Tag Archives: Geneva agreement

Europe, European Union, Government, Politics, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

As Ukraine relaunches an anti-terrorist operation against rebels, Russia provides a stern warning…

Eastern cities and towns of Ukraine

UKRAINE

Russia has promised to retaliate if its interests are attacked as Ukraine’s leaders relaunched their ‘anti-terror’ offensive and threatened to ‘liquidate’ armed pro-Russian rebels.

With tensions continuing to rise and the much heralded Geneva peace deal in tatters, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Vitaly Yarema said security agencies would target Kremlin supporters in key eastern cities, driving them from buildings they have occupied for several weeks.

Mr Yarema said:

… Security agencies are working to liquidate all the groups operating in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and the other towns in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

His declaration came after two men, including a pro-Kiev politician, Volodymyr Rybak, were said to have been tortured to death by pro-Russian forces near the flashpoint eastern city of Slaviansk.

A disturbing video has emerged showing Mr Rybak, a member of the Batkivschhyna party led by former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, surrounded by a mob before being manhandled by several men, including a masked man in camouflage. Mr Rybak had attempted to remove the flag of the separatist Donetsk Republic. It is believed both men had been tortured and thrown in a river to drown.

Interim Ukrainian leader Oleskander Turchinov cited the deaths as a reason to relaunch the previously ineffective ‘anti-terror’ operation. He insists that terrorists have effectively taken the whole Donetsk region hostage and have crossed a line by starting to torture and murder Ukrainian patriots. Mr Turchinov says these crimes have been carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation. The aim of the anti-terrorist measures is to protect Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from such violent acts. Armed separatists have already been flushed out of an eastern town on the outskirts of Sviatogorsk as part of this anti-terror drive.

But that brought an immediate rebuke from Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who said Moscow will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked. Mr Lavrov said that Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation and has accused the United States of ‘running the show’ in Ukraine. The Russian foreign minister claimed it was ‘quite telling’ that Kiev had relaunched its anti-terrorist operation during a high profile visit by US vice-president Joe Biden.

Mr Yarema, speaking a day after meeting Mr Biden, said:

… We have obtained the support of the United States… that they will not leave us alone with an aggressor. We hope that in the event of Russian aggression this help will be more substantive.

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk has warned that the risk of eastern regions of Ukraine becoming detached is real. He fears that we will not have to wait long before we see more acts unfolding in Ukraine.

Russian gas giant Gazprom has said it will turn off supplies to Ukraine next month unless Kiev pays its debts. That would have a knock-on effect on deliveries to Europe, because much of the gas transits through Ukrainian territory.

  • 25 April, 2014

As two more pro-Moscow separatists have been killed in shoot-outs with Ukrainian troops, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has warned that the escalating violence would have ‘consequences’.

With some 40,000 Russian soldiers on the border, he did not specify what action he would take, but warned that Ukraine was committing a crime by carrying out a ‘punitive operation’ against pro-Russian insurgents. They have been occupying buildings for several weeks now in ten eastern Ukrainian cities.

The Ukrainian government and many in the West fear Russia is seeking a pretext for a military intervention in eastern Ukraine, where Mr Putin insists he has the right to protect ethnic Russians.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has warned that the situation in Ukraine ‘could quickly spin out of control’.

Within hours of Mr Putin’s warning, Russia began military drills near the Ukrainian border with defence minister Sergei Shoygu declaring: ‘If this military machine is not stopped, it will lead to greater numbers of dead and wounded.’ Ukraine’s acting interim president Oleksandr Turchinov called for Mr Putin to stop the drills, pull his troops away from the border and to end the Russian ‘blackmail’ of the country.

Ukrainian forces are now stationed around the eastern city of Slaviansk in an ostensible preparation for an assault. Stella Khorosheva, a spokesperson for the pro-Russian insurgents, insisted fighters would ‘repel the troops’, and said they are ready to ‘repeat Stalingrad’.

