Tag Archives: Irish border

Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Ireland, Politics, Society

Brexit always leads back to the issue of the Irish border

BREXIT: UK – IRELAND

ONE of the most persistent myths about Brexit is that the Irish border issue was bounced on to an unsuspecting British prime minister by her cunning – or, perhaps, reckless – Irish counterpart. According to this narrative, Theresa May signed up to the December 2017 agreement that committed the UK to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland without fully understanding the implications because she was desperate for a transition deal.

Yet, what has become clear since is that the necessity of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland matters as much to Theresa May as it does to Leo Varadkar. Just as no Irish prime minister could ever agree to the renewed partition of the island, Mrs May remains determined not to be the British prime minister who presided over the restarting of the Troubles, still less the disintegration of the United Kingdom.

The British government may have been slow – some might say shamefully slow – to appreciate what was at stake, but it is the Irish border issue, rather than the demands of business, that now drives Mrs May’s entire Brexit policy, as expressed in her Chequers proposal.

But the fact that Mrs May is no less sincere than Mr Varadkar in her desire to keep the border open doesn’t make a solution any easier.

As things stand, the Irish border is the single biggest obstacle to an orderly Brexit and the two sides are as far apart as ever. EU officials say that no progress whatsoever has been made since March in negotiations over the backstop that Mrs May agreed in December. The withdrawal agreement was to ensure that no hard border emerged regardless of the future trading relationship between the UK and EU.

The EU insists that there can be no withdrawal agreement without a functioning backstop. The UK is adamant, however, that the problem can be solved only via a framework trading relationship that makes a backstop unnecessary. Hence the Chequers plan for a “facilitated customs arrangement”, which would see the UK pursue a dual-tariff system, collecting EU tariffs on the EU’s behalf for imported goods for the EU market, but charging only UK tariffs on goods destined for the UK market; and a proposed “common rule book” covering trade but not services.

Neither side shows the slightest sign of budging. Mrs May continues to insist that the EU’s backstop suggestion would amount to introducing a border in the Irish Sea, which she says no UK prime minister could accept. Downing Street believes that Brussels is badly underestimating the degree of cross-party support for its position. Officials note that an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill tabled by Jacob Rees-Mogg ruling out a customs border in the Irish Sea was accepted by the House of Commons without a vote. Downing Street argues that the only way to unblock the situation is for Brussels to drop its opposition to Chequers.

EU officials have countered and have said Mrs May is underestimating opposition to her proposals across the European Union. Brussels is also baffled by the UK’s position on the backstop. EU officials have pointed out that some checks already take place at Northern Irish ports and airports and that the EU’s proposal simply would build upon them. Indeed, civil servants in Northern Ireland produced a draft paper this year in what they dubbed a “Channels” approach, under which goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK could pass through either a red or green channel at ports or airports depending on whether those goods were destined for local consumption or export to the EU. Such a system would depend on some level of risk-based checks combined with appropriate documentation, cross-border cooperation and tough penalties for infringements. The paper concludes that such “a pragmatic extension of present reality . . . seems infinitely preferable to a return to the border of the past”. Yet the UK government has blocked publication and refuses to share with Brussels any underlying data on volumes of goods entering Northern Ireland.

Of course, how this situation plays out will in part be determined by how all sides perceive the consequences of a no deal. Both the UK and Ireland would be hit hard economically. The IMF estimates that both would suffer similar hits to GDP of about 4 per cent by 2030, although Ireland’s far higher rates of growth would make such a shock easier to absorb. British officials believe that Mr Varadkar would pay a political price because he has done little to prepare public opinion for the prospect of the EU at some point obliging Dublin to start introducing customs and regulatory checks at the Northern Irish border, something Britain has said it would not do. But while Dublin is convinced it would win any blame game, the bigger risk may be to the UK. After all, the case for allowing the people of Northern Ireland to decide their own fate before any border checks were imposed and as provided for under the Good Friday Agreement would surely be strong. A recent poll published earlier this month suggested that a majority of Northern Irish under such circumstances would vote for reunification by a margin of 52 per cent to 39 per cent.

The risk for Mrs May is that the very outcome that her entire Brexit policy has been seeking to avoid will have come to pass. A political paradox if there ever was one.

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Britain, European Union, Government, Ireland, Politics

Johnson says No 10 hasn’t even tried to solve Irish issue

BREXIT: IRISH BORDER

BORIS JOHNSON has ignited a fresh Brexit row after claiming Theresa May has “not even tried” to solve the Irish border problem.

