Banking, Economic, European Union, Greece

The Greek bailout: Athens is still being betrayed by the EU

ESSAY

AFTER several years in which Greece was kept afloat by the munificence of the eurozone countries, Athens was trumpeted by many media outlets this week as being free at last from an EU bailout programme worth 61.9billion euros (£55billion) in emergency loans. That was part of an eight-year rescue package worth £258billion.

Despite the reports of economic privation and the dark clouds over Greece finally lifting, the reality is that Greece is far from saved from pecuniary disaster. The harsh economic medicine forced on the country by the EU and Germany in particular as conditions of the bailout has resulted in death by a thousand cuts.

The country’s once elegant capital has become one of the most depressing and untidiest cities in Western Europe, a city that is now in terrible decay. Shops on once booming boulevards are shuttered, while heavy machines and cranes stand idle over the shells of unfinished buildings. Much of Athens is covered in ugly graffiti. Even the awnings around Greece’s most revered ancient site the Parthenon, on the Athenian Acropolis, is covered in unsightly painted drawings.

The hardships and deprivations are everywhere – all the more heart-breaking in that this downward spiral had been caused by European leaders who were masquerading as people bearing gifts. Most Athenians are struggling to make ends meet.

 

HOSPITAL doctors, for example, have seen their monthly pay cut to just over a thousand pounds a month. It is only through social conscience and the love of their country that has kept some of them in Athens.

Some 70,000 highly skilled professionals including doctors, dentists and pharmacists have left the country as part of a broader Grexodus of 500,000 people.

The best way for any country to emerge from financial crisis is to increase its national income so that tax revenues rise and global debts can be paid off. But during the last eight years, Greece has moved in precisely the opposite direction. National output has slumped by an astonishing 25 per cent. The result is adult unemployment of 20 per cent. Even more shocking and socially disruptive, some 40 per cent of 18 to 25-year olds are out of work.

Without any income for the young, it is now commonplace for three generations of the same family to be forced to live cheek by jowl in the same crowded apartments. The fact is that the austerity imposed by the eurocrats has ruined Greece and done nothing to relive it of its monstrous level of debt.

It has snuffed out entrepreneurship, as well as created a poisonous political legacy where a far-Left Marxist party headed by Alexis Tsipras rules with the support of fanatical politicians on the populist Right.

The end of the EU’s bailout programme may technically mean that Greece can return to the international markets to borrow again, but any notion that the world’s commercial bankers and financiers will be queuing at Athens’ overcrowded and dilapidated airport to lend – and pour good money after bad – is a fantasy.

After all, the country is still sitting on a debt pile of 289billion euros (£258billion) which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) puts at 191 per cent, or almost twice the nation’s total annual output.

To place that in context, it is more than two times the ratio of Britain’s national debt to output, which after a decade of UK cuts to public services and surging tax incomes as the economy has grown is now, thankfully, on a downward path.

Not only that, Greece’s stricken financial system is currently being kept afloat by short-term cash assistance of some 40billion euros (£35.6billion) per month from the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank. Without this help, which is akin to that provided by the Bank of England to the British banks at the height of the financial crisis a decade ago, the four biggest Greek lenders would be effectively bankrupt.

Together the bad loans on the books of these banks – Piraeus, Alpha, Euro Bank and National Bank of Greece – amount to 101billion euros (£90billion) or 50 per cent of the total, the highest level of any country in the European Union. Indeed the banks, the lifeblood of any Western economy, are so indebted that they cannot lend any more.

 

WHICH means the small and medium-sized enterprises that are the country’s business bedrock cannot get the finance they need to carry on and invest. Nor do ordinary consumers find it possible to obtain credit.

This desolate financial scenario is a direct result of the austerity conditions demanded by Brussels eurocrats and German central bankers. Over the last eight years successive Greek governments have been forced to attend no fewer than 95 meetings at which the most stringent measures have been imposed on them.

The results for the Greek people have been nothing short of catastrophic.

Yet in their determination to preserve the greater political project of the eurozone and the EU, and to keep Greece as their client state, Brussels and German politicians have been utterly ruthless.

In spite of personal appeals from the IMF’s euro-supporting managing-director Christine Lagarde to forgive Greece its debt burden and allow the country to be given a fresh start, the eurofanatics have been unrelenting in their determination to keep the debt anvil hanging around its neck.

Greece is in an armlock it cannot escape because of a combination of its debt burden and the fact that its membership of the eurozone means it can longer devalue its currency. And the EU and Germans are determined to keep it that way to save their precious euro.

So, despite the joyous and uplifting media reports about the bailout this week, be in no doubt that this Greek tragedy is very far from being over.

 

GREECE should ditch the euro as it emerges from eight years of austerity caused by punishing EU bailouts.

The country also should have been afforded the right to have gone bankrupt at the height of the eurozone crisis instead of having been forced into a strict rescue package dictated by Brussels and Germany.

