Category Archives: Politics

Britain, Government, Politics

Conservative Party drop key manifesto pledges from Queen’s Speech

BRITAIN: PARLIAMENT

Queen's Speech.

The Queen’s Speech is mainly taken up with Brexit measures in preparation of the UK leaving the European Union. A number of key Conservative Party manifesto commitments are missing from the speech.

The Queen announced 27 Bills and draft bills as she revealed the Government’s legislative agenda to Parliament.

The majority of the legislation planned for the next two years is dominated by Brexit measures, but there are also details on counter-terrorism plans, infrastructure projects and the economy.

After the Tories’ failure to win a majority at this month’s snap General Election, there are also notable absences from the Government’s plans.

BREXIT

Great Repeal Bill – A huge piece of planned legislation that aims to replicate all existing EU law into British law by the time of Britain’s departure from the EU. It will also revoke the 1972 European Communities Act, which makes Brussels legislation supreme in the UK.

Customs Bill – With Theresa May planning to take Britain out of the EU’s Customs Union, legislation is required to implement a new customs regime in order to continue the flow of goods across Britain’s borders.

Trade Bill – By leaving the Customs Union, Britain will be allowed to sign free trade deals with non-EU countries. This Bill aims to put in place the legal framework for the UK to sign any possible deals.

Immigration Bill – Both the Tories and Labour have said EU freedom of movement rules will end once Brexit is complete. This Bill will aim to implement a new immigration policy for EU nationals.

Fisheries Bill – Leaving the EU could see Britain quit the bloc’s Common Fisheries Policy. Legislation will be needed for the UK to manage its waters.

Agriculture Bill – The UK’s departure from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy will similarly see new laws needed to manage farmland and the environment.

Nuclear Safeguards Bill – Another area in which new powers will be needed once Britain leaves the EU, with international safeguards required to be put in place once the UK quits the bloc’s Euratom organisation.

International Sanctions Bill – Britain currently places international sanctions on other countries through the European Council but will needs new legislation to take such decisions outside the EU.

TERRORISM AND DISASTERS

. A new Commission for Countering Extremism will be given the task of supporting the Government in “stamping out extremist ideology in all its forms”. There will also be a review of counter-terrorism strategy to make sure police and security services have “all the powers they need to protect our country”.

. In the wake of the Grenfell Tower fire, plans have been confirmed for a public inquiry into the tragedy. The Government also plans to introduce an independent public advocate to act for bereaved families after a disaster.

ECONOMY AND INFRASTRUCTURE

HS2 Phase 2 Bill – Legislation is planned to grant powers to build the second phase of the high speed rail line from Birmingham to Crewe as part of the £55.7bn project.

Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill – Motorway service stations and major petrol station chains will be required to install charging points for electric vehicles.

Space Industry Bill – Planned new powers will allow the licensing of new commercial space flights.

OTHERS

Courts Bill – A bid to make English and Welsh courts more efficient and accessible, including plans to ease the judicial process for victims of domestic abuse.

Civil Liability Bill – Plans to cut whiplash insurance claims will see proposals to settle claims without the support of medical evidence and a new fixed tariff for payments.

Armed Forces Bill – The Government hopes to attract more women to join the armed forces with proposals on part-time service, changes to maternity and paternity leave, and arrangements to ensure individuals are not deployed too far from home.

Data Protection Bill – Proposals to strengthen rights and hand people more control over their data, including a right to be forgotten.

WHAT’S MISSING?

. Donald Trump state visit – There is no mention of the US President’s state visit despite a reference to King Felipe and Queen Letizia of Spain’s visit in July.

. Grammar schools – The signature policy of the Prime Minister, which proved contentious with some of her own MPs, does not appear following the loss of the Tories’ majority.

. Social Care – The manifesto promises to reform social care funding, which arguably sank the Conservative’s General Election campaign, is missing along with other pre-election commitments such as the scrapping of universal free school lunches, means-testing of the winter fuel payment and an energy price cap.

