Britain, Government, Military, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United Nations, United States

Kyiv missile deal edges closer

STORM SHADOW

THE visit by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and his US counterpart Antony Blinken to battle-ravaged Ukraine in reaffirming their commitment was timely. The pair announced millions more in aid, which was welcomed, but if Ukraine is to stand any chance in defeating Putin, the West must still go further. 

It is now pressing to permit Kyiv to use US and British long-range missiles to pulverise targets deep inside Russian territory. This would allow it to strike air bases which are used to launch devastating and indiscriminate attacks against Ukraine.

The current restrictions on Ukraine using Western long-range missiles – imposed amid fears of provoking the Kremlin – are iniquitous and show timidity.

However, the mood is changing as both the US and UK have accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of escalating the war by seeking missiles from Iran.

Allowing Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles would mark a major step up in capability, as they have a range of more than 155 miles. By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles currently being used have a range of just 50 miles. A longer-range capability would enable Ukrainian pilots to remain further from the front lines, as missiles such as Storm Shadow would penetrate much deeper inside Russian territory.

Storm Shadow is a precision-guided cruise missile with a maximum range of up to 200 miles. It has a multi-stage warhead with the initial detonation used to destroy bunkers. The main warhead is controlled by a delayed fuse which destroys whatever is being protected inside a fortified position.

It is “air-launched” and can be released from a safe distance. It travels at a low altitude to avoid radar detection and uses an infra-red seeker to latch on to its target. In May 2023, the UK confirmed it had donated a number of the missiles to Ukraine – but with the proviso that they only be used on Russian targets on Ukrainian sovereign territory.

Ukraine’s president wants Storm Shadow to destroy airfields and command and control centres deep inside Russia. President Zelensky needs to eradicate the threat posed by Russian glide bombs; he wants to strike wherever the aircraft that carry them are based. An accurate, long-range missile arsenal could also directly target Russian supply lines into eastern Ukraine and through territory surrounding Kursk province, which Ukrainian soldiers have successfully penetrated and defended.

However, the view in Washington and, to a lesser extent in London, has been precautionary. Permitting Storm Shadow to be used against targets deep inside Russia could be perceived as escalatory. The US and UK would much prefer to encourage Ukraine and Russia to reach a negotiated settlement. They would prefer, too, for Ukraine to develop its own long-range missiles, thereby avoiding further potential Western fallout with the Kremlin.

Financial reasons are also a significant factor. At £2million each, Storm Shadows aren’t cheap. Supply of them is far from infinite and Ukraine would likely use up the missiles in a short time. Also, they contain highly sensitive technologies which, should the Russians obtain them, could reduce the strategic effectiveness of Storm Shadow in the future.

Mr Blinken has said the United States is adapting to change, including how conditions on the battlefield are changing. With Russia having acquired Iranian ballistic missiles, this must surely be justification for the US to lift its restrictions. Ukraine has the right to defend itself. Nonetheless, complicating matters is that the Biden presidency has only months to run, with Donald Trump making clear he will push for a settlement in days if he wins the November election. Any such deal would likely require Ukraine to concede territory.

So, Kyiv must hold on to as much ground as it can, including areas it occupies in southern Russia. It is now or never for Storm Shadow to make a difference.

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Britain, China, Government, Intelligence, Middle East, Russia, Society, United States

Spy chiefs give joint-interview at Festival

US-UK INTELLIGENCE

IN a rare public appearance, Richard Moore, the head of MI6, has warned that Russia’s intelligence services have become “feral” and “reckless” in the way they are plotting attacks in Britain and across Europe.

In an historic joint interview with the head of the CIA, Mr Moore said Moscow is now using criminal gangs for state-sponsored terror attacks in Europe. The attacks are “more amateurish” and are endangering more lives.

His CIA counterpart William Burns said coordinated operations between UK and US intelligence services are thwarting the plots across the Continent and in mainland Britain. The intelligence chiefs were appearing before a Festival in north London, where they spoke of the long-standing relationship between MI6 and the CIA.

