Tag Archives: Brexit

Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Brexit: The Single Market & Related Options

BREXIT – ACCESS TO MARKETS

Single-Market

Brexit Briefing: The Single Market

AS Brexit negotiations begin to extricate the UK from the European Union, one of the biggest factors ministers will have to contend with is the issue of the single market. The EU has said that Britain will not be allowed to benefit from the free-trade arrangements once it has left the bloc, a major part of why the EU exists for the mutual benefit of constituent members. So, if the UK were forced to leave the single market (very much against its wishes), what could we end up with?

. The Norway Model

MEMBERSHIP of the European Economic Area (EEA) would put Britain alongside Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, and is what Remainers mean when they talk about staying in the ‘single market’. It would keep existing trading rules but take Britain out of the Common Agricultural Policy. However, we would also have to swallow EU laws without being able to influence them, accept rulings by European judges and carry on paying into the budget (Norway’s fee is estimated at around 90 per cent of the UK’s per person). Uncontrolled immigration would continue. Unacceptable to Tory Eurosceptics.

. The Swiss Model

A SORT of EEA minus. The Swiss are members of the European Free Trade Association but not the EEA. They have a series of bilateral trade deals with the EU, which cover trade in goods but very little in services such as banking. The Swiss can negotiate trade deals with third countries, but also make a huge financial contribution to the EU. They are inside the passport-free Schengen zone and have to accept free movement. This option is also toxic for Eurosceptics.

. The Ukraine Model

A JANUARY 2016 agreement between the EU and the Ukraine could form the basis for the UK deal. It includes trade market access and co-operation on defence and security but doesn’t require free movement or the application of EU law. However, the UK would also require a deal on financial services.

. PM’s ‘free trade deal’

IN JANUARY, the Prime Minister said she wanted a ‘deep and special partnership’ covering trade and security. At the same time she says – echoing the Leave campaign – that Britain should take back control of its laws, borders and money. That means no acceptance of EU laws, no more free movement and an end to ‘vast contributions’ to the EU budget. Open issues include immigration rules, how much the UK pays to belong to EU agencies such as Europol, the ‘divorce bill’ and what the new trade rules are. The time it takes to implement such a deal could give Mrs May room for manoeuvre.

. No deal

BRITAIN would revert to World Trade Organisation rules – meaning tariffs on some goods and services. Likely to mean no ‘passporting’ rights for the City of London to trade on the continent. It would create a legal and administrative vacuum on the rights of EU nationals in the UK and British ex-pats, the Irish border, security co-operation, and deals on aviation, agriculture and fishing. Chaotic in the short term.

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Britain, European Union, Finance

Macron tells British PM that UK can ‘always’ change its mind on Brexit

FRENCH-BRITISH RELATIONS

French President Emmanuel Macron Receives British Prime Minister Theresa May At Elysee Palace

The summit in Paris was intended to set out a joint approach to tackling terrorism and online radicalisation.

The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has told Theresa May that the door is “always open” for the UK to change its mind about Brexit.

Emmanuel Macron appeared to hold out the prospect of allowing Britain to re-enter the EU as the pair held a joint news conference in the garden of the Elysee Palace in Paris.

Mr Macron said: “Of course the door remains open, always open, until the negotiations come to an end.”

But he stressed that “once the negotiations have started, we should be well aware that it will be more difficult to move backwards”.

Their first bilateral meeting had the uncomfortable backdrop of Mrs May – abroad for the first time since losing her majority – meeting the President following his recent comfortable election victory and on the brink of big gains for his party in parliament.

It comes as the UK’s Brexit strategy has been thrown into doubt by the shock election result, with pressure on Mrs May from factions within and outside her party to water down her threat to withdraw Britain from the EU with “no deal”.

The Prime Minister insisted that the Brexit negotiations – due to start next week – would start on time and that there would be no requests for a delay from the British side.

But she dodged a question on whether she now intended to pursue a “soft Brexit”, saying: “We want to maintain a close relationship and close partnership with the EU and individual member states.”