. Fox-hunting – There is no commitment for a free vote on whether to repeal the ban on hunting with dogs, which appears to have been ditched.

COMMENT

The fragile conditionality of the new parliamentary order is clear for all to see as the Queen delivered her 2017 speech on the state opening of Parliament.

Conservative MPs, still shocked at the loss of their majority, managed to do their collective duty by attempting to rally behind Theresa May.

When a government has a majority, a Queen’s speech sets out the ways it seeks to change the country. This one, by contrast, contained only what the whips think they can get away with to stay in office. The list of bills was a radically emaciated version of the Conservative manifesto. Grammar schools dumped. The scrapping of the Serious Fraud Office abandoned. Foxes left to run free. The winter fuel allowance for pensioners has survived. Prison reform pointlessly scrapped. Other campaign pledges had been downgraded from certainties to possibilities, about which there will merely be consultation – on social care and the energy bill cap. Talk of an industrial strategy continues, but measures remain over the horizon. Counter-terrorism will be reviewed, as will mental health laws, though defence remains unexamined. The King of Spain will make a state visit, but of President Trump’s trip there was not a word.

The speech contained no clues about the putative deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. Talks continue, but the mood on both sides is getting irritable. What must have seemed to Mrs May like a good idea on 9 June now looks increasingly vexed, as it deserves to. The Ulster party is driving a hard bargain of cash for votes that sends an embarrassing message to Tory modernisers. Mrs May should cut her losses and trash the plan. The DUP are seeking billions in extra cash for supporting the Conservatives on major parliamentary votes. The Government cannot be held to ransom.

On the two great issues of the moment Mrs May said little that was new. Brexit will dominate the legislative agenda for the coming 18 months, but the once-trumpeted repeal bills are now shrouded in extra layers of uncertainty. The government’s EU goals remain obscure, so the legislation will contain many unresolved clauses until they are clarified. Things are no better where austerity is concerned. Facing demands for extra spending on health, care, police and schools as well as pay, Philip Hammond may be eyeing a modest reset in his autumn budget. But the government may struggle to last that long. It revealed today that the UK budget deficit is set to expand not reduce this year.

The Queen’s speech reveals a government without a clear mandate, lacking a clear plan and led by a prime minister whose credibility is clearly on the line. It is frightened of taking sensible action on both Brexit and public spending. Its programme poses an unanswered question: What is the point of this? Unless Mrs May can supply a better answer than she offered today, it looks a doomed enterprise.

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Britain, Economic, European Union, Government, Politics, Society

Brexit: The Single Market & Related Options

BREXIT – ACCESS TO MARKETS

Single-Market

Brexit Briefing: The Single Market

AS Brexit negotiations begin to extricate the UK from the European Union, one of the biggest factors ministers will have to contend with is the issue of the single market. The EU has said that Britain will not be allowed to benefit from the free-trade arrangements once it has left the bloc, a major part of why the EU exists for the mutual benefit of constituent members. So, if the UK were forced to leave the single market (very much against its wishes), what could we end up with?

. The Norway Model

MEMBERSHIP of the European Economic Area (EEA) would put Britain alongside Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, and is what Remainers mean when they talk about staying in the ‘single market’. It would keep existing trading rules but take Britain out of the Common Agricultural Policy. However, we would also have to swallow EU laws without being able to influence them, accept rulings by European judges and carry on paying into the budget (Norway’s fee is estimated at around 90 per cent of the UK’s per person). Uncontrolled immigration would continue. Unacceptable to Tory Eurosceptics.

. The Swiss Model

A SORT of EEA minus. The Swiss are members of the European Free Trade Association but not the EEA. They have a series of bilateral trade deals with the EU, which cover trade in goods but very little in services such as banking. The Swiss can negotiate trade deals with third countries, but also make a huge financial contribution to the EU. They are inside the passport-free Schengen zone and have to accept free movement. This option is also toxic for Eurosceptics.

