Monthly Archives: March 2014

Economic, European Union, Government, History, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

An outcome in Crimea must be fair…

CRIMEA

Intro: The current situation in Ukraine has been described as the biggest crisis in Europe since the turn of the 21st century

Russian troops are now controlling Crimea in the south-east of the country. The chaos in the former Soviet state is the most troubling development on European soil since the turn of the millennium. The crisis has all the hallmarks of a 20th century conflict; one that resembles the days of the Cold War, or even beyond it. The American missile destroyer USS Truxton has arrived in the Black Sea and will permitted to stay there for a period of only 21 days under the Montreux Convention, an international agreement that allows a warship of any non-Black Sea country to be in its waters.

Whilst European leaders have spoken about ramping up tough diplomatic measures against Russia, Vladimir Putin is unperturbed and so far seems untroubled by the prospect of their disapproval. Mr Putin is determined to see the Crimean peninsula become part of his wider Russian Federation, particularly given the economic advantages to the Russian economy of its offshore gas fields. There also remains a strong pro-Russian element in the Crimea, a factor that Mr Putin will wish to capitalise upon. It was, after all, fierce disagreement over whether Ukraine should forge closer links with the European Union or Putin’s Russia which brought about the crisis in the first place. The very idea that former Soviet states be integrated into the European Union is an anathema to Mr Putin as he seeks, instead, to build a Russian dominated Eurasia Union.

The American missile destroyer USS Truxton has arrived in the Black Sea and will permitted to stay there for a period of only 21 days under the Montreux Convention.

The American missile destroyer USS Truxton has arrived in the Black Sea and will permitted to stay there for a period of only 21 days under the Montreux Convention.

But with European measures to find a solution reaping little success, the arrival of a US destroyer in the region seems likely only to exacerbate the situation. Russia has a strong naval presence in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, the deployment of US gunboat diplomacy surely misreads the temperature in the Ukraine and the temperament of the Russian president. The Americans insist that Truxton is merely participating in a ‘planned exercise’, but the timing of its arrival will be more suspicious to those who doubt such an announcement.

Observers and analysts have turned to the 20th century to draw parallels with the actions that led to both world wars. It is not unthinkable that the crisis in Ukraine could be allowed to escalate with similar consequences.

On 16 March, the people of Crimea will be offered two choices in a referendum – they can either vote to become subjects of the Russian Federation or by favouring the restoration of the 1992 Crimean constitution (which would be a declaration of independence from Ukraine). Transparent democracy seems the only hope for a peaceful solution.

Crucially, however, this referendum doesn’t offer citizens the choice to remain with the status quo, with Crimea as an autonomous republic within Ukraine. The options on offer are either to join with Russia or declare independence, then join with Russia soon after.

The referendum has no credibility. How can it be when the outcomes it promises amount to no more than a stitch-up? The West should be concerned that the people will be asked to make a decision while their homeland has effectively been seized by Russian forces. Putin may tell the world that his troops are there to protect Russian speaking people, but that argument ran out the very moment Russian soldiers displayed their intention to protect by pointing their threatening weapons in the direction of their Ukrainian counterparts.

Mr Putin’s troubling empire-building is at the heart of the issue. It may well be that a majority of the people of Crimea will choose to enter the Russian fold. We would have no concerns if such a transition took place openly and democratically, and in full view of the world. A vote is needed that is open, honest and fair, and a plebiscite that is carried out without Russian soldiers prowling the streets.

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Government, NATO, Russia, Society, Ukraine, United States

Tensions rise in the Crimea…

UKRAINE

Intro: Tensions rise in Ukraine following the storming of a key compound post by Russian troops in the Crimea

The crisis in Ukraine has taken a dramatic turn as Russian troops have stormed a key compound post in the Crimea.

While no shots were fired, it is the first time the Russians have used force to increase their grip on the disputed peninsula. The act of aggression took place in the strategic port of Sevastopol.

Tensions are increasing as a US warship arrived in the Black Sea. The arrival of the guided missile destroyer USS Truxton has officially been described as ‘routine’ by Washington.

The presence of the US warship, however, is seen as hugely significant just hours after the Pentagon unveiled a large increase in air power in the region. Six F-15 Eagle fighters and one KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker have boosted the four NATO warplanes based in Poland. Twelve more F-16 Fighting Falcons will arrive next week.

The US has been dispatching warplanes in an effort to reassure allies alarmed by Russia’s effective seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

The increase in US military muscle, which will join NATO patrols in the Baltics, came as the Turkish Air Force scrambled six F-16 fighter jets after a Russian surveillance aircraft flew along its Black Sea coast. Georgia has also sent up its warplanes, too.

