Britain, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Theresa May’s vision for post-Brexit Britain

UNITED KINGDOM

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Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on the UK leaving the European Union.

Intro: In a speech to ambassadors at London’s Lancaster House the British Prime Minister delivered a blueprint to free the UK from Brussels. The PM said that quitting will let us rediscover our role as a trading power.

EVER SINCE the UK decided to exit the European Union following last June’s referendum result, the Prime Minister, Theresa May, has continually rejected the case for keeping Britain tied to the EU single market. Mrs May has pledged instead to ‘rediscover’ our role as a “great, global, trading nation”.

The Prime Minister has said that membership of the single market “would to all intents and purposes mean not leaving the EU at all”, owing to its rules on free movement and accepting the supremacy of the European Court of Justice.

To the constant fury of Remainers, the prime minister has insisted this would not be acceptable to a British public which voted to retake control of its own destiny. She has also ruled out staying in the linked customs union on its current terms – having previously said that this would prevent us striking trade deals with the rest of the world. Mrs May insists she will look for a deal which allows goods such as car parts to move freely in and out of Britain without bureaucracy and customs checks, but without the onerous rules of the current agreement.

Speaking in the last few days to ambassadors at London’s Lancaster House the PM said her overall aim was tariff-free trade with Europe and cross-border trade that is “as frictionless as possible”.

She added: “We will pursue a bold and ambitious free trade agreement with the European Union. This agreement should allow for the freest possible trade in goods and services between Britain and the EU’s member states. It should give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate within European markets – and let European businesses do the same in Britain.”

She went on: “I want us to be a truly global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike.

“I want Britain to be what we have the potential, talent and ambition to be. A great, global trading nation that is respected around the world and strong, confident and united at home. The result of the referendum was not a decision to turn inward and retreat from the world. Because Britain’s history and culture is profoundly internationalist. June the 23rd was not the moment Britain chose to step back from the world. It was the moment we chose to build a truly global Britain.”

The decision not to remain inside the existing customs union was seen as a victory for Boris Johnson, who has been fighting a Cabinet battle with Chancellor Philip Hammond.

Allies of the Foreign Secretary have also pointed to Mrs May’s declaration that Britain will no longer “contribute huge sums to the EU budget”.

Mrs May said: “There may be some specific European programmes in which we might want to participate. If so, and this will be for us to decide, it is reasonable that we should make an appropriate contribution. But the principle is clear: the days of Britain making vast contributions to the European Union every year will end.”

The issue is of huge importance to Mr Johnson and other Cabinet ministers who campaigned to leave based on no longer sending £10billion net every year to Brussels. On immigration, the PM reiterated that retaking control of our borders will be a red-line in talks with Brussels but has stopped short of spelling out the full details.

She is expected to opt for a visa system which reduces the number of low-skilled workers pouring in from the EU, while still giving ready access to the UK to students, tourists and skilled workers. Mrs May said: “We will always want immigration… but the message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe. And that is what we will deliver.

To ease the nerves of business, Mrs May has said she was willing to consider a period of transition when the two-year Brexit talks are complete – allowing new policies on the likes of immigration and trade to be phased in gradually. No time limit has been put on how long this would last but officials have previously said this would not be allowed to drag on for years. Mrs May told ambassadors: “I do not mean that we will seek some form of unlimited transitional status, in which we find ourselves stuck forever in some kind of permanent political purgatory. That would not be good for Britain, but nor do I believe it would be good for the EU.”

On security, the PM has stressed Britain’s “unique intelligence capabilities” in what is likely to be perceived as an implied urge to the EU to remain close to the UK. However, she has stopped short of saying defence and security co-operation would be on the negotiating table.

Mrs May has warned MPs to remain “disciplined”, by not leaking stories to the media or demanding too many details on the Government’s negotiations when they begin. My job, she said, was to get the “right deal for Britain”. That, she says, “is what I intend to do”.

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The UK Government is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March 2017. This will start the two year negotiation process for Britain’s departure from the EU.

THE UK’S BLUEPRINT IN BEING FREED FROM BRUSSELS

Theresa May’s ambitious roadmap and objectives for Brexit:

. CERTAINTY

She said that we will provide certainty where we can. The same rules and laws will apply on the day after Brexit as they did before. And the Government will put the final deal to a vote in both Houses of Parliament.

