and the European Union, but he can also be offered sweeteners in the form of emergency money that Ukraine will need to function and for it to repay its debts to Russia.

The task in resolving the dispute in Crimea is becoming increasingly more difficult by the day. This will not be helped if shots are fired which would risk provoking a major conflict.

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