Category Archives: Society

Government, NATO, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

Tensions rise in the Crimea…

UKRAINE

Intro: Tensions rise in Ukraine following the storming of a key compound post by Russian troops in the Crimea

The crisis in Ukraine has taken a dramatic turn as Russian troops have stormed a key compound post in the Crimea.

While no shots were fired, it is the first time the Russians have used force to increase their grip on the disputed peninsula. The act of aggression took place in the strategic port of Sevastopol.

Tensions are increasing as a US warship arrived in the Black Sea. The arrival of the guided missile destroyer USS Truxton has officially been described as ‘routine’ by Washington.

The presence of the US warship, however, is seen as hugely significant just hours after the Pentagon unveiled a large increase in air power in the region. Six F-15 Eagle fighters and one KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker have boosted the four NATO warplanes based in Poland. Twelve more F-16 Fighting Falcons will arrive next week.

The US has been dispatching warplanes in an effort to reassure allies alarmed by Russia’s effective seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

The increase in US military muscle, which will join NATO patrols in the Baltics, came as the Turkish Air Force scrambled six F-16 fighter jets after a Russian surveillance aircraft flew along its Black Sea coast. Georgia has also sent up its warplanes, too.

Tensions have continued to rise following a declaration from Ukraine that ‘no one in the civilised world’ would recognise a planned referendum by the Crimean parliament on joining Russia. Vladimir Putin has again rebuffed a warning from US President Barack Obama over Moscow’s military intervention in Crimea, insisting that the Kremlin could not ignore calls for help from Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Mr Putin has said that Moscow and Washington were ‘still far apart’ on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken ‘absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, south eastern and Crimea regions’. ‘Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law,’ he said.

Moscow is now believed to have poured more troops into the southern peninsula where Russian forces have seized control. According to one source there are now 30,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea, compared to 11,000 permanently based in the port of Sevastopol before the crisis began.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stressed that Ukraine was open to talks with Russia as long as it withdrew its troops and abided by international agreements. In a warning to the ‘separatist and other traitors of the Ukrainian state’ he said: ‘Any decision of yours is deliberately unlawful and unconstitutional and no-one in the civilised world will recognise the decision of the so-called referendum by the so-called Crimean authorities.’

Observers from the Organisation for the Security and Co-operation in Europe, including three British Army officers, have been refused entry to Crimea by armed militia which are said to have been growing in numbers in recent days.

It has been reported that Serbian nationalists and paramilitaries had travelled to the area and were now patrolling the streets alongside Russian Cossacks. Reports indicate they were seen wearing ‘Chetnik’ badges of the Serbian nationalist guerrilla force blamed for carrying out ‘ethnic cleansing’ during the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

In a sign of further Russian pressure on the interim government in Kiev, Russian energy giant Gazprom said it would cut off gas exports if a £1.3 billion debt was not settled by Ukraine. Chief executive Alexi Miller warned: ‘We cannot deliver gas for free.’ Moscow last cut off Ukraine’s gas in 2009, halting supplies to much of the EU, which also caused disruptions in Britain.

Russia’s foreign ministry said NATOs decision to curb its co-operation with Moscow showed a ‘biased and prejudiced approach’ over Ukraine.

China has also stepped in to say that a political solution rather than sanctions against Russia was the best way to resolve the crisis.

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Economic, European Union, Foreign Affairs, Government, Russia, Society, United Nations, United States

Diplomacy can help Ukraine survive. A military intervention by the west in Crimea is not an option…

Intro: The hard fact is that Russia, while a major part of the problem, also has to be part of the solution

The Russian defence ministry denied issuing an ultimatum to the Ukraine military positioned in Crimea that they would be attacked if they did not surrender by 3 am today. Russia claims this is but one of a number of provocations that has been issued, by whom it is not entirely clear. For many observers, though, this is a clear signal that Russian forces are intent in pushing into Crimea by having a head-on confrontation with Ukraine’s military. Quite probably, it is a Russian manoeuvre which sends out a blunt and sinister message – we are here to stay in Crimea to protect Russian interests and any calls for us to depart will fall on deaf ears.