(Can she deliver?) By keeping in place – at least initially – all EU laws, Mrs May will provide a degree of continuity and confidence for business. However, as she freely admits, she cannot control the outcome of the negotiations. Parliament is highly likely to approve any deal because the alternative will be a chaotic Brexit.

. OUR OWN LAWS

She said that we will take back control of our laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain. Because we will not have truly left the EU if we are not in control of our own laws.

(Can she deliver?) Adopting the ‘take back control’ slogan of the Leave campaign, Mrs May repeated her promise to end rule by EU law and judges in Luxembourg, and restore power to Parliament and domestic courts. Without this there is no Brexit. A firm red line.

. A UNITED KINGDOM

She said that a stronger Britain demands that we strengthen the precious union between the four nations of the UK.

(Can she deliver?) By consulting devolved administrations, Mrs May is seeking to reassure voters in the nations of the UK which didn’t vote for Brexit that she is listening to their concerns.

. THE IRISH BORDER

Mrs May said that we will work to deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the Common Travel Area with the Republic, while protecting the integrity of the United Kingdom’s immigration system.

(Can she deliver?) Both countries want to maintain the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic without opening a back door into Britain. But that is likely to mean UK border checks at Irish ports and airports.

. CONTROL OF IMMIGRATION

The message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe. Mrs May says that is what we will deliver.

(Can she deliver?) Ending free movement is a red line, but Mrs May left open when it will end, what system will replace it and details of any transition deal. The PM wants highly skilled EU migrants, and doctors and nurses, but will she compromise on unskilled migrants to get a better trade deal?

. EU NATIONALS AND BRITISH EXPATS

She said that we want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.

(Can she deliver?) Likely to be agreed early on, as long as the EU doesn’t want to haggle. Last year Mrs May offered to settle on the rights of three million EU nationals in the UK, and 1.2million Brits on the continent in advance of formal talks – but Angela Merkel refused.

. WORKERS’ RIGHTS

The PM said that not only will the Government protect the rights of workers’ set out in European legislation, but we will build on them.

(Can she deliver?) Mrs May is determined to at least preserve protections for workers on low and middle incomes – many of whom voted for Brexit. Could come under threat if there is no deal, and Britain slashes taxes and regulation to attract business.

. TRADE WITH EUROPE

As a priority, she said, we will pursue a bold and ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. This should allow for the freest possible trade in goods and services. But she was also clear that it cannot mean membership of the single market.

(Can she deliver?) This is the crux of the negotiation. Britain will leave the single market, and with it EU laws and free movement. Instead Mrs May wants tariff-free trade and a customs agreement to stop goods being held up at ports. She ruled out ‘vast contributions’ to the EU budget, and the only money going to Brussels will be for particular programmes or agencies like Europol. Her huge gamble is to threaten to walk away if the EU attempts to punish Britain.

. GLOBAL TRADE

Mrs May said that a global Britain must be free to strike trade agreements with countries from outside the EU too. But she also wants tariff-free trade with Europe and cross-border trade that is as frictionless as possible.

(Can she deliver?) The PM wants deals with non-EU countries including the United States. That would be impossible from inside the customs union, which imposes a uniform tariff on all non-EU countries. It would also make Trade Secretary Liam Fox’s job redundant.

. SCIENCE AND INNOVATION

Mrs May said that we have a proud history of leading and supporting cutting-edge research and innovation. We will also welcome agreement to continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research and technology initiatives.

(Can she deliver?) Unlikely to be an obstacle to any deal. Much collaboration between academics takes place outside formal EU structures, and so will continue unimpeded.

. CRIME AND TERRORISM

She said that all of us in Europe face the challenge of cross-border crime, a deadly terrorist threat, and the dangers presented by hostile states. All of us share interests and values in common, values we want to see projected around the world.

(Can she deliver?) Security and intelligence cooperation and defence cooperation cannot be a formal bargaining chip, but without making it one, Mrs May reminds EU allies of Britain’s importance as an ally in fighting terrorism and that the UK holds an important status as a military power.

. A SMOOTH EXIT

Mrs May said that it is in no one’s interests for there to be a cliff-edge for business or a threat to stability, as we change from our existing relationship to a new partnership with the European Union.

