Category Archives: Society

Britain, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Government contingencies needed if Brexit fails to deliver a trade deal

BRITAIN

Intro: We will all shortly find out precisely where we stand as Theresa May triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

In an era of political turbulence, the weeks and months ahead promise to be momentous in recent British history. The passage of the Parliamentary Bill to begin the process of leaving the EU is now complete. The legislative reality of the bill will now make possible the decision that was taken by the British electorate almost nine months ago.

Some people argue that this process has taken far too long, but the political upheaval that followed the referendum and the protracted court case over parliamentary sovereign rights have delayed matters. In many ways, though, this should have been hugely advantageous for the Government. It has had time to prepare for what promises to be the most complex set of international negotiations since we sought entry into the Common Market and EEC in the early Seventies. Indeed, given the complexities, they will pale into insignificance by comparison with what lies ahead for the British prime minister and her team.

A report from the Commons foreign affairs committee urged the Government to devise a contingency plan in the event of Britain leaving the EU with no deal and said it would be a ‘dereliction of duty’ not to prepare for such an eventuality. This point is well borne out if we consider that reverting to basic World Trade Organisation rules will leave us facing trade barriers and increasing levels of tariffs on trade. The country clearly needs to know before we leave what a “no deal” will entail.

The biggest danger is that British pragmatism will clash with EU romanticism. While a deal allowing British goods and services the same access to the single market they enjoy now is in everyone’s interests, this won’t necessarily be the view held on the Continent, especially in Brussels.

There is a risk that this process, once handed over to the European Commission by the Council of Ministers, will become enmired in the very bureaucracy that led Britain to lose faith in the whole project. While some of Europe’s elected politicians might be inclined to recognise the good sense of a British position they will likely become too distracted by their own domestic politics to focus on ours.

Undoubtedly, The Commission will have huge influence over these talks, how they are handled and the direction in which they travel. Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, the Commission principals in charge of the EU negotiations, will be anxious to deny the UK anything that might encourage others across the EU which they too might wish to emulate. The rise of populist movements across Europe, particularly in the wake of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election victory in America, will weigh heavily.

While most should wish for a mutually beneficially agreement, the Government must prepare fully for the possibility that there won’t be a trade deal. The time for further discussion is almost over – even if Scotland continues with its position of holding a second Scottish independence referendum.

We will all shortly find out precisely where we stand as Theresa May triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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Britain, Government, Politics, Society, Syria, United Nations, United States

The Syrian Civil War enters its seventh year

SYRIA

Syria1

An example of the devastating effects that the Syrian civil war has had. A number of NGOs have reported deteriorating physical and mental health in many children exposed to the futility of war.

Intro: The Syrian conflict, one of the bloodiest in 70-years, has claimed almost 500,000 lives with millions more displaced. The war is about to enter its seventh year with no likelihood of it coming to an end anytime soon. But as several NGO’s have reported, aspects of how children in the region have been affected raises great concern.

THE SYRIAN WAR, a power struggle between President Bashar al-Assad, Sunni rebel groups and other militant factions and splinter groups, gave rise to the extremist Islamic State group (IS), which routinely recruits children to fight and has claimed responsibility for numerous atrocities across the region.

The complex, multi-party, tinderbox conflict has claimed almost 500,000 lives, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and has displaced millions of people, creating a refugee crisis across Europe and the Middle East.

What started as a series of anti-Assad protests in 2011 has led to an all-out war that has spiralled out of control. The fragmented nature of the conflict and the rise of extremist forces, many of which are closely affiliated to Al-Qaeda, have led to an almost total breakdown of normal civilian life in the country.

While the progression of the conflict has stagnated in recent years into an ebb-and-flow territorial war, the last two months have seen Kurdish and Arab coalition forces – backed by the US-led coalition – besieging territory held by IS in eastern Syria.

Several non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have used the six-year anniversary of the war to give updates on those affected by the conflict.

In a report titled “Hitting Rock Bottom”, UNICEF gave a grave analysis of the deteriorating situation for children.

“Children have paid the heaviest price in the conflict, and in 2016 their suffering hit rock bottom in a drastic escalation of violence,” it said.

