Category Archives: Politics

Britain, Government, Politics

Theresa May on borrowed time

BRITAIN: GENERAL ELECTION 2017

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When Theresa May walked from her prime ministerial car on Friday afternoon towards the waiting media – after having met Her Majesty The Queen – and told the nation she was ready to ‘provide certainty and lead Britain forward at this critical time for our country’, who was she kidding?

Mrs May has neither the competence nor the authority to carry out the mission she describes. Her days as the occupant of 10 Downing Street are surely numbered.

It would be easy to sketch a narrative in hindsight and say that May’s decision to call a snap general election just seven weeks ago was a mistake, that she was doomed to failure the moment she announced her plan. But we cannot say this with confidence.

What we can allude to is that the Prime Minister ran a spectacularly, jaw-droppingly mute campaign. She called the election and didn’t have the guts to debate anything with her political opponents. It seems as if the Tory party have totally forgotten what democracy actually is. To suggest May ran a bad campaign would be putting things lightly. She shattered her reputation as a safe pair of hands by letting us see the real her.

The Prime Minister also kept away from members of the public as often as she could, preferring instead tightly controlled events where she would repeat the words ‘strong and stable’ for the cameras.

When she had to interact with voters, her demeanour was comically awkward. She grinned and nodded and occasionally shrieked with uncomfortable laughter. In interviews, she was wooden and monotonous, delivering drab staid bromides and displaying reticence to engage that would have further undermined her.

May sought our trust that she would be the best person to deliver on the Brexit deal. But what materialised was the polar-opposite: we were shown just how unfit she is to perform that mammoth task.

The consequences for the Prime Minister are acutely critical and she will not be the only victim of her own ineptitude.

The UK enters Brexit negotiations far from a position of strength. The remaining members of the EU owe the UK nothing and, politically, it is in their interests to make this clear. With nationalist parties across the EU agitating for similar referenda, our former partners will be keen to show that departure from the bloc has significant consequences. There are those European leaders who clearly think the best outcome would be for the UK to pay heavily, a measure that would deter other populist countries from pursuing a similar route.

On what basis could Theresa May be considered the right person to enter these negotiations? She has been humiliated by an election disaster of her own creation. Her credibility has been severely damaged with every other leader across the EU sensing her political vulnerability.

A myriad list of other implications also exist that give cause for concern.

The political solution to years of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland is young and fragile. To date, the most important role the UK government has been able to play is that of honest broker when things have grown fraught between unionists and nationalists at Stormont.

In matters devolved to the Northern Ireland assembly, the neutrality of the UK government is self-evidently important. Mrs May’s dependence on the Democratic Unionist Party to help her minority administration get legislation through the House of Commons will certainly be bad news for the power-sharing agreement at Stormont. At almost a stroke, the DUP finds itself with considerably more political power than the republicans of Sinn Fein. This disturbance in the equilibrium cannot be seen in a wholly positive light, despite Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, seeking some concessions for Northern Ireland as part of the agreement in supporting Theresa May’s government.

Then there is Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson who has sought immediate assurances that any dealings with the socially conservative DUP would not mean the diminution of LGBT rights. Whilst it was reported that Miss Davidson had received promises she was seeking on these issues her disdain for the arrangement was palpable. There has even been some talk of the Scottish Conservatives breaking away to form their own party and constitution.

Many will understand that the Conservative Party did not earn its deserved reputation for resilience without displaying a considerable degree of ruthlessness when it was required. Many others, however, will equally argue that austerity cuts on those who could least afford it has now come back and hit the Conservative Party hard. There has hardly been a fair redistribution of wealth under Conservative rule. It may be best that once a leader becomes a liability they are put out of their misery as soon as possible. Expect another Conservative Party leadership challenge, if not another general election, sometime soon.

A certain amount of fate awaits. Senior Conservatives say May is safe until after the party have delivered a Queen’s Speech and re-established themselves in government. After that, it will be a matter of when, not if, she is invited to step down or face a bruising leadership challenge.

The Prime Minister might have won most parliamentary seats but she has squandered a majority and revealed herself to be far less able than her predecessor. We should be surprised if she has the stomach to fight any challenge to her leadership.

Despite Jeremy Corbyn not having the disastrous outcome that many had predicted for Labour, Mr Corbyn still didn’t come close to beating a heavily weakened Tory party. Even if all other parties are added to Labour’s the magical 326 seats needed in forming a government is still not reached.

Those in the Labour Party treating the result as a victory should think carefully about what they achieved. Yes, Mr Corbyn is in a more secure position than he has ever been as Labour leader, but he remains a divisive figure whose appeal is lost on a significant number of those voters whose support Labour needs if it is to win a general election.

With the SNP also wounded by the loss of 21 seats in Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon still leads the biggest party north of the border. The SNP’s 35 seats are more than all the other parties put together. But the party have admitted that its fixation on independence was a significant factor in the loss of so many SNP MPs, including former deputy leader Angus Robertson and former first minister Alex Salmond. Their seats both fell to the Conservatives.

