Category Archives: Economic

Banking, Britain, Economic, European Union, Financial Markets, Government

Lloyd’s Banking Group: A return to profit but there are still too many unresolved issues…

UK BANKING MARKET

Lloyds reported last Wednesday a return to profit in the first half of 2013. There has been an air of quiet satisfaction both in the City and in Whitehall following the banking calamity of 2008.

The Government is now preparing for a sale of its 39 per cent stake in the lender. For the first time since 2008, the bank’s chief executive, Antonio Horta Osorio, is considering paying shareholders a dividend. Expectations of a dividend payment sent the share price up to 74p following the disclosure of the bank’s half-yearly profits.

But the market shouldn’t be so optimistic. A swathe of unresolved issues surrounds Lloyds Banking Group, not to mention the structure and impending reforms of the wider UK banking system.

Ministers in Whitehall have spoken about getting the best possible value for taxpayers from the sale of its stake in Lloyds, but suspicions remain that they will offload the bank at a price that effectively short-changes the public.

Selling above 61p will mean the national debt falling, below that price it rises. The attractiveness of a quick sale at the current market price for a Chancellor who has been embarrassed by his inability to bring down the national debt on his promised timetable should be obvious.

The price the previous government paid for its £20bn in shares was 74p a share. That amounts to being the true ‘break-even’ price, and sales below that should not be countenanced. Even at that price it is meaningless to suggest a ‘profit’ because one should only think what returns the state could have received for that £20bn investment elsewhere. The accounting is important to understand.

Then there is the matter of Lloyds’ lending to the real economy. The bank says it increased its net supply of credit to small firms by 5 per cent in the first half of the year. Financial analysts will hope that is accurate because the most recent figures from the Bank of England (which only go to March) tell a strikingly different story. They suggest Lloyds has contracted its lending to households and firms by some £6.6bn since last August, while availing itself of £3bn of cheap funding from the Bank of England.

And what about the size issue? Following the disastrous merger with HBOS in 2009, Lloyds is enormous. Lloyd’s Bank now accounts for twice as much of the loan stock to home and businesses as the next biggest bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland. The size of Lloyd’s balance sheet will fall next year when 630 branches are floated off following an EU directive, but the bank will still be excessively large. UK firms and borrowers need a broad range of credit providers, not a market dominated by a few such as RBS, Lloyds and Barclays.

Lloyds has increased its provision for the mis-selling of payment protection insurance. This is a reminder of how just egregious the bank (and other high street banks) behaved towards its customers in the boom years. Leaving this cartel untouched would risk this kind of abuse happening again.

A return to profit by Lloyd’s is good news. But we need a bank – and a wider banking system – that is able to sustainably serve the needs of the real economy.

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Banking, Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government

Lending to small and medium sized firms on course to hit a 7-year low…

BANK LENDING

Bank lending to businesses is projected to slump to its lowest level for seven years, a report from Ernst & Young has warned.

UK banks will lend £422 billion to firms this year – the lowest amount since 2006. This is well below the £575 billion lent in 2008 before the financial crisis.

The figures from the Ernst & Young Item Club underline the crisis facing many companies as banks starve them of the funds they need to grow and prosper. The problem poses a serious threat to the economic recovery.

The Item Club report warns that lending will not return to its pre-recession peak until 2017.

Financial analysts fear small and medium sized firms are struggling to get the funds they need to grow, or by taking on staff that will be needed to drive the economy.

The further fall in lending this year will disappoint officials at both the Treasury and the Bank of England, who launched the £80 billion Funding for Lending scheme last summer.

This scheme was intended to increase the flow of cheap loans for households and businesses.

While there is evidence that mortgage lending is increasing, particularly to first-time buyers, there is little to suggest that small firms are getting access to the money they urgently need.

The Item Club report also showed that around £200 million was lent last year to small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs, through ‘peer to peer’ lending – which allows people to lend directly to businesses.

An economic adviser to the Item Club, said:

… We expect peer to peer lending to grow rapidly in the next few years as demand for funding from SMEs outstrips supply from the banks.

The report does predict, though, that bank lending will pick up as the economy recovers, rising to £452 billion next year, £497 billion in 2015, £545 billion in 2016 and £602 billion in 2017.

