Category Archives: European Union

Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Leavers say a Brexit no-deal would not be a disaster

BREXIT

LEADING Brexiteers have declared that there is nothing to fear if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.

After a tumultuous last few days in which Theresa May’s Chequers plan has been under fire from Remainers and Leavers alike, a poll shows growing public support for walking away from the negotiations.

It found twice as many voters now back leaving the EU without a deal.

Senior Eurosceptic MPs said it was proof that the PM should accelerate contingency planning for a no-deal scenario.

Remainers have long argued that the consequences of a no deal would be catastrophic for the economy. But leading Brexiteers have admitted that, although it could be bumpy in the short term, Britain could thrive in the long run. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said: “If we don’t have a trade deal with the EU then we simply trade on World Trade Organisation terms, which is how most countries trade with each other.

“It wouldn’t be bedlam. All this talk about crashing out with no deal – we’re not crashing, we’re moving to WTO rules, which is how all EU-US trade is governed at the moment.”

Former Cabinet minister Priti Patel said: “We should be free to forge new trade deals around the world and leave the protectionism of the EU. This is a positive thing we should be celebrating.”

The ComRes poll found 39 per cent think the Prime Minister “should accept a no-deal and the UK simply leave the EU”. Just 20 per cent want her to push on with the White Paper, which critics say is a “half in, half out” Brexit.

More than half of Tory voters (51 per cent) back no deal, compared to one in four (26 percent) of Labour supporters.

A quarter of voters want the PM to ask for an extension to the March deadline for a deal.

John Longworth, of Leave Means Leave, and a former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “There would be a little border disruption if we leave without a deal, but nothing like as bad as Remainers say it would be – and the upsides would be considerable.

“We could free our economy from EU regulations and do huge free-trade deals with the US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.”

What would happen if we just walked away?

. The Divorce Bill

Leaving without a deal would mean an immediate Brexit on March 29 after tearing up a 21-month transition agreement. This included giving £39billion to the EU, which ministers would no longer have to pay, a House of Lords report claims.

. Customs & Trade

The Chequers agreement effectively proposed keeping Britain in the single market for goods and agriculture to preserve “frictionless” trade and to protect the economy.

Customs checks on cross-Channel freight would cause havoc at ports, hitting food supplies and other goods.

Britain could waive customs checks on EU produce to free up backlogs, but it is equitable to ask whether Brussels would do the same for us?

. Tariffs

All EU-UK trade in goods is free of tariffs in the single market.

Trade would revert to World Trade Organisation Rules. The EU would charge import tariffs averaging 2-3 per cent on goods, but up to 60 per cent for some agricultural produce, damaging UK exporters.

We have a trade deficit with the EU of some £71billion – they sell us more than we sell them – so the EU overall would lose out.

German cars and French agriculture would be worst hit, as would UK regions with large export industries. Tariffs could also mean price inflation. But UK trade with the EU is 13 per cent of GDP and falling compared to non-EU trade, which generates a surplus and is likely to grow. The outlook would be boosted by Britain’s ability to strike trade deals.

. Immigration

The UK would immediately have control over its borders and freedom to set migration policy on all EU migrants.

UK nationals would likely lose their right to live and work in the EU. There would be legal uncertainty for the 1.3million Britons living in the EU and the 3.7million EU nationals here.

. City of London

Many firms have already made contingency plans for a no deal, but there would probably be a significant degree of disruption and an economic hit.

Ministers would likely take an axe to tax and regulations to preserve the UK’s economic advantage.

. Aeroplanes

Fears of planes not being able to fly appear far-fetched – unless the EU is determined to destroy both business and tourism. Rules to keep planes in the air are likely to be agreed. The EU has many deals with non-EU countries as part of its Open Skies regime.

. European Courts

Britain would be free from the edicts of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg and all EU laws. Parliament would be sovereign.

. Farming & Fishing

The UK would quit the Common Agricultural Policy, which gives farmers and landowners £3billion in subsidies. Ministers would come under pressure to continue a form of subsidy.

. Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland would be outside the EU, with no arrangements on how to manage 300 crossing points on the 310-mile border.

The EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks to protect the bloc’s borders – something it has said it will not do. No deal could blow a hole in the Good Friday Agreement, with pressure on all sides to find a compromise.

