European Union, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States

Russian troops continue to amass on the Ukrainian border…

UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said there are ‘record number’ of Russian troops on his country’s borders with Russia.

Speaking this week, Poroshenko said that the information came from NATO, US and EU sources as well as Ukrainian intelligence.

Reports of an increasing Russian presence on the border have been recurring since NATO commander Philip Breedlove warned last month of the risk of a return to heavy fighting in Eastern Ukraine. Kiev has repeatedly reported snap surges in violence by Russian backed rebels in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions during this time.

Most recently Ukraine’s defence forces complained of 540 violations of the ceasefire signed between Moscow, Kiev and the rebels in February, all in the space of just a week at the end of June.

As early as May, intelligence was portraying a mass build-up of troops and heavy weapons on the Russian side of the Ukraine-Russian border including tanks, rocket launchers and artillery.

Speaking about the current situation, Poroshenko said: ‘We have information that a record number of Russian armed forces have been stationed on the Ukrainian border.’

‘The evidence we have is not solely from our own intelligence sources, but we have confirmation from NATO and US lines as well as from EU states.’

Poroshenko recently visited some of the easternmost positions held by pro-Kiev forces in Donetsk region, including the port city Mariupol, the outskirts of which have sustained some of the most persistent attacks from pro-Russian separatists since February.

‘We have information about possible key targets of attacks and we regularly perform staff exercises,’ Poroshenko said. ‘We will defend our country. Today we have a completely different army compared with a year ago.’

The Ukrainian president did not give a precise number for how many Russian soldiers he believes are now on Ukraine’s border, but last month defence minister Stepan Poltorak estimated that there were 55,000.

Irrefutable evidence

The Prime Minister of Ukraine has claimed that Vladimir Putin is trying to ‘eliminate Ukraine’ as conflict continues between government-backed troops and rebels.

Russia has persistently denied supporting separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine with money and weaponry but Arseniy Yatsenyuk said there was irrefutable evidence of the presence of Russian fighters and equipment.

He has claimed ‘tens of thousands’ of soldiers and guerrillas were in Donetsk and Luhansk with Russian-supplied tanks and missiles.

‘Putin’s aim is to kill the Ukrainian project, just to eliminate Ukraine — I have no doubt,’ he said. ‘For Putin, Ukraine is the battlefield against the free world.’

Mr Yatsenyuk, who rose to his post after the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych in February last year, said he was ‘absolutely sure’ that MH17 was shot down by ‘Russian-led terrorists’, possibly with the help of Russian soldiers.

Ukraine is among countries including the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium and Malaysia calling for an international tribunal on the disaster that killed 298 people exactly a year ago.

The Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond supported the calls while offering his condolences to everyone affected by the disaster and promising the Government’s support for families of the 10 Britons who also died.

‘Justice must be delivered for the 298 innocent people who lost their lives,’ Mr Hammond said.

‘That requires an international tribunal, backed by a resolution binding all UN member states, to prosecute those responsible.

‘Any attempt to undermine this process would deprive the victims of justice and cannot be tolerated.’

A UN resolution would bind all member states to bring charges against whoever shot down MH17 but Russia is expected to use its veto on the Security Council to prevent the tribunal.

Speaking with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Mr Putin said it would be ‘premature and counterproductive’ before initial investigations were completed, according to a Kremlin statement.

Mr Rutte had said the move would give ‘the best guarantee of cooperation from all countries’ in seeking justice for the families of the victims.

On the day the Boeing 777 went down, a post attributed to a rebel leader claimed separatists had shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane in Donetsk.

The swiftly-deleted post, accompanied by a video of rising smoke, said: ‘We warned them – don’t fly in our sky.’

Separatist forces operating around the crash site in Hrabove have since denied any involvement but Russian rebel leader Igor Girkin has been named in a lawsuit seeking $900 million (£575 million) in damages for the families of 18 passengers – six of them British.

The Netherlands is leading the criminal investigation into the downing of MH17 as most of the passengers were Dutch and a final report on the cause of the crash is due to be released in October by the Dutch Safety Board.

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Britain, European Union, Foreign Affairs, Government, Military, NATO, Politics, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United Nations, United States

Russian troops amass on Ukraine’s border…

UKRAINE

Intro: As world leaders tell Vladimir Putin to back off, 80,000 Russian soldiers have amassed on Ukraine’s borders. The fear now is that there could be a full-scale invasion…

Ukraine has warned that 80,000 Russian troops have amassed on its borders and could invade. World leaders have told Vladimir Putin to back off.

A senior security chief in Kiev said Moscow could launch a full-scale invasion and Russian troops would be in the Ukrainian capital within ‘two or three hours’ of the order to advance.

Photographs of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers close to Ukraine’s borders are adding to the tensions.

British officials have been receiving reports about Russian troops massing on the border since Tuesday and are concerned by the show of force.

British intelligence is unsure whether the movements are intended to back up the annexation of Crimea, preparation for an invasion or simply defensive.

Moscow’s show of force started earlier this week as Ukraine’s prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, met Barack Obama in the Oval Office and NATO continued military exercises in Poland.

During a week of rising tensions, G7 leaders, including David Cameron and Mr Obama, warned Russia not to annex the Crimea after a referendum in the province, tomorrow, which has been taken over by pro-Putin troops.

