Tag Archives: Russian Federation

Britain, Europe, Government, NATO, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

The West dithers over Ukraine

UKRAINE WAR

AFTER two years of atrocities, pain, grief, and mass bereavement, the focus has turned once again on the Ukraine war, a tragedy which disgraces the modern world.

Not so long ago the civilised nations of Europe and North America could never have believed that a huge region of our continent would once again be turned over to dismal trenches, makeshift hurried graves, and the unending rumble of artillery fire. We thought we had put such horrors behind us in a new order of rules-based diplomacy and civilised negotiation. And yet here we are, with the flag-shaded war cemeteries filling up and the ammunition factories working day and night, as if it was 1917, not 2024.

This is a war, however, that remains strangely limited. The nations which a few years ago were offering Ukraine the warmth and protection of NATO membership now baulk at the idea for fear of a general war that might inflict on them the dire hardships that Ukraine’s people daily endure. In Europe, the air is full of the sound of uncertain trumpets, as the leaders of major nations dither between naked self-interest – cheap gas and a quiet life – and their solemn duty to protect a vulnerable neighbour against a snarling and ruthless threat.

If the democracies cannot stand together against the menace from Vladimir Putin’s increasingly despotic Russia, they will one by one fall under its appalling influence and power.

Since its inception, the whole point of NATO has been to avoid that danger by invoking into its treaty an assault upon its weakest member the trigger for a unified political and military response – “an attack on one is an attack on all”.

Of course, such an alliance has to be careful not to extend its promises so far that it cannot keep them when tested. And it is more or less politically impossible now to fulfil the promises of future membership offered to Ukraine in 2008.

Nonetheless, there remains an inviolate obligation to help, outside the direct provisions of the NATO treaty but within the bonds of mutual friendship and support that hold the free countries of Europe together. It is not as if the danger from the East is growing any smaller, or that the regime in the Kremlin is showing any signs of civility. The upcoming fraudulent election, which is grotesquely rigged to confirm Putin in his presidency, will only serve to strengthen him at home. From what can be garnered and gleaned from public opinion in the Russian Federation, the current course of the war is boosting his popularity, and it would be unwise to assume that he will face any serious internal challenge in the near future.

The deeply sinister and suspicious circumstances of the recent death in an Arctic prison of the Russian freedom campaigner Alexei Navalny is a gruesome warning of just how totally Moscow has forsaken the democracy and the rule of law it seemed to embrace after the fall of communism in 1991.

The state of the conflict today is also a warning that the Russian army, which performed so badly in the original invasion, has learned from its previous mistakes to become a growing and more formidable fighting force. Britain, for its part, accustomed over centuries to defy continental tyrants, has done better than most other nations in Europe in trying to deal with this confrontation.

The Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, has expressed clear and unambiguous support of Ukraine’s desperate struggle. So, too, has ex-prime minister, Boris Johnson. But as the spectre of Donald Trump falls ever more over America, and as US Congress fiddles while Kiev burns, the West still has miles to go and much to do.

President Zelensky should be given the tools to defend his country.

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Europe, European Union, Government, Politics, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

As Ukraine relaunches an anti-terrorist operation against rebels, Russia provides a stern warning…

Eastern cities and towns of Ukraine

UKRAINE

Russia has promised to retaliate if its interests are attacked as Ukraine’s leaders relaunched their ‘anti-terror’ offensive and threatened to ‘liquidate’ armed pro-Russian rebels.

With tensions continuing to rise and the much heralded Geneva peace deal in tatters, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Vitaly Yarema said security agencies would target Kremlin supporters in key eastern cities, driving them from buildings they have occupied for several weeks.

Mr Yarema said:

… Security agencies are working to liquidate all the groups operating in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and the other towns in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

His declaration came after two men, including a pro-Kiev politician, Volodymyr Rybak, were said to have been tortured to death by pro-Russian forces near the flashpoint eastern city of Slaviansk.

A disturbing video has emerged showing Mr Rybak, a member of the Batkivschhyna party led by former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, surrounded by a mob before being manhandled by several men, including a masked man in camouflage. Mr Rybak had attempted to remove the flag of the separatist Donetsk Republic. It is believed both men had been tortured and thrown in a river to drown.

Interim Ukrainian leader Oleskander Turchinov cited the deaths as a reason to relaunch the previously ineffective ‘anti-terror’ operation. He insists that terrorists have effectively taken the whole Donetsk region hostage and have crossed a line by starting to torture and murder Ukrainian patriots. Mr Turchinov says these crimes have been carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation. The aim of the anti-terrorist measures is to protect Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from such violent acts. Armed separatists have already been flushed out of an eastern town on the outskirts of Sviatogorsk as part of this anti-terror drive.

But that brought an immediate rebuke from Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who said Moscow will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked. Mr Lavrov said that Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation and has accused the United States of ‘running the show’ in Ukraine. The Russian foreign minister claimed it was ‘quite telling’ that Kiev had relaunched its anti-terrorist operation during a high profile visit by US vice-president Joe Biden.