Mr Burns also revealed how the CIA feared Vladimir Putin was going to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the autumn of 2022, after falsely accusing Volodymyr Zelensky of amassing nuclear materials for such an attack against his troops.

The CIA chief also said 90 per cent of a new peace deal between Israel and Hamas is complete, adding that its details may be published in the “next few days”.

Mr Moore, known as C by his officers, spoke about how the two services often conduct intelligence operations together. “We will sometimes decide who is better-placed to go first – we call it the best athlete model. Whoever is best placed to do it, we work in a non-competitive way to get the result,” he said.

The MI6 boss said Russia’s intelligence services have conducted sabotage and criminal acts in Britain and in Europe, becoming “a lot more feral”. He added: “The fact they are using a criminal element shows they are becoming a bit desperate – they can’t use their own people. They’re happy to use criminals. It’s just a bit more reckless.”

Mr Moore referred to an arson attack in Leyton, east London, on a Ukraine-linked business, which is suspected of being directed by Moscow. Two men have since been charged for helping Russian intelligence after the Metropolitan Police used terrorism powers to investigate.

He also said the Salisbury poisoning in 2018 was “emblematic” of the recklessness of Russian agents.

“They left a large phial of a deadly poison lying around to be picked up,” he said. “It could have killed an entire school – in fact, it killed an innocent British civilian.”

Two Russian agents daubed Novichok nerve agent on the doorknob of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, which nearly killed him and his daughter. But the perfume bottle with the poison in it was later picked up by a woman, who later died.

Speaking publicly for the first time about how the CIA feared Russia was close to using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine months into the conflict, Mr Burns said: “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 that I think there was a genuine risk of potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. I felt we should not be intimidated by Putin.”

He was dispatched to the Turkish capital Ankara to tell the head of the FSB, Sergei Naryshkin, how the West would respond “militarily” if Russia used nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The CIA chief said: “We cannot afford to be intimidated by that sabre-rattling and bullying. The record shows the United States has provided enormous support to Ukraine, and I’m sure we’ll continue to.”

Mr Burns has been intimately involved in the difficult negotiations in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel, with Qatar and Egypt acting as intermediaries.

He said 90 per cent of a peace deal is complete, adding: “The last 10 per cent is the last 10 per cent for a reason… it’s the hardest part to do. But we will make this more detailed proposal, I hope in the next several days, then we’ll see.”

And he warned that Hamas cannot be entirely defeated. “You can severely degrade their military capabilities, but it is a movement and an idea, and the way you kill an idea is with a better idea.”

The intelligence chiefs – who gave a public interview to the editor of the Financial Times on the grounds of Kenwood House in Hampstead – said China was their main preoccupation, with 20 per cent of the CIA’s resources being devoted to the Beijing regime.

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Britain, Government, Immigration, Politics, Society

Stopping the small boats. Labour is doing well.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

TWO MONTHS after taking office, there are tentative signs Keir Starmer and the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, may just be starting to get to grips with the Government’s most significant – and seemingly intractable – problem. Stopping the small boats.

Recent headlines have been telling a very different story. “Migrant crossings top 20,000 so far this year,” announced the BBC in the last few days. “Record numbers of people have crossed the Channel in small boats since January,” declared the Guardian. Neither headline was from a media outlet exactly famed for highlighting the perils and extreme dangers of illegal migration.

But inside the corridors of Government, they’ve been crunching the numbers, and they paint a different picture. The line Labour’s political opponents have been trying to peddle is of a new liberal administration losing control of the nation’s borders by axing the deterrent supposedly provided by the much-maligned Rwanda deportation scheme.

Yet, in reality, the actual figures show Starmer performing slightly better than his predecessors.

Our new Prime Minister hit the dubious milestone of 6,000 new arrivals on August 27, the 54th day of his premiership. Liz Truss reached it after just 29 days, Rishi Sunak after 38.