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China, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society, United States

Trump’s trade war is a risk to the global economy

GLOBAL TRADE WAR

AN escalating trade war between China, the US and Europe could plunge the global economy into turmoil, international experts have warned.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) said the battle of wills between President Donald Trump and rivals in China and the European Union has put “economic recovery in jeopardy”.

In a major report on the 20 largest economies – known as the G20 – WTO economists warn that angry rhetoric and rising tariffs on all sides are a severe threat.

The WTO said that G20 countries slapped £52.6billion of sanctions on trade between October and May. A total of 39 new restrictive measures were introduced to block goods from competitors – double the number in the previous report.

The WTO said: “The G20 economies must use all means at their disposal to de-escalate the situation and promote further trade recovery.”

President Trump vowed on the campaign trail to protect US jobs and industries from globalisation. He has imposed aluminium and steel tariffs on China and the EU, and hit the Chinese with extra duties on everything from bulldozers to touchscreens.

Beijing responded in kind, hitting key US exports such as its important soya bean trade. Meanwhile, Brussels has slapped tariffs on American goods, including motorcycles and bourbon whiskey.

The President is now threatening to act against Europe’s prized car manufacturers. Last week, he said: “The EU is possibly as bad as China, only smaller. They send a Mercedes in, we can’t send our cars in.”

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European Union, France, Germany, Government, Immigration, Italy, Politics

The desperate migrants’ route across Europe

EU IMMIGRATION

IN the freezing passes of the Italian Alps, migrants march slowly up an icy incline as they head for France.

The mountains have become an unlikely route for Africans looking for a new life across the border.

Thousands are thought to have tried to traverse the range over the last few months alone, wearing clothing that is unlikely to protect them from the extreme conditions.

Faced with the policies of Italy’s Right-wing government, asylum seekers who arrive by boat on the country’s Mediterranean shores have headed north instead to reach France.

From there they can move on to Germany, Spain, Belgium, Holland and – ultimately, for many – Britain.

The latest route used by desperate migrants is increasingly coming to the attention of populist Right-wing political groups that have risen to prominence on the back of Europe’s migrant crisis.

Already, Italy has swung heavily to the right, with interior minister Matteo Salvini turning migrant boats away from harbours. Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban has made stopping immigration a cornerstone of his philosophy, and young conservative Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called for an “axis of the willing” to strengthen borders. Anti-immigrant MEP Christelle Lechevalier – of the renamed French right-wing National Front, now National Rally – last week tried to make political capital out of African migrants crossing from Italy into France at the ski resort of Montgenevre.

Some 26 European nations are in the supposedly border-free Schengen zone, which makes it possible to cross between member states without border controls. But faced with the prospect of mass immigration, police at several border posts are increasingly turning away new arrivals and sending them back to Italy.

As a result, migrants are turning to mountain passes, ski resorts and hiking trails to avoid official checks.

Snow-free in the summer, the Alps are a far less dangerous hike. And even if migrants are caught and sent back to Italy, they can always try again.

Earlier this year there were reports of migrants using the Col de l’Echelle mountain pass into France through thick snowdrifts. At the end of their eight-mile journey, African migrants would simply knock on the first door they saw.

Up to half a million migrants are thought to be in Italy, despite the fall in the number arriving – usually from lawless Libya – in boats across the Mediterranean.

Widespread public reaction to Europe’s migrant crisis has prompted EU nations to belatedly close off entry points and movement routes (as well as proposed detention centres in the Med to process asylum applications). German chancellor Angela Merkel hailed the migrant summit agreement as a success, with its vague talk of promises of cash for Third World countries to help them control population flows and loosen proposals to tighten border controls within the EU.

But no European country, let alone any African one, has yet agreed to host a migration centre. Mrs Merkel’s firm grip on Germany, which she has led since 2005, has weakened in recent months. Interior minister Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavarian CSU party, was so incensed with last week’s deal that Mrs Merkel’s governing alliance was in serious jeopardy of collapsing. There were fears he was on the verge of ordering German police to start turning new arrivals away (in direct defiance of Mrs Merkel’s wishes).

Last Friday’s summit agreement failed to nail down any firm agreements on exactly how migrants arriving in EU countries on the Mediterranean coast could be dispersed elsewhere.

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