The former Foreign Secretary said elements in the Government had “ingeniously manipulated” the issue to keep Britain locked closely to the EU and “stop a proper Brexit”.

But supporters of the prime minister said there were “no new ideas” in Mr Johnson’s latest intervention.

Earlier this week, Mr Johnson wrote in his Daily Telegraph column that the Irish border problem was “fixable”, adding: “The scandal is not that we have failed, but that we have not even tried.”

In a scathing attack on Mrs May’s Chequers plan, he branded it a “fix” that will lead to victory for the EU and said that in the negotiations the UK was “lying flat on the canvas”.

He added the Irish government had initially offered pragmatic solutions to the issue, only to withdraw them when the British Government showed no interest. Those in favour of the Chequers plan say that a simple trade deal could not resolve the problems around the Irish border.

A source close to No. 10, said: “The basic premise of the Brexiteers is that there is a free trade deal on the table we can just pick up.

“There is, but it is a Great Britain only deal – we would be walking off the pitch in Northern Ireland. It would mean Northern Ireland staying in the customs union, a customs border down the Irish Sea and a step towards the break-up of the UK. It is not acceptable.”

Brexiteers argue that a Canada-style free trade deal is achievable and that with the right pressure, the EU would accept a technological solution on the Irish border.

Responding to the row, the source insists the country needs “serious leadership with a serious plan” which the prime minister is providing.

The spokesperson added: “The Government’s Brexit White Paper was ‘the only credible and negotiable plan which has been put forward’.”

Boris Johnson resigned from the Government following the Chequers agreement.

ANALYSIS

The 310-mile border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has been one of the most intractable issues in the Brexit negotiations. There are more than 300 crossing points across which goods and people can move freely. But one of the crunch and unresolved issues is what will happen after Brexit, when Northern Ireland – along with the rest of the UK – leaves the EU.

Relatively, there is little trade that exchanges between the north and south of Ireland. Brexiteers point out that trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic makes up 5 per cent of the province’s economy. The figure the other way is just 1.6 per cent.

However, Northern Ireland and the Republic’s trading relationship with Great Britain is much more significant. Trade with Great Britain is some 21 per cent of Northern Irish GDP, and around 12 per cent of all Irish exports go to the UK mainland.

In short, the problem to resolve is how to preserve an open border with different customs regimes and regulations for goods either side of the line. All sides appear to agree there must be no “hard” border – meaning physical barriers and border guards. These were dismantled as part of the peace process and secured by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Northern Ireland’s chief constable has said that any “significant physical infrastructure” would become a target for dissident Republicans.

 

THE EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier says Northern Ireland must stay in the customs union and single market to preserve the open border with the Republic and remove the need for any customs or regulatory checks. The EU has also said that there should be a customs and regulatory border at sea ports on either side of the Irish Sea.

Theresa May finds such a “sea border” unacceptable and this would be a symbolic sign of division between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The prime minister has also been adamant this would be a threat to the “constitutional integrity” of the UK and says, “no UK prime minister could ever agree to it”. Northern Ireland would become – to a large extent – an annexe of the EU, following EU rules. To Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party – on which Mrs May relies for her Commons majority – this is a non-starter.

Mrs May’s answer to the impasse is Chequers. This proposes to keep the whole of the UK in the single market for goods, which deals directly with the problem of different regulatory standards. On customs, she proposes a “facilitated customs arrangement”, with a common customs border. Importers would pay different tariffs demanding on where goods were destined, and that the UK would collect tariffs for the EU. In theory, this would allow the UK to negotiate trade deals with third countries and by cutting tariffs.

 

BORIS JOHNSON insists that the Northern Ireland issue has been “ingeniously manipulated” both by Brussels and No 10 “so as to keep Britain effectively in the customs union and single market”. The Irish border problem is “flexible”, he argues.

Mr Johnson also believes there is a technological solution and that no hard border is necessary. Checks would take place in warehouses or away from the border. There are only 50 large companies that trade across the border, and small traders would be exempted entirely. Other Brexiteers point to highly automated ports such as Felixstowe as providing the likely solutions. The former Foreign Secretary said the Irish government began working on these answers, but the UK Government was “not really interested”.

 

SOME in Ireland have argued a technological solution is possible, including former Irish prime ministers Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny. The tone, though, has changed under Leo Varadkar, who took office in June last year. Since then the Irish have been in lock step with Mr Barnie, and the border has become the central issue of the Brexit talks.

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