The EU pushed the country into accepting massive loans to save German and French banks from collapse. Greece’s creditors effectively turned the country into a dead colony that had been left devastated by fiscal austerity, with citizens having endured years of pain and misery.

Greece has now existed the final stage of an eight-year, £258billion bailout programme, which has left Athens crippled by soaring unemployment.

On the face of it, what has really changed? Greece’s state debts have not become lower, but higher still. The state is still destitute, private citizens have become poorer, companies are liquidating at an unprecedented rate, and its gross national product has decreased by 25 per cent.

The bailout was intended only for German and French banks who had, against all reasonable logic, loaned vast sums of money to the Greek state and oligarchy. As for the Greek banks and state, they should not have been saved. The country should have been allowed in declaring insolvency, to have suffered the consequences but then being allowed to have picked themselves up and by moving on – something these huge bailouts prohibited.

In a television interview, Yanis Varoufakis, a former minister who served in the Left-wing Syriza government, said: “It was absolutely necessary that the country be prepared to return to its national currency”. Unable to pay its debts, Greece faced a so-called “Grexit” from the eurozone in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The economy has now returned to modest growth, but one in five Greeks are unemployed, average incomes have dropped by more than a third and taxes have rocketed.

Critics have argued that Greece would have fared better outside the euro, enabling it to carry out a range of measures including devaluing its currency and lowering interest rates to make the economy more competitive.

EU figures have this week tried to paint the bailout programme as a success, with European Council president Donald Tusk saying: “You did it! With huge efforts and European solidarity, you seized the day.”

Rather, the EU put Greece into a permanent coma and prefer to call it stability.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Brexit: Preparations for a ‘no-deal’

BREXIT

BRITAIN will recognise some EU regulations in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Government says this is to ensure that the country does not grind to a halt.

Ministerial papers setting out what will happen if the UK leaves without a deal make clear that Britain will adopt a “flexible” approach to ensure EU medicines, automotive parts and chemicals are still available in the UK.

Several of the papers which are due to be published on Thursday say the “permissive” nature of the plans are based on an undercurrent of “project no fear”.

Previously, concerns have been raised that the M20, for example, could be turned into a giant lorry parking bay because of the anticipated huge disruption to cross-channel trade caused by the EU in the event of a no-deal.

However, away from customs, the documents offer a constructive way for Britain to continue trading with the EU after a no-deal Brexit. On medicines which are made in the UK, the papers indicate that the UK regulator would take steps to keep market access for importers open to avoid any disruption.

But this approach will leave the UK open to claims that it is giving up yet more negotiating strength by agreeing to accept EU goods without ensuring British goods will be accepted on the Continent in a reciprocal fashion.

EU exit talks have restarted in Brussels between Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. Mr Raab, who will give a speech on Thursday, will set out the Government’s plans for a no-deal.

Over the last few days, the Brexit Secretary said: “It is the responsibility of the EU to ensure its consumers and businesses are not harmed.

“The UK Government believes this is best achieved by both sides taking a non-disruptive approach and will be encouraging cooperation with the EU on no-deal planning.

“Securing a deal is still by far the most likely outcome, but we want to make sure that we clearly set out the steps that people, businesses and public services need to take in the unlikely event that we don’t reach an agreement.

“It’s the responsible thing for any government to do, to mitigate the risks and make sure the UK is ready to make a success of Brexit.”

Each of the 84 papers to be released follow the same format, opening with remarks that a “no-deal” Brexit is unlikely, but that “we are a responsible government and we should be prepared”.

The papers – which will be published in batches – then set out “how it works now” and “how it works in a no-deal scenario”, with examples given to allow companies to prepare.

Government insiders have described the papers as “sensible, proportionate, and part of a common-sense approach to ensure stability whatever the outcome of talks.”

A source said: “The truth is in some sectors there won’t be much change, it is a mixture… It is not a case of ‘worse for us and better for them’.”

Mr Raab will outline in his speech how the Government will mitigate the potential risks of leaving the EU without a deal and ensure continuity and stability for businesses and the general public.

 

THIS is the week when we will finally discover what the consequences will be in the event of the Brexit talks failing: the Government’s no-deal papers are to be published on Thursday. Project Fear is largely responsible for any public panic, but the Conservatives it must be said have made things worse. By threatening that the only options are Chequers or no-deal (which is untrue), that have cast no-deal as a cliff-edge rather than a challenge we can handle. And the Government’s rhetoric of doom hasn’t even been clear in its target: is it Britain that should fear more, or Europe?

It would be very rough for both sides, which is why no-deal ought to be avoided as far as possible. But, for many, a no-deal is also a reality. If Britain doesn’t get what it wants – if it is told it must adhere to EU laws, open borders, restrictions on trade and diminished sovereignty – then it must walk away. That warning was clearly laid out in the Conservative Party manifesto.

