BRITAIN: CONSERVATIVE-DUP DEAL
IT has been frequently said that this month’s general election was an unnecessary political plebiscite. Maybe so for the Conservative Party, with the ballot turning out to be an exercise in damage limitation. But there has been debate over this summation, with some arguing that the ballot was in fact necessary, because Theresa May, up to that point, was an unelected prime minister. She had been put into 10 Downing Street only by her peers and parliamentary Conservative Party. The election was also the most expensive in British political history. The logistics alone is reckoned to be costed at around £140million, but that figure is quickly vanishing into thin air as details emerge of the deal between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. Having flippantly spent £140m from the public purse to achieve nothing short of humiliation, it has now cost Mrs May a further £1billion in securing again the political power she relinquished by calling an election she was so sure she would win.
Enter Scotland and the devolution settlement. There is a black-and-white way of looking at the deal struck with the DUP to give Belfast an enormous bung in exchange for votes: it’s nothing to do with Scotland, so Scotland is not entitled to a financial kickback. In propping up the formal minority Conservative Government of Westminster Northern Ireland won the election lottery. Scotland didn’t.
But this deal highlights a grey area if not a political anomaly. The Barnett Formula was specifically designed to ensure changes to funding in one part of the UK – in effect, England – are applied proportionately in the rest of the UK. Yet, and here’s the bugbear, its application can be discretionary. Funding can be allocated outside the Barnett arrangement (as has happened recently in Scotland with funding for cities development).
Two factors, however, do leave the deal with the DUP compromised. Firstly, the extra funding for Northern Ireland is to be spent on areas such as health and education, where Scotland and Wales have appropriate claims for equivalent treatment for these devolved responsibilities. The second factor arising is how the Conservatives continue to be increasingly damaged. Their Scottish Secretary, David Mundell, has said he would oppose a deal that “deliberately sought to subvert the Barnett rules”. By implication, this suggests that Mr Mundell must have believed that any deal would be subject to the Barnett arithmetic. What other arrangement did he have in mind if the deal announced doesn’t subvert the Barnett rules? There is no other alternative as to what he could have had in mind.
Mr Mundell’s unease is symptomatic of the situation the wider Conservative Party find themselves in. Mrs May’s authority is undermined, her leadership is faltering, and her days as prime minister do look numbered. Clinging onto power now comes at a staggering price of £100,000 per vote in the Commons, and the only part of the UK where this move will be popular is Northern Ireland. Throwing good money after bad could become Mrs May’s political legacy.
ANALYSIS
. Under the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement, the DUP’s ten MPs from Northern Ireland will vote with the Government not just on the Queen’s Speech and the Chancellor’s Budget, but also on security policy and, crucially, all aspects of Brexit.
. They will also back Theresa May on all confidence motions, meaning it is far less likely that her Government will fall. The Conservative Party’s 318 MPs and the ten DUP MPs make 328 – more than half of the 650 MPs in the House of Commons.
. In reality, the support of the DUP will give the Prime Minister an effective working majority of 13, given that Sinn Fein does not take up its seven seats, while Speaker John Bercow and his three deputies – two of whom are Labour MPs – do not take part in votes.
. The DUP will get £1billion in additional funding over two years – equal to a 5 per cent rise in the province’s budget – with the option to come back for more.
. The deal breaks down as £400million for infrastructure, including a new motorway interchange; £150million to provide ‘ultrafast’ broadband; £300million for health and education; £100million to tackle deprivation; and, £50million to be spent on mental health.
. Conservative pledges to scrap the triple lock on pensions and means-test the winter fuel allowance will not go ahead. But both of these measures were already heading for the exit in the wake of the general election result.
. Defence spending will continue to meet NATO’s 2 per cent target and cash support for farmers will remain at current levels until the next election.
. The open-ended nature of the deal could see the DUP coming back for more money in the next few years – or even holding the Government to ransom over key votes.
. Cuts to air passenger duty at Ulster’s airports and special corporation tax status could also be demanded.
. Some Conservatives also fear the alliance with the DUP could prove ‘toxic’ because of the party’s deeply conservative stance on issues such as gay rights and abortion. However, these do not come under the deal as powers are devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.
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