. The Ukraine Model

A JANUARY 2016 agreement between the EU and the Ukraine could form the basis for the UK deal. It includes trade market access and co-operation on defence and security but doesn’t require free movement or the application of EU law. However, the UK would also require a deal on financial services.

. PM’s ‘free trade deal’

IN JANUARY, the Prime Minister said she wanted a ‘deep and special partnership’ covering trade and security. At the same time she says – echoing the Leave campaign – that Britain should take back control of its laws, borders and money. That means no acceptance of EU laws, no more free movement and an end to ‘vast contributions’ to the EU budget. Open issues include immigration rules, how much the UK pays to belong to EU agencies such as Europol, the ‘divorce bill’ and what the new trade rules are. The time it takes to implement such a deal could give Mrs May room for manoeuvre.

. No deal

BRITAIN would revert to World Trade Organisation rules – meaning tariffs on some goods and services. Likely to mean no ‘passporting’ rights for the City of London to trade on the continent. It would create a legal and administrative vacuum on the rights of EU nationals in the UK and British ex-pats, the Irish border, security co-operation, and deals on aviation, agriculture and fishing. Chaotic in the short term.

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Britain, Government, Politics

Theresa May’s costly miscalculations will be her undoing

BRITAIN

If the Prime Minister manages to survive what is undoubtedly the most turbulent period in British political history in over 40 years, the words ‘strong and stable’ will haunt the rest of Theresa May’s career in public office – particularly after promising us stability.

If things weren’t so serious they would be laughable. Several warning signs over the past few years now look in hindsight to have been more like sirens. Mrs May backed the Remain campaign, until she launched her leadership campaign with the slogan ‘Brexit means Brexit’. There was no need for a general election, she insisted, until she changed her mind. In an attempt to garner support from undecided voters, the Conservative Party wheeled out the sensitive subject of social care costs and how they intended to seek a bigger contribution from those who need support. Appearing without warning after the Conservative manifesto had been launched, the policy was then re-written just as abruptly following an outcry from traditional Tory voters.

But what we have in place of stability is inconsistency, and a real sense that Mrs May will do whatever she thinks necessary to protect herself. Whilst her immediate shift on Brexit was a recognition of a scenario she could not change because of the EU referendum result, no benefit of the doubt can be given over her about-turns on holding an election, and the so-called dementia tax. These reversals were motivated by her desire for power, rather than what was best for the country.

May’s self-interest was again to the fore over the last few days as her political advisers paid the price for electoral failure. The threat of a leadership challenge hovered over the Prime Minister if she did not remove them: many questions have been asked over the level of power these unelected advisers have been wielding, who were also central in the writing of the disastrous social care policy. And now we have the Prime Minister attempting to negotiate a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party . . . to keep her in power.

Yet, this posturing and scrambling around to find a way of securing a Commons majority is likely to be her undoing. The DUP maybe popular in Northern Ireland, but many in the rest of the UK will find the party’s values unpalatable. This includes senior figures in Mrs May’s own party, including former prime minister Sir John Major, and Scottish leader Ruth Davidson and Scottish Secretary David Mundell who have both voiced concern over the DUP’s position on gay rights.

Others, too, will likely object to the DUP’s opposition to women’s rights to have an abortion, and the influence of a party which attracts support from a loyalist paramilitary group.

There is a danger for the Conservative Party that the longer Mrs May clings on the more she will alienate the electorate, and the more attractive an opposition Jeremy Corbyn becomes. And with a further general election looking likely, the Prime Minister’s desperate measures are storing up trouble.

Assembling her Cabinet yesterday before attending a 1922 Committee meeting, the Prime Minister has endeavoured to press on with business as usual. Mrs May told her MPs she would serve them as long as they want her. As the full consequences of a deal with the DUP become clear, including the concessions to be given, she is likely to find that her own future, like most of her recent actions, doesn’t have many prospects beyond the short-term.

 

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