Tensions have continued to rise following a declaration from Ukraine that ‘no one in the civilised world’ would recognise a planned referendum by the Crimean parliament on joining Russia. Vladimir Putin has again rebuffed a warning from US President Barack Obama over Moscow’s military intervention in Crimea, insisting that the Kremlin could not ignore calls for help from Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Mr Putin has said that Moscow and Washington were ‘still far apart’ on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken ‘absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, south eastern and Crimea regions’. ‘Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law,’ he said.

Moscow is now believed to have poured more troops into the southern peninsula where Russian forces have seized control. According to one source there are now 30,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea, compared to 11,000 permanently based in the port of Sevastopol before the crisis began.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stressed that Ukraine was open to talks with Russia as long as it withdrew its troops and abided by international agreements. In a warning to the ‘separatist and other traitors of the Ukrainian state’ he said: ‘Any decision of yours is deliberately unlawful and unconstitutional and no-one in the civilised world will recognise the decision of the so-called referendum by the so-called Crimean authorities.’

Observers from the Organisation for the Security and Co-operation in Europe, including three British Army officers, have been refused entry to Crimea by armed militia which are said to have been growing in numbers in recent days.

It has been reported that Serbian nationalists and paramilitaries had travelled to the area and were now patrolling the streets alongside Russian Cossacks. Reports indicate they were seen wearing ‘Chetnik’ badges of the Serbian nationalist guerrilla force blamed for carrying out ‘ethnic cleansing’ during the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

In a sign of further Russian pressure on the interim government in Kiev, Russian energy giant Gazprom said it would cut off gas exports if a £1.3 billion debt was not settled by Ukraine. Chief executive Alexi Miller warned: ‘We cannot deliver gas for free.’ Moscow last cut off Ukraine’s gas in 2009, halting supplies to much of the EU, which also caused disruptions in Britain.

Russia’s foreign ministry said NATOs decision to curb its co-operation with Moscow showed a ‘biased and prejudiced approach’ over Ukraine.

China has also stepped in to say that a political solution rather than sanctions against Russia was the best way to resolve the crisis.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Russia, Ukraine, United States

Drawing a line with Russia…

THE UKRAINIAN DICHOTOMY

Intro: The West should have concerns, and these should leave Mr Putin in no doubt that his forceful entries in Georgia in 2008 and now in Ukraine, cannot be allowed to extend to those former Soviet countries – such as in the Baltic States – that are now part of the European Union and NATO, but which also have Russian-speaking populations

A meeting of the NATO-Russia council earlier this week to discuss events unfolding in Ukraine was a welcome development in the efforts to defuse the crisis. Dialogue has been important because not only is ‘jaw-jaw’ better than ‘war-war’, but because of the need to minimise the risk of misunderstandings and misjudgements.

The West appears to have allowed the Russians to annex Crimea without the slightest of physical restraint, a position that has immediately led to the Kremlin redrawing the map of Russia that now contains and subsumes the southern region of Ukraine. The perception that the West was rather relaxed was reinforced when a document photographed in the hands of a British government security adviser appeared to rule out any direct response to Russian aggression in Crimea, whether military action or economic sanctions. There is also irony in the fact that Vladimir Putin says he did not aim in annexing the Crimea, a portrayal that will be impossible for some to untangle.

A political anomaly arose, too, when the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said that Washington was reaffirming its guarantee of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and integrity as set out in the Budapest Declaration of 1994, which the UK is also a party and signatory to. How, though, this can possibly extend to keeping Crimea within Ukraine is not clear. Even if sanctions are off-limits – for the Government will be acutely aware that any British sanctions could soon backfire, such as energy supplies from Russia to Europe being curtailed or Russian capital outflights from the City of London – it is difficult to see Mr Putin being cowed by diplomatic isolation or the cancellation of the planned G8 summit in Sochi in June. No doubt, the Russian leader can probably have confidence in the quickly arranged referendum planned for March 30, which will aim to grant greater autonomy for Crimea, to do his annexation for him.

But the West should have concerns, and these should leave Mr Putin in no doubt that his forceful entries in Georgia in 2008 and now in Ukraine, cannot be allowed to extend to those former Soviet countries – such as in the Baltic States – that are now part of the European Union and NATO, but which also have Russian-speaking populations.

John Kerry said the United States did not seek a confrontation with Russia, but will stand-by Ukraine. How, when US sanctions on Russia has already led to Mr Putin selling billions of dollars’ worth of his country’s gold in propping up the Russian Rouble? Further volatility on the Russian currency could have a devastating effect on the livelihoods of almost all Russians.

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