A spokesperson for the accountancy firm Ernst & Young, said:

… Corporate lending won’t increase enough in 2013 to compensate for the dire first half of the year. We expect it to pick up in 2014, raising hopes that UK companies may invest some of the cash back into the wider economy.

… The banks should be able to increase their credit supply – regulation permitting.

And, despite the recent pick-up in the economy interest rates look set to remain flat lined. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, which will meet on Thursday, is widely expected to peg interest rates at 0.5 per cent for a 54th month in a row.

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Banking, Britain, Economic, Financial Markets, Government, United States

Libor handed over to the Americans…

BLOW FOR THE CITY OF LONDON

The owner of the New York stock exchange has been handed responsibility for setting controversial LIBOR interest rates in a move slammed by MPs as a ‘tremendous blow’ to the City of London.

Earlier this week the Treasury confirmed that the key role will pass from lobby group the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) to transatlantic NYSE Euronext from early next year.

The process, which will still take place in London, will be overseen by City watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

But while FCA head Martin Wheatley hailed this as ‘an important step in enhancing the integrity of LIBOR’, John Mann, a member of the Treasury Select Committee, blasted the decision.

The Labour MP said it was further evidence that British banks are being unfairly singled out for rigging LIBOR interest rates – while, he says, their US counterparts escape punishment.

He said:

… This is a tremendous blow to the prestige of the City of London and sends out the message that you can’t trust the British.

… What the Americans have been doing is selectively picking out British banks that have done wrong and selectively ignoring the same scandals that have been committed by their own banks… The Chancellor has failed to stick up for the City. French and Germans will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of stealing other financial markets.

LIBOR – The London Interbank Offered Rate – is a key benchmark rate which is used to set mortgages for millions of homeowners and is linked to $300 trillion of financial contracts around the world.

The BBA was criticised for being asleep on the job as a number of banks, including Barclays, the Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, routinely rigged rates under its nose.

This culminated in huge fines for these banks and the decision by an independent review headed by Mr Wheatley to strip the BBA of its role.

The decision to award the contract to the New York Stock Exchange-owner followed a bidding war orchestrated by an independent committee, headed by former journalist Baroness Hogg – now a senior independent director at the Treasury. NYSE Euronext, which owns the pan-European Euronext market and will pay £1 for BBA Libor Ltd’s assets, said it is ‘uniquely placed’ to restore the international credibility of LIBOR. BBA has refused to reveal how many of its employees work on LIBOR.

Failed bidders are understood to include financial information provider Thomson Reuters, which has calculated LIBOR on behalf of the BBA since 2005.

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COMMENT

The British Bankers’ Association, a wildly discredited organisation given its mishandling of LIBOR, the interest rate that sets the price for trillions of dollars of transactions across the world, has much to answer for. Its sclerotic behaviour under the BBA’s previous leadership failed to respond with any willpower to criticisms made by the Federal Reserve. Had it done so, it is possible that the LIBOR scandal – which wiped out the top management at Barclays – might never have happened.

Not that the Bank of England has totally clean hands in any of this. It may have had no direct responsibility for keeping Britain’s markets honest, but it can be accused of being lackadaisical in making sure the BBA acted on Fed criticisms and forced through reforms designed to erect Chinese walls between LIBOR setters and traders so that opportunities for rigging were stamped out.

Paradoxically, the Libor business that NYSE Euronext will inherit has shrunk dramatically. Post the Great Recession the LIBOR market has been in deep slumber because banks are so distrusting of each other, especially in the eurozone.

It’s possible that among the reasons for awarding the LIBOR contracts to NYSE Euronext rather than the London Stock Exchange is that London’s bid came in association with Thomson Reuters, the financial institution which set the reference rate under the old broken regime.

Thomson Reuters’ independence has been challenged recently by the New York State Attorney Eric Schneiderman who is critical of an arrangement under which premium customers get privileged access – a two second advantage – to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. At a time when the City is under siege from Brussels over a variety of issues, it does seem bizarre that we should allow an interest rate market that grew in London in the 1970s, to escape US tax measures, to head back across the Atlantic.

And while several European banks, including Barclays, RBS and UBS, have paid a heavy price from US regulators for LIBOR manipulation, so far there has not been a single successful prosecution or settlement with an American bank. That in itself should raise many previously unanswered curious questions, as LIBOR setting now moves to the United States.

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