She added that after the election there was a “unity of purpose that having voted to leave the EU, that the Government gets on and makes a success of it”.

The President – asked if he believed that is what Mrs May intended as the leader of a minority Government – said it was for her to comment on the UK’s intentions.

Mrs May is said to be close to formalising a confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, which has reservations about leaving the EU Customs Union and would refuse a hard border with the Republic of Ireland.

The summit in Paris was intended to set out a joint approach to tackling terrorism and online radicalisation, including levying hefty fines on the tech giants such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube for failing to remove extremist content.

Echoing some of the rhetoric from British ministers about the need to allow the security services to access encrypted messages, Mr Macron said the intelligence agencies must be able to access digital content “no matter where it is located”.

Both leaders have stressed their “solidarity” in the face of terrorism. Mrs May said that “nowhere is our co-operation closer than in the area of defence and security”, with both countries leading international efforts to attack Islamic State with airstrikes.

Earlier, the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble said in an interview with Bloomberg that if the UK changed its mind on leaving the EU, “of course they would find open doors” in Europe.

 

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Britain, Government, Politics

General Election 2017: A Government in crisis

ANALYSIS

BRITAIN-VOTE

The Prime Minister on the steps of 10 Downing Street issues a statement following the verdict of the British electorate after the General Election result. Mrs May insists she will carry on as prime minister, will form a minority government and will seek the help of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party in pursuing her agenda.

Theresa May’s hand is neither strong nor stable. The rapid reappointment of five top Cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Phillip Hammond, is evidence that the Conservative Party retain office but not much in power. A minority Government in the making is the worst possible outcome for a Prime Minister about to enter negotiations with the EU over the Brexit settlement.

An extensive reshuffle had been planned. It did not happen. There was no ceremonial walk down Downing Street.

It is worth noting where we were just before the PM called the snap election.

The Prime Minister had inherited David Cameron’s 12-seat majority. She has now lost that. Expectations that Mrs May was hopeful of more than a 100 seat majority just seven weeks ago after calling the election has spectacularly backfired that has left the Prime Minister embarrassed and in free-fall.

She had a manifesto that had been voted on by a majority, limiting the House of Lords capacity to interfere on manifesto promises.

Now the House of Lords is free to use its legislative block on Tory manifesto promises that have not won majority support from the electorate, such as leaving the single market and the customs union.

The PM needs to pass a Queen’s Speech in the next few days – with the help of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Doing a deal with the DUP has created acute concern among some Conservatives, in particular Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, over climate change denial and gay rights.

The PM had promised to strengthen her hand in negotiation with the EU.

Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now well aware that her hand is weaker not stronger.

We might well be tempted to ask as to what will happen if the first thing being demanded is an exit bill from the EU of tens of billions of pounds as the first procedural step in extricating ourselves from the EU.

Does Mrs May have a mandate to threaten leaving with no deal? If time ran out would Parliament extend the deal? Does the House of Lords feel obliged to pass the Great Repeal Bill?

The PM has immediate problems because of her lack of MPs within her own party.

Many are also furious with a campaign lacking in vision and positivity, but also a strategic mistake.

The May strategy was to alienate “citizens of nowhere” and win over Labour working class heartlands. It failed.

On Thursday, probably a majority of voters were Remain voters, and yet Mrs May targeted her Brexit efforts at a subset of Leave voters.

Tory MPs report a wave of hostility from young voters and Tory voters too over Mrs May’s Brexit plans.

In London, some Tory councillors and Tory aides to ministers voted Lib Dem.

Kensington and Battersea went to Labour. Even Cambridge, a staunchly held Conservative seat since the 1940s, went to Labour.

In Downing Street Mrs May said only the Conservatives “have the legitimacy” to form a government.

And yet she said at almost every election campaign rally that if she lost just six seats she would have lost the election.

She is still in Downing Street – mainly because the Tory backbenchers can think of no better option.

There is a myriad of pitfalls that await her. Any number could catalyse her exit from Downing Street.

One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.

Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.

The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.

It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.

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