Ruth Davidson has been the only clear winner from this election. She is gaining pre-eminence among fellow Conservatives and finds herself now with considerable authority in the Tory Party, both north and south of the border. Socially liberal and pro-EU, we should expect her to influence the direction of Brexit.

As things stand, it would be apt to ask whether the current Prime Minister will be involved in the final Brexit settlement. Her colleagues will probably dictate that she won’t be. Britain finds itself in a precarious position as it starts these talks in a few days from now.

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Britain, Government, Politics

General Election 2017: A Government in crisis

ANALYSIS

BRITAIN-VOTE

The Prime Minister on the steps of 10 Downing Street issues a statement following the verdict of the British electorate after the General Election result. Mrs May insists she will carry on as prime minister, will form a minority government and will seek the help of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party in pursuing her agenda.

Theresa May’s hand is neither strong nor stable. The rapid reappointment of five top Cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Phillip Hammond, is evidence that the Conservative Party retain office but not much in power. A minority Government in the making is the worst possible outcome for a Prime Minister about to enter negotiations with the EU over the Brexit settlement.

An extensive reshuffle had been planned. It did not happen. There was no ceremonial walk down Downing Street.

It is worth noting where we were just before the PM called the snap election.

The Prime Minister had inherited David Cameron’s 12-seat majority. She has now lost that. Expectations that Mrs May was hopeful of more than a 100 seat majority just seven weeks ago after calling the election has spectacularly backfired that has left the Prime Minister embarrassed and in free-fall.

She had a manifesto that had been voted on by a majority, limiting the House of Lords capacity to interfere on manifesto promises.

Now the House of Lords is free to use its legislative block on Tory manifesto promises that have not won majority support from the electorate, such as leaving the single market and the customs union.

The PM needs to pass a Queen’s Speech in the next few days – with the help of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Doing a deal with the DUP has created acute concern among some Conservatives, in particular Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, over climate change denial and gay rights.

The PM had promised to strengthen her hand in negotiation with the EU.

Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now well aware that her hand is weaker not stronger.

We might well be tempted to ask as to what will happen if the first thing being demanded is an exit bill from the EU of tens of billions of pounds as the first procedural step in extricating ourselves from the EU.

Does Mrs May have a mandate to threaten leaving with no deal? If time ran out would Parliament extend the deal? Does the House of Lords feel obliged to pass the Great Repeal Bill?

The PM has immediate problems because of her lack of MPs within her own party.

Many are also furious with a campaign lacking in vision and positivity, but also a strategic mistake.

The May strategy was to alienate “citizens of nowhere” and win over Labour working class heartlands. It failed.

On Thursday, probably a majority of voters were Remain voters, and yet Mrs May targeted her Brexit efforts at a subset of Leave voters.

Tory MPs report a wave of hostility from young voters and Tory voters too over Mrs May’s Brexit plans.

In London, some Tory councillors and Tory aides to ministers voted Lib Dem.

Kensington and Battersea went to Labour. Even Cambridge, a staunchly held Conservative seat since the 1940s, went to Labour.

In Downing Street Mrs May said only the Conservatives “have the legitimacy” to form a government.

And yet she said at almost every election campaign rally that if she lost just six seats she would have lost the election.

She is still in Downing Street – mainly because the Tory backbenchers can think of no better option.

There is a myriad of pitfalls that await her. Any number could catalyse her exit from Downing Street.

One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.

Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.

The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.

It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.

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Britain, Government, Politics

Are the Conservative Party about to form an alliance with the DUP?

GENERAL ELECTION 2017

As Prime Minister Theresa May proceeds with forming a minority Conservative Government, consideration is being given of forming an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. A shock General Election outcome resulted in the Conservative Party losing dozens of parliamentary seats and will now need the support from elsewhere.

At this juncture, it is apt to ask what the DUP will demand to prop up Theresa May.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s hard-line stance against gay marriage and its opposition to a hard Brexit are issues that could be stumbling blocks in any attempt to forge a coalition with the Tories.

Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party has in the past been condemned by former prime minister David Cameron for its long opposition to allowing gay marriage in Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland is the only remaining part of the UK where same-sex marriage is not legal and the DUP has used a controversial veto mechanism to block any change to legislation. Senior figures in the party have called the issue a “red line” for power sharing talks at Stormont.

Former Northern Ireland Health Minister Jim Wells earlier this year claimed he and other members of the assembly would split from the DUP if it relaxed its opposition to same-sex marriage.

He vowed in April: “Peter will not marry Paul in Northern Ireland.”

The DUP’s stance was previously condemned by David Cameron when the prospect of a coalition with the DUP was raised before the 2015 General Election.

The then Prime Minister said he “profoundly disagreed” with the DUP’s policy on gay rights and would “never validate” it.

The DUP’s stance on Brexit could also cause tension.

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, is keen to avoid a hard border with Ireland and has spoken against a “hard Brexit.”

She has said: “No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that’s what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that.

“However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland.”

The DUP manifesto says the party wants a “comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union.”

The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments.

The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.

Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.

Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.

She said last year that she would “not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England”.

 

 

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