Category Archives: Politics

Britain, Government, Politics

General Election 2017: A Government in crisis

ANALYSIS

BRITAIN-VOTE

The Prime Minister on the steps of 10 Downing Street issues a statement following the verdict of the British electorate after the General Election result. Mrs May insists she will carry on as prime minister, will form a minority government and will seek the help of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party in pursuing her agenda.

Theresa May’s hand is neither strong nor stable. The rapid reappointment of five top Cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Phillip Hammond, is evidence that the Conservative Party retain office but not much in power. A minority Government in the making is the worst possible outcome for a Prime Minister about to enter negotiations with the EU over the Brexit settlement.

An extensive reshuffle had been planned. It did not happen. There was no ceremonial walk down Downing Street.

It is worth noting where we were just before the PM called the snap election.

The Prime Minister had inherited David Cameron’s 12-seat majority. She has now lost that. Expectations that Mrs May was hopeful of more than a 100 seat majority just seven weeks ago after calling the election has spectacularly backfired that has left the Prime Minister embarrassed and in free-fall.

She had a manifesto that had been voted on by a majority, limiting the House of Lords capacity to interfere on manifesto promises.

Now the House of Lords is free to use its legislative block on Tory manifesto promises that have not won majority support from the electorate, such as leaving the single market and the customs union.

The PM needs to pass a Queen’s Speech in the next few days – with the help of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Doing a deal with the DUP has created acute concern among some Conservatives, in particular Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, over climate change denial and gay rights.

The PM had promised to strengthen her hand in negotiation with the EU.

Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now well aware that her hand is weaker not stronger.

We might well be tempted to ask as to what will happen if the first thing being demanded is an exit bill from the EU of tens of billions of pounds as the first procedural step in extricating ourselves from the EU.

Does Mrs May have a mandate to threaten leaving with no deal? If time ran out would Parliament extend the deal? Does the House of Lords feel obliged to pass the Great Repeal Bill?

The PM has immediate problems because of her lack of MPs within her own party.

Many are also furious with a campaign lacking in vision and positivity, but also a strategic mistake.

The May strategy was to alienate “citizens of nowhere” and win over Labour working class heartlands. It failed.

On Thursday, probably a majority of voters were Remain voters, and yet Mrs May targeted her Brexit efforts at a subset of Leave voters.

Tory MPs report a wave of hostility from young voters and Tory voters too over Mrs May’s Brexit plans.

In London, some Tory councillors and Tory aides to ministers voted Lib Dem.

Kensington and Battersea went to Labour. Even Cambridge, a staunchly held Conservative seat since the 1940s, went to Labour.

In Downing Street Mrs May said only the Conservatives “have the legitimacy” to form a government.

And yet she said at almost every election campaign rally that if she lost just six seats she would have lost the election.

She is still in Downing Street – mainly because the Tory backbenchers can think of no better option.

There is a myriad of pitfalls that await her. Any number could catalyse her exit from Downing Street.

One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.

Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.

The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.

It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.

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Britain, Government, Politics

Are the Conservative Party about to form an alliance with the DUP?

GENERAL ELECTION 2017

As Prime Minister Theresa May proceeds with forming a minority Conservative Government, consideration is being given of forming an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. A shock General Election outcome resulted in the Conservative Party losing dozens of parliamentary seats and will now need the support from elsewhere.

At this juncture, it is apt to ask what the DUP will demand to prop up Theresa May.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s hard-line stance against gay marriage and its opposition to a hard Brexit are issues that could be stumbling blocks in any attempt to forge a coalition with the Tories.

Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party has in the past been condemned by former prime minister David Cameron for its long opposition to allowing gay marriage in Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland is the only remaining part of the UK where same-sex marriage is not legal and the DUP has used a controversial veto mechanism to block any change to legislation. Senior figures in the party have called the issue a “red line” for power sharing talks at Stormont.

Former Northern Ireland Health Minister Jim Wells earlier this year claimed he and other members of the assembly would split from the DUP if it relaxed its opposition to same-sex marriage.

