Category Archives: European Union

Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Brexit: Preparations for a ‘no-deal’

BREXIT

BRITAIN will recognise some EU regulations in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Government says this is to ensure that the country does not grind to a halt.

Ministerial papers setting out what will happen if the UK leaves without a deal make clear that Britain will adopt a “flexible” approach to ensure EU medicines, automotive parts and chemicals are still available in the UK.

Several of the papers which are due to be published on Thursday say the “permissive” nature of the plans are based on an undercurrent of “project no fear”.

Previously, concerns have been raised that the M20, for example, could be turned into a giant lorry parking bay because of the anticipated huge disruption to cross-channel trade caused by the EU in the event of a no-deal.

However, away from customs, the documents offer a constructive way for Britain to continue trading with the EU after a no-deal Brexit. On medicines which are made in the UK, the papers indicate that the UK regulator would take steps to keep market access for importers open to avoid any disruption.

But this approach will leave the UK open to claims that it is giving up yet more negotiating strength by agreeing to accept EU goods without ensuring British goods will be accepted on the Continent in a reciprocal fashion.

EU exit talks have restarted in Brussels between Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. Mr Raab, who will give a speech on Thursday, will set out the Government’s plans for a no-deal.

Over the last few days, the Brexit Secretary said: “It is the responsibility of the EU to ensure its consumers and businesses are not harmed.

“The UK Government believes this is best achieved by both sides taking a non-disruptive approach and will be encouraging cooperation with the EU on no-deal planning.

“Securing a deal is still by far the most likely outcome, but we want to make sure that we clearly set out the steps that people, businesses and public services need to take in the unlikely event that we don’t reach an agreement.

“It’s the responsible thing for any government to do, to mitigate the risks and make sure the UK is ready to make a success of Brexit.”

Each of the 84 papers to be released follow the same format, opening with remarks that a “no-deal” Brexit is unlikely, but that “we are a responsible government and we should be prepared”.

The papers – which will be published in batches – then set out “how it works now” and “how it works in a no-deal scenario”, with examples given to allow companies to prepare.

Government insiders have described the papers as “sensible, proportionate, and part of a common-sense approach to ensure stability whatever the outcome of talks.”

A source said: “The truth is in some sectors there won’t be much change, it is a mixture… It is not a case of ‘worse for us and better for them’.”

Mr Raab will outline in his speech how the Government will mitigate the potential risks of leaving the EU without a deal and ensure continuity and stability for businesses and the general public.

 

THIS is the week when we will finally discover what the consequences will be in the event of the Brexit talks failing: the Government’s no-deal papers are to be published on Thursday. Project Fear is largely responsible for any public panic, but the Conservatives it must be said have made things worse. By threatening that the only options are Chequers or no-deal (which is untrue), that have cast no-deal as a cliff-edge rather than a challenge we can handle. And the Government’s rhetoric of doom hasn’t even been clear in its target: is it Britain that should fear more, or Europe?

It would be very rough for both sides, which is why no-deal ought to be avoided as far as possible. But, for many, a no-deal is also a reality. If Britain doesn’t get what it wants – if it is told it must adhere to EU laws, open borders, restrictions on trade and diminished sovereignty – then it must walk away. That warning was clearly laid out in the Conservative Party manifesto.

The only mystery is why the Government has waited for so long to prepare properly and openly for a no-deal outcome. It should have promised that there would be agreements in place on such necessities as medicines and air-travel, or that the technology would be ready to deal with customs and goods movement. It should also have emphasised that whatever short-term hit the UK takes to its economy, in the long-run it may well be Europe that suffers the greater damage, while the UK reorientates towards global trade. And if there is no-deal, we are under no obligation to pay £39billion as a divorce bill. In such circumstances, Brussels should wave goodbye to our cash.

Britain isn’t the only one accused of playing with fire. Brussels might attempt to even turn defence into a bargaining chip. Defence is one area where the EU clearly needs us more than we need them. The Government’s no-deal rhetoric should ram this point home on all fronts: Brussels would be unbelievably stupid to drive away a partner as rich and influential as the UK.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Scotland, Society

Treasonous myths of the Brexiteers’

BREXIT

JUST as an alliance with the EU is important to the UK, European immigrants are also vital to the British economy.

