Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Middle East, Politics, United States

Egypt’s revolution and the ballot box…

EGYPT MUST COMPLETE ITS REVOLUTION

The events in Egypt led the British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, to say that ‘Democratic change is a process, not an event.’ Mr Hague, addressing a Conservative Middle East Council, last week, following the removal of Mohammed Morsi as Egypt’s prime minister, is supported by history with his argument. The revolution that deposed the dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011 has taken many surprising turns.

Egypt’s election of a president was designed to bring democracy to a country that has been missing for more than 80 years. The democratic legitimacy granted to Mr Morsi, a popular vote of more than 50 per cent at the ballot box just 12 months ago, was a mandate in reshaping the country as an Islamic Republic.

The revolution in Egypt continues following the removal of Mohammed Morsi by the military. But with tensions rising and the Muslim Brotherhood discontent with the democratic process, the revolution that stemmed from the Arab Spring of 2011 is putting democracy in danger.

The revolution in Egypt continues following the removal of Mohammed Morsi by the military. But with tensions rising and the Muslim Brotherhood discontent with the democratic process, the revolution that stemmed from the Arab Spring of 2011 is putting democracy in danger.

But rather than heal the economy or build up secular, civil institutions – a necessary prerequisite given the mix of Secularists, Christians and Muslims in the country – Morsi used his fragile mandate to push through a fundamentalist constitution, while overseeing the country’s descent into anarchy, chaos and economic crisis. The result was that the military stepped in on the pretext of reclaiming the revolution from the country’s democratically elected leader. Whilst its intervention was celebrated by millions who took to the streets, and tens of thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square, the army’s subsequent actions have been a mix of progressive action and of being troubling. The choice of a civilian judge as interim president suggests that the military’s intentions are good, but it has also started to arrest members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a reflection of the dictatorial authoritarianism of the old Mubarak regime.

President Barack Obama said the new government should ‘avoid any arbitrary arrests of President Morsi and his supporters’. That is surely right, for there should always be a space for Islamists in a country on the road to reform and democracy. Exclusion would only lead to sectarian violence.

Yet, some analysts have commented that part of the febrile situation in Egypt rests with President Obama, who has sent convoluted and mixed signals: first supporting the 2011 revolution and then remaining neutral. Mirthfully, or as ironic as the situation has become, the lack of US involvement convinced some in the Egyptian opposition that Mr Obama supported President Morsi. In May, the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, expressed dissatisfaction with Egypt’s commitment to democracy, but, just a month later, the United States agreed to give the Egyptian army $1.3 billion in aid.

American law is clear on restricting assistance to any country whose elected head of government has been deposed by a military coup or decree – a legal provision in U.S. statute which has given Mr Obama an opportunity to show some leadership.

Washington has stated that it will withhold the $1.3 billion if the generals are judged to have staged a coup, and it is difficult to draw any other conclusion. But this threat should be used by Mr Obama as leverage to compel the military to commit to elections as soon as possible, preferably with a clear itinerary and timetable attached. That would be the best outcome and a necessary condition if Egypt is to complete its revolution.

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Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Government, Society, United States

Morsi ousted by military in Egypt…

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's insistence he would remain in power, the country's army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi said Mr Morsi had failed to meet demands for national unity. Despite Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi’s insistence he would remain in power, the country’s army chief has announced that Morsi is being replaced by the chief justice of the constitutional court. The military chief added that he has suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and announced that a new Cabinet will be formed.

MORSI REMOVED

Egypt’s military have deposed the country’s first democratically elected president, installing the head of the country’s highest court as an interim leader.

General Abdel-Fatah El-Sisi of the Egyptian Army said the military was fulfilling its ‘historic responsibility’ to protect the country by ousting Mohamed Morsi, the Western-educated Islamist leader elected a year ago. The country’s constitution has been suspended and new parliamentary elections will be held. The head of the country’s Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, will replace Mr Morsi.

Mansour will have the power to issue constitutional declarations during the interim period and is charged with establishing a government that is ‘strong and diverse’. El-Sisi said that Morsi ‘did not achieve the goals of the people’ and failed to meet the demands of the generals by sharing power with his opposition.

The announcement was met with jubilation and fireworks by opponents who packed Tahrir Square, now the epicentre of two Egyptian revolts.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the long-suppressed Islamist movement whose political arm Mr Morsi led as a candidate, said the coup ‘wastes the will of the people and returns Egypt to tyranny.’

Before last night’s announcement, troops moved into key positions around the capital, closing off a bridge over the Nile River and surrounded supporters of Mr Morsi who had descended onto Rabaa Adawya Square.

Morsi, a U.S.-educated religious conservative, was elected president in June 2012. His approval ratings, though, have plummeted as his government has failed to keep order or revive Egypt’s economy. The chaos and anarchy, including open sexual assaults on women in Egypt’s streets, has driven away tourists and investors, while opponents say Morsi’s rule was becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a leading opposition figure, said Mr Morsi’s removal was a ‘correction for the way of the revolution’ that drove Egypt’s former leader Hosni Mubarak from office in 2011.

Mr ElBaradei says that by having early presidential elections will allow Egyptians to build together by agreeing on a democratic constitution. This, he says, will guarantee the country’s freedoms.

The Egyptian military dominated the country for more than six decades and took direct control for 18-months after Mubarak was deposed. Following a previous demand that Morsi offer concessions to the opposition, it gave him 48 hours at the start of this week to order reforms.

As the ultimatum deadline approached, Morsi offered to form an interim coalition government to oversee parliamentary elections and revise the constitution that was enacted in January.