Mr Yarema, speaking a day after meeting Mr Biden, said:

… We have obtained the support of the United States… that they will not leave us alone with an aggressor. We hope that in the event of Russian aggression this help will be more substantive.

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk has warned that the risk of eastern regions of Ukraine becoming detached is real. He fears that we will not have to wait long before we see more acts unfolding in Ukraine.

Russian gas giant Gazprom has said it will turn off supplies to Ukraine next month unless Kiev pays its debts. That would have a knock-on effect on deliveries to Europe, because much of the gas transits through Ukrainian territory.

  • 25 April, 2014

As two more pro-Moscow separatists have been killed in shoot-outs with Ukrainian troops, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has warned that the escalating violence would have ‘consequences’.

With some 40,000 Russian soldiers on the border, he did not specify what action he would take, but warned that Ukraine was committing a crime by carrying out a ‘punitive operation’ against pro-Russian insurgents. They have been occupying buildings for several weeks now in ten eastern Ukrainian cities.

The Ukrainian government and many in the West fear Russia is seeking a pretext for a military intervention in eastern Ukraine, where Mr Putin insists he has the right to protect ethnic Russians.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has warned that the situation in Ukraine ‘could quickly spin out of control’.

Within hours of Mr Putin’s warning, Russia began military drills near the Ukrainian border with defence minister Sergei Shoygu declaring: ‘If this military machine is not stopped, it will lead to greater numbers of dead and wounded.’ Ukraine’s acting interim president Oleksandr Turchinov called for Mr Putin to stop the drills, pull his troops away from the border and to end the Russian ‘blackmail’ of the country.

Ukrainian forces are now stationed around the eastern city of Slaviansk in an ostensible preparation for an assault. Stella Khorosheva, a spokesperson for the pro-Russian insurgents, insisted fighters would ‘repel the troops’, and said they are ready to ‘repeat Stalingrad’.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Financial Markets, Government, Politics, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

What will happen next following the crisis in Ukraine?

ECONOMIC REALITIES

Intro: Economic havoc and a global slump could materialise from the crisis in the Crimea

So far, financial markets in the West have remained remarkably undisturbed in the face of the crisis unfolding in Ukraine. Following Crimea’s referendum at the weekend, which effectively sealed Vladimir Putin’s grip of the Ukrainian peninsula, sanctions were always likely to follow. Whilst, then, we may anticipate just how long the sanguine calm will continue, Western leaders should also be careful of supplanting diplomacy with threats to Russia that they are unwilling or unable to back up. The decision by the European Union and United States to impose sanctions on several Russian officials is a limited response to the breach of international law that has taken place in Crimea. The measures include travel bans and the freezing of assets against individuals who were deemed to have played a major role in the referendum – a vote, officials say, in which 97 per cent of voters backed a breakaway from Ukraine and, instead, opted to join the Russian Federation.

In the years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has steadily become more integrated into the global economy. We know that many rich Russians have shifted their gains (ill-gotten or otherwise) into more stable and secure environments, such as investing on the London Stock Exchange or by diversifying their stocks in the UK property market. In actual fact, more money has flowed into Russia than out. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, foreign owned banks have lent the country at least $260 billion. That is nearly double the value of its estimated assets in the West. As a consequence, Russia’s bilateral trade has risen to more than $100 billion annually. Almost a third of Europe’s gas, coal and oil imports come from Russia, and there has been a huge upsurge in direct investment by foreign firms.

Rhetoric used by the international community implied that there would be consequences if the referendum went ahead while the peninsula was still occupied by Russian troops. No doubt, Mr Putin will have considered the penalty a price worth paying. The question now, though, is what will happen next. Washington insists the screw will be tightened if the situation were to escalate in Ukraine – a distinct possibility that could happen fairly swiftly since the aim of the Crimean separatists is to secede from Ukraine within a month. They also aspire to adopt the rouble and by joining the Russian time-zone.

Whilst a military response to Russian aggression has already been ruled out by Western leaders, meaningful sanctions are not really much of an option, either. A full-blown trade-war would inflict serious damage on both sides. However, capital flows between Russia and the West are already in a parlous state in anticipation of lesser action, including assets freezes and travel restrictions already imposed. In order to defend the rouble, Russians are withdrawing billions from Western banks and selling off US Treasury Bonds. Mr Putin also raised interest rates to 7 per cent; a move that will discourage capital outflights from Russia to the West, a rate of interest that will be far more attractive for Russians to invest at home. The West seems certain to reciprocate by dumping Russian assets.

Yet, this all comes at a particularly delicate time for the world economy. Emerging markets, including China, have rapidly slowed down; the Eurozone is expecting a period of deflation to start anytime soon; and, America’s economy has started to inflict severe withdrawal symptoms to many countries around the world following its tapering of quantitative easing. The global economy may be just one sharp shock away from lurching into another recession.

A standoff with Russia over Crimea’s breakaway is the last thing the world needs. Economic considerations cannot surpass the higher purpose of defending international law, and as such must be secondary to it. Nonetheless, the interplay between politics and economics is what is making this situation so dangerous and destabilising. All concerned should be aware of just how very much more disruptive this crisis could yet become.

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