Britain, European Union, Government, Politics

The invoking of Article 50 is momentous and unprecedented

BREXIT

The triggering of Article 50 has been hailed as a momentous day for Britain – a day in which many have grown increasingly disillusioned with the EU and one which they feared they would never live to see.

Even after the historic result last June, it seemed possible that the europhile political and judicial Establishment might find ways to overturn the will of the people.

That they have not succeeded reflects huge credit on Theresa May.

‘Brexit means Brexit,’ she said – and now she has been as good as her word, as she has invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This has given Brussels formal notice that Britain will withdraw from the EU by 29 March 2019.

Now the hard work begins. No one should underestimate the challenge facing our negotiators, as they set about disentangling the UK from 40 years of regulation.

Up against them will be an unaccountable eurocracy, anxious to defend its perks and privileges, pressing for a punitive deal to dissuade other members tempted to follow Britain’s path to freedom.

The UK enters the talks in a better position than most dared hope. Confounding Project Fear, the economy is in robust shape and countries around the world are queuing up to do trade deals with Britain.

BREXIT cartoon:

EU cartoon

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Britain, European Union, Government, Politics

Britain triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

UNITED KINGDOM/EUROPEAN UNION

Theresa May Article 50

Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet signs the Article 50 letter, as she prepares to trigger the start of the UK’s formal withdrawal from the EU

Prime Minister Theresa May has kicked off the two-year process of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union in what she said was “an historic moment from which there can be no turning back”.

Minutes after a letter informing the European Council of the UK’s intention to leave, Mrs May told the House of Commons that the Government was acting on “the democratic will of the British people” expressed in last year’s referendum vote for Brexit.

Describing EU withdrawal as one of the “great turning points in our national story”, Mrs May told MPs: “Today, the Government acts on the democratic will of the British people and it acts too on the clear and convincing position of this House.”

Mrs May said: “The Article 50 process is now under way and, in accordance with the wishes of the British people, the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.

“This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back. Britain is leaving the European Union.

“We are going to make our own decisions and our own laws, we are going to take control of the things that matter most to us, and we are going to take this opportunity to build a stronger, fairer Britain – a country that our children and grandchildren are proud to call home.

“That is our ambition and our opportunity.”

The first official announcement that Article 50 had been triggered came minutes before Mrs May’s statement, as Mr Tusk sent out a message on Twitter while she was taking her regular weekly session of Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons.

Accompanied by a photograph of the handover of the letter, Mr Tusk wrote: “After nine months the UK has delivered. #Brexit.”

Mrs May said leaving the EU was a “unique opportunity” to “shape a brighter future” for the UK.

She said that while the UK would remain the “best friend and neighbour” to its EU partners, it would also look beyond the borders of Europe.

“We can choose to say the task ahead is too great, we can choose to turn our face to the past and believe it can’t be done, or we can look forward with optimism and hope and to believe in the enduring power of the British spirit,” she said.

“I choose to believe in Britain and that our best days lie ahead.”

Mrs May said the Article 50 letter set out:

. That the “deep and special partnership” sought by the UK was in the interests of both Britain and the EU;

. That the UK will approach the talks in a “spirit of sincere co-operation”;

. That the terms of the future partnership should be agreed alongside those of withdrawal within the two-year Article 50 timetable.

The Prime Minister confirmed that the final deal agreed between the UK and the EU would be put to a vote of both Houses of Parliament “before it comes into force”.

She also stressed that the Government’s plans would end the jurisdiction of the European Court.

“We will take control over our own laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain,” she said.

Laws would be made in the four nations of the UK and interpreted by judges “not in Luxembourg but in courts across this country”.

See also: Theresa May’s vision for post-Brexit Britain

  • What happens now?

The leaders of the remaining 27 EU member states will hold an emergency meeting on April 29 to agree a common response to Britain’s demands.

The meeting will happen just days before the French election and means there will be no negotiations for a month.

Mr Tusk will then reply from the council to Mrs May after about six weeks, making clear the EU’s negotiating position, formally sounding the starting gun on talks.

With both sides having set out their demands, talks will begin between British officials and bureaucrats from the European Commission about the terms of Britain’s exit.

  • How will the EU respond?

Theresa May was given a foretaste of the rocky road ahead when European leaders went on the attack, telling her they will veto any attempt to curtail migrants’ rights before the withdrawal takes place in 2019.

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned Mrs May that any “unilateral decision” to limit the rights of EU citizens in the UK “would be contrary to EU law” and would be “vigorously” opposed.

While Mrs May’s letter to Mr Tusk has included a broad outline of her negotiating position, it does not contain any mention of a cut-off date for migrants’ rights.