Many people will remember the insidious campaign during the EU referendum debate in 2016 of Nigel Farage standing in front of a poster showing a queue of refugees with the slogan: ‘Breaking point: The EU has failed us all’ – an image that was rightly compared to Nazi propaganda – while others were allowed to peddle the myth that EU immigration had helped to cause austerity. It must surely be a matter of profound regret among leaders of the Remain campaign that they allowed the effects of immigration to be so utterly misrepresented in the run-up to the Brexit vote.

Since that fateful day, various employers appear to have woken up to the serious risks posed by a shortage of labour if the UK leaves the Single Market and ditches freedom of movement (as Theresa May insists will happen).

The latest sign of trouble comes from our schools, with the number of teachers from other EU countries – like Greece, Poland, Spain and Ireland – applying to work in Scotland “falling off a cliff”.

In 2017, some 186 teachers from the EU sought registration with the General Teaching Council for Scotland, but so far this year just 14 have done so. This comes at a time of teacher shortages with some 700 vacancies in Scotland at the start of the year.

Nine out of ten UK employers report they are struggling to recruit staff with the skills they need, threatening the ability of the UK economy to compete. Wages could rise as employers are forced to compete for a smaller pool of available workers, but this may prove to be a short-lived boon if firms with fewer skilled staff and higher costs start to lose business and trade to their EU rivals.

The economic chaos that could be caused by a no-deal Brexit could further exacerbate what is already an alarming situation.

What is equally important is the attitude adopted by our elected politicians towards the EU, described recently by President Trump as a “foe” while he cosied up to Vladimir Putin of Russia.

In a further twist and wholly unacceptable language, Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman has claimed the Treason Act should be amended to apply to “those in future actively working undemocratically against the UK through extreme EU loyalty” because, “like extreme jihadis”, they were “seeking to destroy or undermine the British state”.

We should have welcomed immigrants to this country by freely acknowledging the massive contribution they have made to our society, but instead we have turned them into scapegoats for austerity. What a pitifully poor and degrading accusation.

Now there is a serious risk of another dangerous myth gaining a foothold in the public’s imagination – that the friendly democracies of the EU are in some way our enemy.

BRITAIN will be unable to forge a new trade deal with fast-growing Pacific countries unless it makes a clean break with the EU, a report has warned.

The Government’s White Paper on Brexit says the UK will “potentially seek accession” to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after leaving the EU.

The 11-member organisation, which aims to eliminate 98 per cent of all tariffs, is seen as a major potential growth market.

But a study by the Policy Exchange thinktank warns that Theresa May’s Chequers deal could make membership impossible.

The controversial deal commits the UK to following a “common rulebook” with the EU on goods and farm products, limiting the room for manoeuvre with trade negotiators.

The report warns that joining the partnership would require the UK to have more flexibility over its regulations.

Report author Geoff Raby, a former Australian ambassador to the World Trade Organisation, said: “By aligning UK policy to EU policy on agriculture and manufactured goods, the White Paper will constrain the opportunities that the UK has to pursue an independent trade policy.

“Without being able to participate fully in the agricultural and manufactured goods dimension it is most unlikely that the UK would be able to join, but if it did it would not be able to get the full benefits.”

The Chequers deal has caused uproar in the Conservative Party and prompted the resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis.

The PM has insisted that it will not constrain the UK’s future trade policy. She told MPs this month: “We specifically looked at whether the plan that we were putting forward would enable us to accede to the comprehensive and progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and it will.”

But the report threatens to reopen the row over the potential impact on trade of the Chequers agreement. Donald Trump has warned that the restrictions would “kill” hopes of a US trade deal – although he rowed back following talks with Mrs May.

The CPTPP’s members include Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico and New Zealand, with South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan among those set to join.

Policy Exchange chairman Alexander Downer, the former Australian high commissioner to the UK, said Britain would be “a welcome addition” to the bloc, which would give it “unfettered access to many markets that represent a large part of the future of the world’s economy”.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Leavers say a Brexit no-deal would not be a disaster

BREXIT

LEADING Brexiteers have declared that there is nothing to fear if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.