But shortly after the deadline, an aide to Mr Morsi, Essam El Haddad, said that a coup was underway and warned that the generals risked bloodshed by moving against Morsi.

Others, however, such as Naguib Abadeer, a member of the opposition Free Egyptians Party, said what was under way was ‘not by any means a military coup’ but more of a ‘revolution’. Some have even said Morsi has been beaten by mob rule.

Morsi lost his legitimacy in November, when he declared courts could not review his decrees and ousted the country’s prosecutor-general. And concerns were raised that the Muslim Brotherhood had ‘hijacked the vote of the people’ by running on a religious platform, decrying that elections had not been democratic.

The United States, Egypt’s leading ally, has urged all parties to come to a peaceful resolution to the ‘tense and fast-moving’ situation.

Washington has supplied Egypt’s military with tens of billions in support and equipment spanning more than 30 years. Under U.S. law, that support could be cut off if a coup has materialised, but the State Department has said that a thorough analysis will be required before any decision is made on continued support for Egypt. Washington itself has not described the military takeover as a coup.

Mr Morsi’s government was already crumbling before his departure. Five cabinet ministers had already resigned this week, including Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr. Former Prosecutor-General Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud will meet today with the Supreme Judicial Council to be re-confirmed in the post. Mahmoud had been ousted following the 2011 revolution through changes that Mr Morsi had made to last November’s constitutional declarations. But Mahmoud’s return will signify a tilt towards Mubrak-era officials over Muslim Brotherhood loyalists.

In addition, 30 members of the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament, have resigned.

Mr Morsi’s numerous and adamant supporters point out that he is the legitimate president and say that opponents seeking to depose him are circumventing the democratic process.

A FRAGILE PEACE

The Muslim Brotherhood Islamists will not take kindly to their government being overthrown by a military style coup just 12-months after it was installed by a popular vote. When Hosni Mubarak was toppled from power in 2011, there was always a danger that the West would cheer on the revolution that might unwittingly have unleashed the forces of radical Islam. So it proved.

Yet, the election last year of a Muslim Brotherhood government should not have come as any great surprise. Mubarak had so dismantled the normal political processes inside Egypt that the only two remaining institutions were the army and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, though effectively banned, had worked away for 80 years at the grass-roots level and was the only party in a position to profit from the country’s move to democracy.

Crucially, however, what President Mohammed Morsi failed to understand was that his electoral victory obliged him to reach out to those who did not support the Brotherhood. Mr Morsi was in a position to claim democratic legitimacy, but only up to a point. As the beneficiary of a revolution, he should have led an inclusive administration that recognised and acknowledged the powerful secular instincts of a large section of Egyptian society.

Instead, what had been witnessed was a country being taken on a journey down the road to an Islamist future that alienated many of those who had been at the forefront of the 2011 uprising. The rights of women were curtailed, sharia law was imposed and the tourists on whom Egypt’s economy relied stayed away.

Last weekend, the people once again poured onto the streets and into Tahrir Square demanding reforms. Morsi’s obduracy dug in further and, with the country on the brink, the military stepped in. Once the generals had issued their ultimatum to Egypt’s political leaders to sort out their differences, Mr Morsi’s fate was unquestionably sealed.

The constitution has now been suspended and new elections will be held to form a government of national unity, which might at least spare Egypt the prospect of a ghastly civil war. We should remember, though, that the last time an army in an Arab country overturned the election of an Islamist government was in Algeria in 1991. That ushered in a decade-long civil war in which some 200,000 people died.

Despite the celebrations on the streets, the potential for serious violence in Egypt cannot be dismissed. The Islamists will not take kindly to their government being removed by military force just a year after it was installed with a popular vote of more than 50 per cent – a legitimacy that no government in Egypt had achieved for generations. Why the Islamists might ask, should they now take the ballot box seriously when their mandate has been overturned by force?

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European Union, Government, Intelligence, National Security, United States

U.S. spying report on EU offices has angered European officials…

A report by the U.S. National Security Agency that suggests it spied on EU offices has infuriated European officials.

The European Union has warned that if the report is accurate it will have tremendous and wide reaching repercussions. Martin Schulz, the President of the European Parliament, said he was deeply worried and shocked about the allegations and has stressed that if the allegations prove to be true it would have a severe impact on EU-US relations. Acting on behalf of the European Parliament, Mr Schulz has demanded full clarification and is seeking further information from the U.S. authorities on these allegations.

Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, the German Justice Minister, said that if the accusations were true that would be reminiscent of the Cold War. The German minister has also asked for an immediate explanation from the United States.

Citing information from secret documents obtained by former NSA employee Edward Snowden, the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel reported that several U.S. spying operations targeted EU leaders.

Der Spiegel says the documents from Snowden describe how the National Security Agency bugged EU officials’ Washington and New York offices and conducted an ‘electronic eavesdropping operation’ that tapped into an EU building in Brussels.

Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic operations in the White House, said he had not seen the report and would not comment on unauthorised disclosures of intelligence programs. Mr Rhodes did say, though, that the United States does work very closely with its European partners and has very close intelligence relationships with Europe.

Michael Hayden, a former director of the CIA and NSA, whilst having been out of government for some five years, said he didn’t know whether the report was true. Mr Hayden was clear, however, on a number of points confirming that the United States does conduct espionage and, that in relation to the US’s Fourth Amendment, which protects the privacy of Americans, does not amount to an international treaty. The former CIA director was also reticent about Europeans looking first to what their own governments are doing in respect to international espionage.

Der Spiegel’s report comes at a particularly sensitive time. The first round of negotiations for a trans-Atlantic trade agreement between the United States and the European Union are set to start next month in Washington.

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