“Nearly 6 million children now depend on humanitarian assistance, with almost half forced to flee their homes.”

The report claims that at least 652 children died last year, a 20 per cent increase in the number killed a year earlier. Troubling, UNICEF believes that over 850 children were recruited to fight for various groups in 2016, double the number estimated for 2015.

Another report by OXFAM has taken aim at the growing wave of anti-migrant sentiment around the world.

“Those who have fled Syria are seeing doors slammed in their faces as rich countries across the world enact policies hostile towards refugees,” an Oxfam report has said.

It has also heavily criticised Donald Trump’s blanket ban of migrants from Syria entering the United States, as well as the British government’s cancellation of the so-called Dubs Amendment to give asylum to unaccompanied Syrian child refugees.

Save the Children released a study regarding the mental wellbeing of children in the rapidly worsening conflict. The study claims that one in four children in Syria are at risk of severe mental health disorders.

The organisation interviewed 450 subjects and found signs that many had been traumatised by six years of war, and were “living in an almost constant state of fear” even after escaping from the war zone.

Parents claim their children are showing increasing signs of aggressive and disturbing behaviour, suffering from bedwetting and speech impediments, and in some cases attempting suicide.

At present, almost all major NGOs are claiming that verified instances of murder, maiming and kidnapping are on the increase in Syria.

Although bombing campaigns in eastern Syria may liberate the regions from the threat of Islamic State, an effective and safe resolution to the conflict looks a long way off.

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Africa, Aid, Government, Society, United Nations, Yemen

UN: World facing gravest humanitarian crisis since 1945

AFRICA

Food Crisis

Intro: The UN has received only about 10 per cent of the money it has sought since launching appeals last month for the drought-affected countries

The world is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis since the end of the second world war, with 20m people facing starvation and famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and Nigeria, the UN has warned.

The UN’s humanitarian chief, Stephen O’Brien, has told the Security Council that $4.4bn was needed in the next four months to address the escalating situation.

“Without collective and co-ordinated global efforts, people will simply starve to death,” he said. “Many more will suffer and die from disease.

“Already at the beginning of the year we are facing the largest humanitarian crisis since the creation of the United Nations.”

The UN last month declared a famine in parts of South Sudan, which has been wracked by civil war for more than three years. But Mr O’Brien said the most serious crisis was in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population, some 18.8m people, need assistance and more than 7m are facing starvation.

“That is 3m people more than in January,” he said, adding that in the last two months almost 50,000 people had fled fighting between forces loyal to the government and Houthi rebels.

Some 6.2m people need help in Somalia, of whom 2.9m are in dire need; 4.9m in South Sudan and some 1.8m in north-eastern Nigeria.

Kenya and Ethiopia are among other countries facing the impacts of severe droughts but their governments have a better capacity to cope.

Famine is declared when daily mortality rates are two or more deaths per 10,000 people and 30 per cent of children suffer from acute malnutrition, among other criteria.

Mr O’Brien stressed that the looming catastrophe was “man-made” and “preventable”.

“It is possible to avert this crisis, to avert these famines, to avert these looming human catastrophes,” he said, stressing that the warring parties in South Sudan were making little effort to alleviate the situation.

The international community has started reacting to the threat of famine much more quickly than in the last such crisis, when 260,000 people died in Somalia in 2012. Many agencies, particularly UN bodies, have started spending pledged aid money before it has been disbursed by using their own reserves.

António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said this week after visiting Somalia that the situation was deteriorating. He described how he saw children dying from acute watery diarrhoea and cholera.

He said that systems were in place to avert the worst of the looming crisis, if money and aid are delivered.

However, Save the Children UK warned that despite a better response than in 2012 some of the mistakes made then were being repeated. Kevin Watkins, Save the Children’s chief executive, singled out inadequate planning and a slow response from donors.

The UN has received only about 10 per cent of the money it has sought since launching appeals last month for the drought-affected countries.

Mr O’Brien said that if money is not committed soon, not only will many people die but many children who survive will be stunted by severe malnutrition, gains in economic development will be reversed and “livelihoods, futures and hope will be lost”.

 

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