The leaders of the remaining 27 EU member states will hold an emergency meeting on April 29.

  • Is it reversible?

The Government argues that the decision to trigger Article 50 is irreversible because David Cameron promised to act on the will of voters and respect the outcome of June’s referendum.

The question of irrevocability was raised during a Supreme Court hearing on the right of Parliament to give its approval to trigger the process of leaving the EU.

Jeremy Wright QC, who represented Theresa May, argued:

“We do not argue that an Article 50 notice can be revoked and we would like the court to proceed on the basis a notification is irrevocable.”

He added that “parliament’s role in the process” of leaving the EU does not just stop after Article 50 is triggered.

Lord Kerr, who devised the clause in the Lisbon Treaty, has argued the country “might want to think again” when the details of the Prime Minister’s deal with the EU emerge.

  • What does it actually mean for Europe?

Britain’s departure leaves a substantial hole in the EU which now loses the world’s fifth-largest economy, a nuclear power and a member of the UN Security Council.

Much will depend on the kind of relationship Britain establishes with the EU after Brexit. Theresa May has signalled she wants to use the UK military power and diplomatic heft as a way of the UK demonstrating it is committed to maintaining security “in the neighbourhood”.

If negotiations turn nasty, and talks break down, it may take some time to build the diplomatic apparatus to allow Britain to contribute to “European” diplomacy from outside the EU.

The result is likely to be less influence for both the EU and the UK in a fracturing global architecture where bilateralism is on the rise and the US is increasingly unwilling to play the world’s policeman.

  • So could others now leave?

The current polling data in Europe suggests that this is unlikely any time soon, even though a growing number of EU countries, led by the Netherlands, France, Italy and Poland have a significant Eurosceptic political element.

There is much dissatisfaction in Europe about the failure to generate jobs and a better economic future, but surveys show that even in countries where demand for a referendum is high – like Italy and the Netherlands – voters still do not wish to leave the EU for now.

  • Will we see more or less Europe?

There are those in Brussels who still hope that Brexit will inject new life in the grand European project – spurred on, they hope, by the election of Emmanuel Macron in France and, possibly even the pro-EU Martin Schulz in Germany.

With these two new leaders in place, the Franco-German axis which has always driven the direction of the EU might suddenly fire into life. Sceptics note however, that on the major questions such as the Euro, EU defence and immigration, France and Germany remain poles apart.

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Britain, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Government contingencies needed if Brexit fails to deliver a trade deal

BRITAIN

Intro: We will all shortly find out precisely where we stand as Theresa May triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

In an era of political turbulence, the weeks and months ahead promise to be momentous in recent British history. The passage of the Parliamentary Bill to begin the process of leaving the EU is now complete. The legislative reality of the bill will now make possible the decision that was taken by the British electorate almost nine months ago.

Some people argue that this process has taken far too long, but the political upheaval that followed the referendum and the protracted court case over parliamentary sovereign rights have delayed matters. In many ways, though, this should have been hugely advantageous for the Government. It has had time to prepare for what promises to be the most complex set of international negotiations since we sought entry into the Common Market and EEC in the early Seventies. Indeed, given the complexities, they will pale into insignificance by comparison with what lies ahead for the British prime minister and her team.

A report from the Commons foreign affairs committee urged the Government to devise a contingency plan in the event of Britain leaving the EU with no deal and said it would be a ‘dereliction of duty’ not to prepare for such an eventuality. This point is well borne out if we consider that reverting to basic World Trade Organisation rules will leave us facing trade barriers and increasing levels of tariffs on trade. The country clearly needs to know before we leave what a “no deal” will entail.

The biggest danger is that British pragmatism will clash with EU romanticism. While a deal allowing British goods and services the same access to the single market they enjoy now is in everyone’s interests, this won’t necessarily be the view held on the Continent, especially in Brussels.

There is a risk that this process, once handed over to the European Commission by the Council of Ministers, will become enmired in the very bureaucracy that led Britain to lose faith in the whole project. While some of Europe’s elected politicians might be inclined to recognise the good sense of a British position they will likely become too distracted by their own domestic politics to focus on ours.

Undoubtedly, The Commission will have huge influence over these talks, how they are handled and the direction in which they travel. Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, the Commission principals in charge of the EU negotiations, will be anxious to deny the UK anything that might encourage others across the EU which they too might wish to emulate. The rise of populist movements across Europe, particularly in the wake of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election victory in America, will weigh heavily.

While most should wish for a mutually beneficially agreement, the Government must prepare fully for the possibility that there won’t be a trade deal. The time for further discussion is almost over – even if Scotland continues with its position of holding a second Scottish independence referendum.

We will all shortly find out precisely where we stand as Theresa May triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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