Indeed, the strategic importance of Crimea to Russia is difficult to understate. It contains Russia’s main Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol. Without it, sea-lane transit to the Mediterranean becomes a lot harder, and any loss of such an asset would make Russia look a lot more vulnerable. Despite what others may wish for, Russia is not going to give up Crimea under almost any circumstances. While Europe and the United States can only hope that Russia will relinquish its Crimean stranglehold, many will acknowledge the lack of leverage the west has. Vladimir Putin can claim to be protecting his citizens in eastern and southern Ukraine against what has become a chaotic state where law does not rule. The history of Crimea clearly shows that this is a state which is hostile and threatening to its people.

Diplomacy is the west’s only tool and it has to recognise this. There is no question that military action can be taken in response. The hard fact is that Russia, while a major part of the problem, also has to be part of the solution. For how will restoring a lasting normalisation of life in Ukraine be possible unless Russia is part of that process?

Whilst tacticians will surely be right in their riposte that before normalisation can begin, the sabre-rattling has to stop and the military manoeuvring ended. But it is hardly something now that can be stopped overnight.

Coupled with the risk of military fighting breaking out, there is also the possibility that civilian groups might start attacking each other. Crimea is a state of some six religions and encompasses a wide and ethnic diversity. With ethnic and national tensions already inflamed, and with the rule of law so fractured, police forces would struggle to cope given that they are already notoriously distrusted. Restoring calm is urgently needed.

This is where western diplomacy can play a major role. Mr Putin can be threatened with diplomatic and economic isolation, such as those already issued by the United States and the European Union, but he can also be offered sweeteners in the form of emergency money that Ukraine will need to function and for it to repay its debts to Russia.

The task in resolving the dispute in Crimea is becoming increasingly more difficult by the day. This will not be helped if shots are fired which would risk provoking a major conflict.

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Britain, Economic, Foreign Affairs, G8, Government, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United Nations, United States

Restraint by the West over Ukraine is needed…

UKRAINE

Intro: Mr Kerry infers a Russian policy of the playground bully, laying claim to another country’s territory and assets, because – perhaps accurately in calculation – there is no one with the strength to defy him

Throughout history, a host of rules have been built up about how nations should relate to one another. International diplomacy, largely a game of manners and etiquette, seeks to operate through points of protocol. A president, for example, as head of state, will outrank the standing of that country’s prime minister. But these rules may also be fundamental points of law, where the use of force, say, removes another country’s territorial sovereignty. In such circumstances, ostracism has to be the best punishment.

Diplomacy, as it happens, is also a game of power. When a nation with vast power and strength confronts one that has very little, there is not much the weaker party can do. This is reflective of what we are now seeing between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is likely to claim that by occupying Crimea is solely to do with protecting ethnic Russians and his country’s strategic interests. Such an argument was used by Mr Putin when Russian forces invaded Georgia in 2008 (in claiming the tiny mountain enclave of South Ossetia). The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, has said, however, that this should be deemed in the pretext of being ‘completely trumped-up.’ Mr Kerry infers a Russian policy of the playground bully, laying claim to another country’s territory and assets, because – perhaps accurately in calculation – there is no one with the strength to defy him.

This has become a crucial question for the West. Russia refuses to be constrained by international niceties, not only with its neighbours, but others too. Consider the example in Britain. Even if the Kremlin did not sanction the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian turned British spy, on British soil, it certainly did its level best to block and impede the investigation. If Mr Putin is willing to flagrantly breach the rules of the club of nations, why, then, should he be allowed to profit from membership?

While we should not be arguing that East-West relations be thrown back towards a Cold War philosophy, it is right that Western leaders question why Russia is worthy of G8 membership on its current form. Sochi was to play host to G8 in June, but that is now in jeopardy following Russian military manoeuvres in Ukraine.

It is generally accepted that there is little we or our allies can do, other than supporting the new government as best we can on the ground in Ukraine. Whether Mr Putin aims to seize wider territory in Ukraine, a gamble which seems unlikely, there is little doubt that Crimea is now de facto Russian territory and has been annexed.

Western countries will be fearful of confrontation with Russia, because it can seriously hurt Europe (at least in the short-term, economically). Russia controls the levers of oil and gas that flows through the Siberian Straits, any disruption to Europe would be hugely costly.

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