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Foreign Affairs, Government, Politics, Syria, United Nations

Solving the Syrian peace conundrum will be a struggle…

GENEVA PEACE TALKS

It will be a struggle, if not an impossible conundrum, to bring together all the interested parties in Syria’s civil war around the same negotiating table. With peace talks in Geneva due to start tomorrow consider the obstacles to these talks if Iran is present. The Syrian opposition would likely walk out, closely followed by Saudi Arabia. But shun Iran, and the outside power with the greatest influence on events will be freed from any obligation to accept whatever agreement is reached.

It remains uncertain whether all the parties with a vested interest will actually attend the summit. Amid the diplomatic manoeuvring, though, some central and underlying points are worth restating.

Common humanity dictates that all those countries with an interest should, on the face of it, be able to find points of agreement. This should be possible regardless of how their interests differ. For instance, who would deny the need for humanitarian aid to reach the areas sealed off by the regime of Bashar al-Assad? Or, what of his use of barrel bombs – devastating weapons that are packed with nails, petroleum and high explosives.

For Syria’s opposition there is a deeply uncomfortable truth it must accept and come to terms with. Whilst many will not like it, Iran will have to be party to any settlement that is reached. Tehran has sent thousands of troops from its Revolutionary Guard to fight in support of Assad. The Syrian dictator is clearly a leader being kept in power with Iranian backing. Iran’s signature will be needed if any agreement is to work.

All the parties concerned must be aware of the paradox that has stemmed from Assad’s narrative that Syria’s civil war has become a contest between his regime and al-Qaeda, and that Assad himself is the lesser of two evils. The enigma is that Assad has actively encouraged extremists to win influence within the opposition, precisely to confront us with this very choice. That should expose Assad’s derisive cynicism as much as he has become known for his cold-blooded brutality.

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Britain, Government, Iran, United Nations, United States

The Iranian deal exposes concerns but it’s worth the risk…

GENEVA AGREEMENT

Whilst the initial period of the Geneva agreement lasts only six months, and much of what has been agreed is based on trust, there is no doubt that Iran could have been in a position to assemble a nuclear device by next summer. Even a modest hiatus in its atomic preparations should be embraced as it pretty much ensures Israel will take no precipitate action.

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The interim agreement is a good way of testing if Iran can be trusted to keep its word. Tehran has agreed to give UN and IAEA inspectors’ better access to its reprocessing facilities, a promise that will be difficult to fudge or renege on without exposing bad faith or some covert hidden agenda. Critics are right in their assertions that the accord does nothing to dismantle Tehran’s capability to process weapons grade uranium whenever it wants, but securing the right to inspect the regime’s nuclear plants is a necessary and vital concession. This establishes a clear diplomatic tripwire that Tehran crosses at its peril.

There is, though, still much to worry about in this deal. The Iranian economy has been brought to its knees by western sanctions and the regime has been more than desperate to win a respite to mollify internal dissent and unrest. In many ways, President Hassan Rouhani has achieved that objective at comparatively modest cost, and has subsequently strengthened the grip of Iran’s religious dictatorship.

Israeli fears are well known in letting Iran off the hook. But others, too, notably Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, have greeted the Geneva agreement with stony silence. They fear that a diplomatic win for Tehran will strengthen the resolve even further of President Assad in Syria, Iran’s client state and political ally.

On the balance of things, the Geneva deal should be deemed a worthy risk. Tehran has felt the full throttle of western sanctions and the sharpness of its teeth. It must also realise that having offered Iran diplomatic concessions and held Israel in check, President Obama will have no option but to take punitive military action if Iran reneges on its nuclear promises.

The onus in turning this interim deal into something permanent is now on Barack Obama and William Hague, Britain’s Foreign Secretary. Their job will be to tame and dismantle Tehran’s nuclear threat once and for all. Any final agreement must see Iran disband its tens of thousands of uranium processing centrifuges – far more than is needed for any purely civilian atomic energy programme. Iran’s plant for making plutonium – which can only have a military intent – must also be dismantled. It would also make sense for Tehran to dispose of the excessive amounts of low enriched uranium it already possesses – enough to make at least six atomic bombs if those stocks were sufficiently enriched to weapons grade material.

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