Category Archives: Economic

Britain, Economic, European Court, European Union, Government, Legal

Free-trade deal possible post-Brexit following landmark EU court ruling

FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

ECJ

The court ruled that Brussels has trade negotiating competence over all goods and services.

Britain’s ambition to sign a quick Free Trade Agreement with the European Union after Brexit has received a significant boost after a landmark ruling by the European Court of Justice handed expanded trade negotiation powers to Brussels.

The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas – including financial services and transport – the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.

Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.

“The Court of justice says all services – even transport – can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”

In the ruling, the ECJ was asked to decide whether the new-generation bilateral EU-Singapore trade deal should be treated as a so-called ‘mixed’ agreement – that requires ratification by national parliaments – or could be agreed by a qualified majority vote of member states.

The court ruled that the EU did not have exclusive competence to conclude the Singapore deal, but said that only in two narrow areas – namely non-direct foreign investment and the investor-state dispute resolution mechanisms – did it need to seek ratification by national parliaments.

By contrast, the court said the EU did have competence to conclude agreements without ratification across the great majority of the Singapore agreement – contradicting parts of a previous opinion by the court’s advocate-general.

The court ruled that Brussels has trade negotiating competence over all goods and services.

FTA2jpg

Definition, meaning and purpose of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Areas covered by EU competence include all goods and services, “including all transport services”, as well as intellectual property rights, competition policy, labour and environmental standards and the rules relating to exchange of information.

Legal and trade experts said the ruling had potentially massive implication for Brexit if the UK formulated its own FTA to avoid investment provisions and investor-state dispute mechanisms, relying on alternative arrangements such as bilateral investment treaties and WTO panels.

“This is the most significant ECJ case on EU trade policy for twenty years and has huge ramifications for any UK-EU FTA,” said Nicole Kar, head of international trade at Linklaters, the law firm.

“In policy terms, now the UK government will want to consider whether it moderates its ambition for the UK-EU FTA to those matters where there is exclusive competence in order to secure agreement through EU Member State governments by qualified majority voting.”

If Britain took a more expansive approach, Ms Kar warned, it risked any FTA getting mired in member state politics as happened last year when the regional Walloonian parliament of Belgium held the EU-Canada trade deal to ransom.

This problem arises because some EU member states, like Belgium, have domestic law that requires local parliaments to sign off on trade deals before they can be ratified by at a national level.

Allie Renison, head of EU and trade policy at the Institute of Directors, said the court ruling was to be welcomed and would make it easier for the EU to conclude deals “without fear of as many hold-ups from national and sub-national legislatures”.

“How this affects Brexit negotiations will depend on whether the final trade agreement includes investment provisions or not, although neither the UK or EU has expressed much interest in this to date,” she added.

“It’s important to remember that any eventual UK-EU trade agreement would not be about opening up each other’s markets in controversial areas, but trying to limit the amount of disruption to trade, and so it is unlikely to encounter the same resistance from other EU countries once concluded by the Commission.”

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Economic, Government, Health, Society

IT systems in the NHS are pitifully weak. It must get on top of cyber-crime

RANSOMWARE

Ransomware

The message that appears if encryption occurs.

Two days ago, the NHS was hit by a major cyber-attack using ransomware. Computer screens suddenly announced that files and data were unavailable unless the user paid a fee. In some Health Board Trusts, phones stopped working, too; patients were advised not to go to A&E, and the full effect of this attack will not be known until this week when many employees may find that their computers will not function. The virus is worming its way through networks that could yet reap much more havoc. While state organisations like the NHS have many questions to answer, including the pitiful support they have given to their IT systems – including the running of out-of-support Windows XP systems – holding the nation’s healthcare hostage in this way is an unconscionable criminal act. It is also a wake-up call to the British state. Our newfound reliance upon electronic communications leaves the country vulnerable to extortion.

Of course, it is important to keep pace with technological change, especially if it promises to save money and streamline record keeping. But putting so many eggs in one basket does incur risk – and there have been many warnings before now that the NHS is struggling to keep things in good order. Last month, Barts Health, England’s largest trust, had to cancel at least 136 operations and “hundreds” of chemotherapy sessions after its IT systems went down; it also suffered a ransomware attack in January. It is feared that some trusts are continuing to use outdated software that might be more exposed to attack.

This is why patients have often expressed nervousness about the reliance upon NHS databases, particularly the notion of a national one. No matter how many assurances are made to the public that such arrangements are airtight, the criminals always seem to find a way to get in. The solution is obviously to tighten security; equally it is imperative that users take care – a system is only as strong as its most fallible point. Either way, it is now up to the security services to act and act fast. Cyber-crime – which has previously hit companies such as TalkTalk – costs the economy billions and puts lives at risk. The Government has to get on top of it. It has failed in its duty of care by taking necessary measures in protecting the most sensitive of information.

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Britain, Economic, Government, Politics, Society

Tax policy and the hidden truths

BRITAIN

Tax Return

For various reasons it has suited both the Labour and Conservative parties not to have tax policy turned into a central issue in the election campaign.

Under a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn a significant rise in public spending would be envisaged. The party leadership, too, has made no secret of its intention to raise taxes on the better-off – on those, as the saying goes, ‘who have the broader shoulders’. But, the definition of broad shoulder has, for some time now, been left conveniently undefined, while the resort to higher borrowing, the mantra of any socialist party, is unlikely to assuage voters after the calamitous borrowing and debt of recent years that has necessitated such a lengthy period of austerity and spending constraint.

The Conservative Party have also been markedly reluctant to be drawn into the discussion on tax, having long symbolised itself as the party of low tax. While it may claim to have lower spending commitments than Labour this does not necessarily mean that taxes will not rise. Chancellor Philip Hammond, for one, has made known his desire for greater financial flexibility and for the party to drop the ‘tax lock’ pledge. Ultimately, this begs the question of what Conservative tax policy is now.

Policies of taxation are especially sensitive at this point in time given the background of a slowing economy and forecasts of a deepening downturn. There have been signs over the last few days that the election battle – largely focused till now on the personalities of the respective leaders – is swinging back towards more practical and tangible issues.

Both parties have pledged not to increase the 20 per cent rate of VAT until 2022. As matters stand, though, the total tax burden is set to rise to its highest level in 30 years – even were the tax lock to stay in place. The March Budget stipulated that the tax burden will rise to 37.2 per cent of national income by 2019-20. And with overall government debt approaching 90 per cent of national income, voters deserve more informative answers on future tax policy than the rhetoric currently on offer.

The likelihood is that continuing low growth for the foreseeable future and a worryingly high level of government debt will act as a powerful restraint for whoever wins the election: any increase in government spending will have to be found from improved productivity and efficiency gains. That is not a particularly comfortable message to portray for any party aspiring to be the next government. It is, however, an unavoidable truth whatever the political rhetoric may claim.

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