Their statement warns the Russian president to ‘cease all efforts to change the status of Crimea contrary to Ukrainian law and in violation of international law’ and threatens ‘further action’ if Moscow seizes Crimea.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Russian MPs who voted to use force in Ukraine and Kremlin officials behind the invasion would be hit with asset freezes and a travel ban to the European Union – most likely to be issued at a Brussels summit on Monday.

But the main concern of Western leaders is to deter Russia from seizing the rest of Eastern Ukraine.

Andriy Parubly, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, has said that even Kiev may not be safe from Putin’s troops, who were regrouping in ‘an offensive manner’.

Mr Parubly claimed that forces massing included ‘over 80,000 personnel, up to 270 tanks, 180 armoured vehicles, 380 artillery systems, 18 multiple-launch missile systems, 140 combat aircraft, 90 combat helicopters and 19 warships and cutters’. He added: ‘Critical is the situation not only in Crimea, but along the entire north-eastern frontier. In fact, Russian troop units are two or three hours of travel from Kiev.’

Former Putin adviser Andrey Illarionov has predicted that in addition to Crimea, Putin may move to annex other major cities in Ukraine – including Kharkov, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Odessa.

Pictures of Russian armoured vehicles on the move in regions close to the Ukrainian border include motorised infantry vehicles and tanks. The military movements are also said to include Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launch vehicles. Tanks have also been pictured being carried by rail in Belgorod, and are reported to be parked in a village just 12 miles from the border.

The moves came as the Russian armed forces announced a huge military exercise by its airborne troops. The three-day exercise ordered by Putin involved a vast ‘landing operation’ by 4,000 paratroopers.

NATO has conducted its own show of force to reassure countries in Eastern Europe. The US and Poland began war games during the week that involved at least 12 American F-16 fighter jets. A joint naval exercise of US, Bulgarian and Romanian naval forces in the Black Sea also started.

Events have been building to a crunch point when tomorrow Crimea will vote on whether to join Russia. If Putin recognises the province as Russian, sanctions will follow.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met in London yesterday, but as expected those talks failed to make any progress on the crisis.

Infographic:

Geo-political infographic of Ukraine and of Crimea.

Geo-political infographic of Ukraine and of Crimea

 

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Government, NATO, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

Tensions rise in the Crimea…

UKRAINE

Intro: Tensions rise in Ukraine following the storming of a key compound post by Russian troops in the Crimea

The crisis in Ukraine has taken a dramatic turn as Russian troops have stormed a key compound post in the Crimea.

While no shots were fired, it is the first time the Russians have used force to increase their grip on the disputed peninsula. The act of aggression took place in the strategic port of Sevastopol.

Tensions are increasing as a US warship arrived in the Black Sea. The arrival of the guided missile destroyer USS Truxton has officially been described as ‘routine’ by Washington.

The presence of the US warship, however, is seen as hugely significant just hours after the Pentagon unveiled a large increase in air power in the region. Six F-15 Eagle fighters and one KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker have boosted the four NATO warplanes based in Poland. Twelve more F-16 Fighting Falcons will arrive next week.

The US has been dispatching warplanes in an effort to reassure allies alarmed by Russia’s effective seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

The increase in US military muscle, which will join NATO patrols in the Baltics, came as the Turkish Air Force scrambled six F-16 fighter jets after a Russian surveillance aircraft flew along its Black Sea coast. Georgia has also sent up its warplanes, too.

Tensions have continued to rise following a declaration from Ukraine that ‘no one in the civilised world’ would recognise a planned referendum by the Crimean parliament on joining Russia. Vladimir Putin has again rebuffed a warning from US President Barack Obama over Moscow’s military intervention in Crimea, insisting that the Kremlin could not ignore calls for help from Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Mr Putin has said that Moscow and Washington were ‘still far apart’ on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken ‘absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, south eastern and Crimea regions’. ‘Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law,’ he said.

Moscow is now believed to have poured more troops into the southern peninsula where Russian forces have seized control. According to one source there are now 30,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea, compared to 11,000 permanently based in the port of Sevastopol before the crisis began.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stressed that Ukraine was open to talks with Russia as long as it withdrew its troops and abided by international agreements. In a warning to the ‘separatist and other traitors of the Ukrainian state’ he said: ‘Any decision of yours is deliberately unlawful and unconstitutional and no-one in the civilised world will recognise the decision of the so-called referendum by the so-called Crimean authorities.’

Observers from the Organisation for the Security and Co-operation in Europe, including three British Army officers, have been refused entry to Crimea by armed militia which are said to have been growing in numbers in recent days.

It has been reported that Serbian nationalists and paramilitaries had travelled to the area and were now patrolling the streets alongside Russian Cossacks. Reports indicate they were seen wearing ‘Chetnik’ badges of the Serbian nationalist guerrilla force blamed for carrying out ‘ethnic cleansing’ during the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

In a sign of further Russian pressure on the interim government in Kiev, Russian energy giant Gazprom said it would cut off gas exports if a £1.3 billion debt was not settled by Ukraine. Chief executive Alexi Miller warned: ‘We cannot deliver gas for free.’ Moscow last cut off Ukraine’s gas in 2009, halting supplies to much of the EU, which also caused disruptions in Britain.

Russia’s foreign ministry said NATOs decision to curb its co-operation with Moscow showed a ‘biased and prejudiced approach’ over Ukraine.

China has also stepped in to say that a political solution rather than sanctions against Russia was the best way to resolve the crisis.

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