The only mystery is why the Government has waited for so long to prepare properly and openly for a no-deal outcome. It should have promised that there would be agreements in place on such necessities as medicines and air-travel, or that the technology would be ready to deal with customs and goods movement. It should also have emphasised that whatever short-term hit the UK takes to its economy, in the long-run it may well be Europe that suffers the greater damage, while the UK reorientates towards global trade. And if there is no-deal, we are under no obligation to pay £39billion as a divorce bill. In such circumstances, Brussels should wave goodbye to our cash.

Britain isn’t the only one accused of playing with fire. Brussels might attempt to even turn defence into a bargaining chip. Defence is one area where the EU clearly needs us more than we need them. The Government’s no-deal rhetoric should ram this point home on all fronts: Brussels would be unbelievably stupid to drive away a partner as rich and influential as the UK.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Scotland, Society

Treasonous myths of the Brexiteers’

BREXIT

JUST as an alliance with the EU is important to the UK, European immigrants are also vital to the British economy.

Many people will remember the insidious campaign during the EU referendum debate in 2016 of Nigel Farage standing in front of a poster showing a queue of refugees with the slogan: ‘Breaking point: The EU has failed us all’ – an image that was rightly compared to Nazi propaganda – while others were allowed to peddle the myth that EU immigration had helped to cause austerity. It must surely be a matter of profound regret among leaders of the Remain campaign that they allowed the effects of immigration to be so utterly misrepresented in the run-up to the Brexit vote.

Since that fateful day, various employers appear to have woken up to the serious risks posed by a shortage of labour if the UK leaves the Single Market and ditches freedom of movement (as Theresa May insists will happen).

The latest sign of trouble comes from our schools, with the number of teachers from other EU countries – like Greece, Poland, Spain and Ireland – applying to work in Scotland “falling off a cliff”.

In 2017, some 186 teachers from the EU sought registration with the General Teaching Council for Scotland, but so far this year just 14 have done so. This comes at a time of teacher shortages with some 700 vacancies in Scotland at the start of the year.

Nine out of ten UK employers report they are struggling to recruit staff with the skills they need, threatening the ability of the UK economy to compete. Wages could rise as employers are forced to compete for a smaller pool of available workers, but this may prove to be a short-lived boon if firms with fewer skilled staff and higher costs start to lose business and trade to their EU rivals.

The economic chaos that could be caused by a no-deal Brexit could further exacerbate what is already an alarming situation.

What is equally important is the attitude adopted by our elected politicians towards the EU, described recently by President Trump as a “foe” while he cosied up to Vladimir Putin of Russia.

In a further twist and wholly unacceptable language, Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman has claimed the Treason Act should be amended to apply to “those in future actively working undemocratically against the UK through extreme EU loyalty” because, “like extreme jihadis”, they were “seeking to destroy or undermine the British state”.

We should have welcomed immigrants to this country by freely acknowledging the massive contribution they have made to our society, but instead we have turned them into scapegoats for austerity. What a pitifully poor and degrading accusation.

Now there is a serious risk of another dangerous myth gaining a foothold in the public’s imagination – that the friendly democracies of the EU are in some way our enemy.


BRITAIN will be unable to forge a new trade deal with fast-growing Pacific countries unless it makes a clean break with the EU, a report has warned.

The Government’s White Paper on Brexit says the UK will “potentially seek accession” to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after leaving the EU.

The 11-member organisation, which aims to eliminate 98 per cent of all tariffs, is seen as a major potential growth market.

But a study by the Policy Exchange thinktank warns that Theresa May’s Chequers deal could make membership impossible.

The controversial deal commits the UK to following a “common rulebook” with the EU on goods and farm products, limiting the room for manoeuvre with trade negotiators.

The report warns that joining the partnership would require the UK to have more flexibility over its regulations.

Report author Geoff Raby, a former Australian ambassador to the World Trade Organisation, said: “By aligning UK policy to EU policy on agriculture and manufactured goods, the White Paper will constrain the opportunities that the UK has to pursue an independent trade policy.

“Without being able to participate fully in the agricultural and manufactured goods dimension it is most unlikely that the UK would be able to join, but if it did it would not be able to get the full benefits.”

The Chequers deal has caused uproar in the Conservative Party and prompted the resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis.

The PM has insisted that it will not constrain the UK’s future trade policy. She told MPs this month: “We specifically looked at whether the plan that we were putting forward would enable us to accede to the comprehensive and progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and it will.”

But the report threatens to reopen the row over the potential impact on trade of the Chequers agreement. Donald Trump has warned that the restrictions would “kill” hopes of a US trade deal – although he rowed back following talks with Mrs May.

The CPTPP’s members include Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico and New Zealand, with South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan among those set to join.

Policy Exchange chairman Alexander Downer, the former Australian high commissioner to the UK, said Britain would be “a welcome addition” to the bloc, which would give it “unfettered access to many markets that represent a large part of the future of the world’s economy”.

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