(Can she deliver?) The PM wants transitional arrangements to smooth the process of leaving the EU with specific deals on budget contributions, immigration, and trade and customs lasting different periods of time. Securing this as well as securing a final deal within two years is a huge task.

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Aid, Britain, Europe, European Union, Government, Politics, Uncategorized

Taking back control of the foreign aid budget

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Destinations and allocations of British foreign aid in 2015.

BRITISH FOREIGN AID

Intro: Enshrined into UK law is Britain’s ill-judged legal commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of GDP on foreign aid which ministers are obliged to spend.

The statement made by the European Commission that hundreds of millions of pounds spent on international aid will be returned to the Treasury will be welcome news for Out campaigners. This goes to the heart of the Brexit cause and why British voters chose to leave the European Union: leaving means that decisions taken in the name of British voters, using money that belongs to British taxpayers, are made by people who are directly accountable to those people.

This is one of the starkest examples of what was wrong with Britain’s involvement with the EU; a situation where large sums of money were extracted from taxpayers and handed to unelected and unaccountable Commission officials to spend on aid and vanity projects about which British voters were never consulted. Regaining control of such cash and such decisions is the essence of Brexit.

But, as things stand, that money will not be used very differently. Enshrined into UK law is Britain’s ill-judged legal commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of GDP on foreign aid which ministers are obliged to spend. This grim irony, a policy which is as unpopular with voters as EU membership was, shares similar undemocratic origins: a political project beloved by metropolitan elites who felt entitled to foist that commitment on taxpayers who did not consent to it.

Taking back control of money sent to Brussels, just as voters instructed, reconciles directly to what Brexit means. The same control must now be restored over the aid budget: the 0.7 per cent target should follow our EU membership into history.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society, Terrorism, United States

2017 will be a year of major challenges

CHALLENGES, RISKS & CHANGE

Intro: There is a sense that the unglamorous hard grind will start to bear down on the detailed practicalities of change during 2017

Following the shocks and political reverberations of 2016 it should come as no surprise that relatively few have jumped forth with confident predictions for the year ahead. Yet apprehension over the future is high as the effects of the past 12 months crystallise in the weeks and months ahead.

Identifying the reasons as to why many are fearful will not be difficult. Nonetheless, buoyant financial markets in both America and the UK over the last few days have seen record highs. Businesses are sensing opportunities under a Trump administration that is pledging a boost to federal government spending on infrastructure as well as a major overhaul to the tax code in the United States. This is likely to lead to tax cuts for households and firms alike. Here in the UK, estimates for third-quarter growth have been revised up to 0.6 per cent on quarter, while household and consumer spending has been boosted by high employment and a relatively modest growth in real incomes. Hitherto, while a notable slowdown is expected over 2017, the dire predictions of economic recession in the wake of the EU referendum vote have proved overly pessimistic and we are starting the New Year from a much firmer base than many had predicted.

But major uncertainty persists over Brexit. The calls by the Scottish Government for Scotland to remain in the Single Market, and the issue as to whether beneficial trading relationships can be established with other EU countries, are clear examples of the muddle and disarray. Whilst lack of detail is frustrating, there is a notable mood across the business world to make the best of our situation and by getting on with the job. The depreciation and fall in the value of sterling offers opportunities for UK firms to boost exports and for many firms in the food and drink sector to build a presence in overseas markets. In Scotland, our tourism and events sector, spanning hotels, hospitality and conference catering, stands to benefit.

There is a sense that the unglamorous hard grind will start to bear down on the detailed practicalities of change during 2017. The focus is likely to be upon legislative changes. However, we also face an elevated degree of geo-political risk. Recent terrorist attacks across Europe and elsewhere are indicative of the challenges facing government and the intelligence agencies.

Barbaric attacks such as those in Istanbul cannot but heighten tensions across Europe. Adding further to security precautions in many European capitals, the woes and fears that governments have across Europe for their people is becoming distinctly palpable.

Fear of further such attacks, including the use by Islamic State of chemical weapons, will undoubtedly increase public anxiety and growing voter mood of unease across Europe. The British Government has already warned that ISIS could unleash such devastating weapons on our streets. Voter discontent is also threatening to bring major election upsets in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, the ever-belligerent North Korea has taken another step towards long-range nuclear strike capability. The country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has claimed that the country is now close to testing long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

A febrile 2017 seems likely to pose challenges as big as anything we have faced before.

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