Similarly, the period between the start of the year and election day saw the highest number of small boat arrivals on record, with more than 13,000 people landing on Britain’s shores.

But since then, the rate of new arrivals has actually fallen – it is currently 25 per cent lower than the 25,000 who had arrived by this stage in 2022. And that’s despite the warm weather and calm seas of the past month.

Ministers believe there are several reasons for this positive turnaround. The first is a decision to redeploy the huge resources the Home Office was funnelling – and failing – to get the Rwanda flights off the ground. One of the first acts of the new Home Secretary was to move 300 officials off the Rwanda scheme, and on to ordinary deportations.

This produced immediate results. Although it was implemented with little fanfare, on August 23 a flight left the UK with 220 illegal migrants on board. Ministers refuse to reveal the destination for reasons of diplomatic protocol, but it represented the biggest single-day deportation in British history. It was processed without the last-minute legal wrangling and recrimination normally associated with previous removal efforts. Ostensibly, one of the reasons for this improved efficiency is the burgeoning working relationship between the Home Secretary and the Director General of Immigration Enforcement, Bas Javid.

Mr Javid, a former police officer, impressed Ms Cooper during the “access talks” that took place before Labour entered office.

Javid, the brother of the former Tory home secretary, Sajid Javid, made two important recommendations that Cooper has decided to implement. The first was to focus on the removal of illegal migrants from those countries with “low grant rates”. In other words, those nations where there is virtually no chance of an asylum request being approved and options for a successful legal challenge are much more limited.

The second was to align those removals with enhanced operational intelligence on where those particular illegal migrants are operating within the black economy. For example, it was discovered a large number of those with low grant rates are working in carwashes, nail bars, and some specific areas of the hospitality sector. So, the decision was taken to start prioritising raids on those sectors. And it’s working.

A third component of the Government’s strategy is down to Keir Starmer’s own personal “obsession” with smashing the people-smuggling gangs. It’s one of those issues that invariably takes him back to his time as Director of Public Prosecutions: he’s wholly committed with stopping the boats. The Prime Minister is convinced we can take these gangs down, smash them, and destroy their business models.

As part of this process, Labour’s Eliot Ness believes the key is not just preventing the smugglers from launching their boats from the beaches of France but tackling their operation “upstream”. In particular, he has demanded a new emphasis on targeting the corridor that operates between Germany and France and is used to transport the large dinghies that carry the migrants to the South Coast of England. A crackdown on human-traffickers is very much a priority for Sir Keir Starmer’s Government. Mr Ness is the US lawman whose team of Untouchables brought down Al Capone.

Analysis by the National Crime Agency indicates the clampdown is already having an impact. The larger dinghies operated by the smugglers carry an average of 50 people. Since 2018 there have been 32 instances of boats with higher occupancy rates, and a third of those have been intercepted since the election.

In addition, UK and French border officers have noticed an increasing number of engine failures and dinghies failing to make it out of French waters.

This shows the smugglers are finding it more difficult to secure the boats and equipment they need to facilitate the crossings – helped by shutting the German corridor. But the fight with the profiteers in human misery is set to be a protracted one. The Prime Minister, Home Secretary, and their Cabinet colleagues are a long, long way from declaring victory.

They are well aware that the traffickers will adapt their own tactics. And there’s a recognition they are in part at the mercy of the elements, with a mild autumn and winter potentially reversing the successes of the summer.

There’s also an acceptance within Government that to really break the people-smugglers’ stranglehold some major new deterrent policy may have to be unveiled. With the Rwanda scheme deemed a costly shambles, Labour might have to look at some sort of offshore processing model in order to send a firm signal.

Rishi Sunak famously pledged, “We will finally stop the boats”. His failure to do so cost him his premiership.

We will not be hearing Keir Starmer making the same rash promises. But, there is no doubt, Labour believe they are in a war with the small-boat traffickers. And, so far, in these early days of rule, they are doing a good job in smashing the gangs.

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