He vowed in April: “Peter will not marry Paul in Northern Ireland.”

The DUP’s stance was previously condemned by David Cameron when the prospect of a coalition with the DUP was raised before the 2015 General Election.

The then Prime Minister said he “profoundly disagreed” with the DUP’s policy on gay rights and would “never validate” it.

The DUP’s stance on Brexit could also cause tension.

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, is keen to avoid a hard border with Ireland and has spoken against a “hard Brexit.”

She has said: “No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that’s what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that.

“However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland.”

The DUP manifesto says the party wants a “comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union.”

The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments.

The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.

Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.

Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.

She said last year that she would “not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England”.

 

 

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Climate Change, Environment, Europe, Government, Politics, Society, United States

The Paris Climate Accord teeters on the brink thanks to Trump

PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT

Donald Trump’s recent announcement that he was pulling the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord was met with dismay by many around the world. But Mr Trump has done what few politicians are capable of by actually doing what he pledged prior to being elected. Many businesses would agree with President Trump, saying that the agreement was ‘a self-inflicted major economic wound.’

The UN Climate Change conference in Paris in November 2015 was a last-ditch and desperate attempt to get any kind of agreement and by getting the reluctant developing nations on board. These annual climate conferences have been going on now for over 22 years. Each symposium, in mostly exotic locations, have seen tens of thousands of delegates flying in for the gatherings and creating thousands of tonnes of additional and unnecessary emissions. Their personal carbon footprints are the polar opposite of what they claim to be aiming for, a reduction in greenhouse gases to prevent the calamities of global warming.

The Paris Accord had many objectives, among them an agreement for nations to have targets in reducing emissions. But these were written into the treaty as being voluntary, not legally binding, and there are no penalties for failure. That of course does not include the UK and Scotland who recklessly passed legally-binding Climate Change Acts in 2008. China, one of the world’s biggest polluters through its heavy use of fossil fuels, said it would not be reducing its emissions until after 2030.

Scientists have said that the ‘promises’ made in Paris amount to less than half of what is essentially needed to stop a litany of runaway global disasters. We may be inclined to ask where the rest is to come from? Population control? Consider the statistical data: 1995 – 5.7billion; 2017 – 7.5billion; 2050 – 9.7billion; 2100 – 11.2billion.

A key aspect of getting the developing nations to agree to the Paris Accord was the commitment from the richest nations to contribute £78billion every year to the Green Climate Fund. This was aimed in helping poorer countries make the costly shift to cleaner energy sources and to shore up defences against the impact of climate change. The UK promised £720million but President Trump has now withdrawn America’s £2.3billion.

Already, many East European states – amongst them Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – are mounting a behind-the-scenes revolt against the Paris Agreement.

America is now energy independent, with its abundance of shale gas. Mr Trump’s desire to un-mothball many coal mining sites in the US by making them fully operational again is vindicated if we consider the enormous tonnage of coal exported to Europe, America’s best customer. Europe relies, too, on Russian gas for one-third of all its supplies. Coal, oil and gas are the nemesis of the green lobby.

China, which accounts for 30 per cent of global emissions, is deliberately leaving its coal reserves in the ground for a rainy day. Meanwhile, it is importing coal from America and Africa. A host of countries – China, India, Japan, Germany, South Korea, South Africa, Turkey, the Philippines, as well as countries within the EU – have plans to build an additional 1,892 coal-fired plants to the existing 3,722.

The theory of global warming and climate science has become almost a religion with a cult following, while the renewables revolution has been an environmental disaster. EU countries are planning to significantly increase the number of trees they cut down and burn, thus greatly reducing the forest carbon sink they would otherwise provide. They have completely ignored the fact that new trees will take 20 years to grow before they absorb the equivalent of the CO2 released by burning.

Crucially, without American financial support the Paris Agreement will collapse. It will do so because other Western countries will be unwilling to shoulder a share of the £2.3bn that the U.S. will no longer contribute.

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