After a tumultuous last few days in which Theresa May’s Chequers plan has been under fire from Remainers and Leavers alike, a poll shows growing public support for walking away from the negotiations.

It found twice as many voters now back leaving the EU without a deal.

Senior Eurosceptic MPs said it was proof that the PM should accelerate contingency planning for a no-deal scenario.

Remainers have long argued that the consequences of a no deal would be catastrophic for the economy. But leading Brexiteers have admitted that, although it could be bumpy in the short term, Britain could thrive in the long run. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said: “If we don’t have a trade deal with the EU then we simply trade on World Trade Organisation terms, which is how most countries trade with each other.

“It wouldn’t be bedlam. All this talk about crashing out with no deal – we’re not crashing, we’re moving to WTO rules, which is how all EU-US trade is governed at the moment.”

Former Cabinet minister Priti Patel said: “We should be free to forge new trade deals around the world and leave the protectionism of the EU. This is a positive thing we should be celebrating.”

The ComRes poll found 39 per cent think the Prime Minister “should accept a no-deal and the UK simply leave the EU”. Just 20 per cent want her to push on with the White Paper, which critics say is a “half in, half out” Brexit.

More than half of Tory voters (51 per cent) back no deal, compared to one in four (26 percent) of Labour supporters.

A quarter of voters want the PM to ask for an extension to the March deadline for a deal.

John Longworth, of Leave Means Leave, and a former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “There would be a little border disruption if we leave without a deal, but nothing like as bad as Remainers say it would be – and the upsides would be considerable.

“We could free our economy from EU regulations and do huge free-trade deals with the US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.”

What would happen if we just walked away?

. The Divorce Bill

Leaving without a deal would mean an immediate Brexit on March 29 after tearing up a 21-month transition agreement. This included giving £39billion to the EU, which ministers would no longer have to pay, a House of Lords report claims.

. Customs & Trade

The Chequers agreement effectively proposed keeping Britain in the single market for goods and agriculture to preserve “frictionless” trade and to protect the economy.

Customs checks on cross-Channel freight would cause havoc at ports, hitting food supplies and other goods.

Britain could waive customs checks on EU produce to free up backlogs, but it is equitable to ask whether Brussels would do the same for us?

. Tariffs

All EU-UK trade in goods is free of tariffs in the single market.

Trade would revert to World Trade Organisation Rules. The EU would charge import tariffs averaging 2-3 per cent on goods, but up to 60 per cent for some agricultural produce, damaging UK exporters.

We have a trade deficit with the EU of some £71billion – they sell us more than we sell them – so the EU overall would lose out.

German cars and French agriculture would be worst hit, as would UK regions with large export industries. Tariffs could also mean price inflation. But UK trade with the EU is 13 per cent of GDP and falling compared to non-EU trade, which generates a surplus and is likely to grow. The outlook would be boosted by Britain’s ability to strike trade deals.

. Immigration

The UK would immediately have control over its borders and freedom to set migration policy on all EU migrants.

UK nationals would likely lose their right to live and work in the EU. There would be legal uncertainty for the 1.3million Britons living in the EU and the 3.7million EU nationals here.

. City of London

Many firms have already made contingency plans for a no deal, but there would probably be a significant degree of disruption and an economic hit.

Ministers would likely take an axe to tax and regulations to preserve the UK’s economic advantage.

. Aeroplanes

Fears of planes not being able to fly appear far-fetched – unless the EU is determined to destroy both business and tourism. Rules to keep planes in the air are likely to be agreed. The EU has many deals with non-EU countries as part of its Open Skies regime.

. European Courts

Britain would be free from the edicts of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg and all EU laws. Parliament would be sovereign.

. Farming & Fishing

The UK would quit the Common Agricultural Policy, which gives farmers and landowners £3billion in subsidies. Ministers would come under pressure to continue a form of subsidy.

. Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland would be outside the EU, with no arrangements on how to manage 300 crossing points on the 310-mile border.

The EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks to protect the bloc’s borders – something it has said it will not do. No deal could blow a hole in the Good Friday Agreement, with pressure on all sides to find a compromise.

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